Relations between U.S and Iran has quickly gone downhill since the United States withdrew
from the Iran Nuclear Deal on May 8, 2018.
Last month, President Trump designated the key branch of Iran’s military forces, the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as a terrorist organization.
The two counties seem to be moving closer to conflict with each passing day.
USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group has been ordered to move to the Middle
East.
To know more, check the video on the above card.
The U.S also has deployed nuclear-capable B-52H bomber in Qatar.
Senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander said that the United States's military presence
in the Gulf a "target" and “opportunity" raising the rhetoric another notch.
The risk of a full-scale war is aggravated since there is no diplomatic channel between
U.S & Iran which can be used to diffuse any accidental flareup.
In this video, Defense Updates analyzes the capabilities of the Iranian military and provides
6 reasons why it won't last even a few days in a war with the U.S?
Let's get started.
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Iranian Navy has about 400 vessels.
Though the quantity may not seem bad, the quality leaves a lot to be desired.
Iranian Navy is considered a brown water navy & operates mainly within the
50 km (30 miles) exclusion zone.
A large percent of the fleet is made up of small patrol vessels apart from which there
is a small submarines force, some frigates and few corvettes.
The most potent submarine in the fleet is the Russian Diesel-electric Kilo class which
displaces around 2325 tons.
Iran has 3 of these.
The other submarines are much smaller than these and none of these submarines are nuclear
powered.
This submarine force is nowhere close to what the U.S brings to the table.
It has 17 Virginia class, 32 Los Angeles-class submarine, 3 Sea Seawolf class attack subs
in active service apart from 18 Ohio class Ballistic missile Submarines.
All of these are nuclear powered and have a displacement in upwards of 6000 tonnes and
technologically far superior.
It neither has a destroyer nor an aircraft carrier.
There are 6 frigates & 3 corvettes.
The most powerful of these is the Sahand class that displaces around 2,000 tons.
These are no match to the advanced U.S surface combatants.
American has 66 Arleigh Burke-class destroyer and 22 Ticonderoga-class cruisers in active
service.
These displace more than 8000 tones and are multi-role warships capable of Anti Aircraft
Warfare (AAW), Anti Submarine Warfare (ASW), Anti Surface Warfare (ASuW) and Ballistic
Missile Defense (BMD).
U.S Navy is expected to dominate and should be able to impose a naval blockade.
On paper, the Iranian Air force possesses more than 300 combat capable aircraft, but
all of them are either 3rd generation or 4th generation once.
There are around 190 fighter aircraft such as US-made Northrop F5s, F-4 Phantom II, Grumman
F-14 and Russian made Sukhoi Su-22, Sukhoi Su-24, and MiG-29
The MiG-29 is the most modern fighter and Iran operates approximately only 25 of these.
The air-to-air missiles equipping fighters are far older in technology compared to what
the U.S possesses.
F 22 & F 35 are a generation ahead of Mig 29 and are stealthy.
In this scenario, the Iranian pilots will find it very difficult to detect and target
them.
The U.S with far sophisticated fighters, coupled with way better pilot training and aerial
strategy, is expected to quickly get air superiority over Iranian skies.
Iran has a 525,000 active personnel and around 350,000 in reserves.
Iran's military reportedly has 1,600 tanks.
This includes some 100 locally produced Zulfiqar, about 100 very old British-made Chieftain,
round 200 US-made M60 Patton as well as around 1000 T72 tanks of different variants.
Technical the T 72 is the best of the lot.
Viewers may note that in 1991 Gulf War & in 2003 during the Invasion of Iraq, the T 72s
were quickly swept aside by American M1 Abrams and British Challenger 2.
Tehran also is thought to possess around 2300 armored fighting vehicles, around 550 self-propelled
artillery, around 2150 towed artillery pieces and approximately 2000 rocket projectors.
While the equipment is available in decent numbers, almost all of these are technically
far less competent when compared to American counterparts.
A ground invasion will be bloody but American forces will be able to make quick inroads.
Iran has approximately 1,000 strategic missiles that are controlled by the Revolutionary Guard.
It consists of 300 short-range ballistic missiles, including Iranian-made Shahab-1 (Scud-B),
Shahab-2 (Scud-C), as well as Tondar-69 (CSS-8).
It also has domestically produced Shahab-3 strategic intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM),
with a reported range of up to 1,000 km (620 miles), the Ghadr-1 with an estimated 1,600 km (990 miles)
range and a Shahab-3 variant known as Sajjil-2 with a reported range of up to 2,400 km (1490 miles).
These can’t reach the American mainland but these do represent a significant threat
for American allies like Israel.
But the reliability of these missiles are suspect, none have nuclear warhead and all
of them are land-based, which makes them inherently vulnerable to a preemptive strike.
A diverse array of Surface to Air missiles are deployed to protect these sites, but none
have the capability to detect, track and engage American stealth aircraft like B2 Spirit & F 22 Raptor.
The U.S is expected to quickly neutralize these sites with air & sea-launched precision strikes.
Iran nuclear deal involved the United Kingdom, Russia, France, China, Germany, and the European
Union apart from the U.S & Iran.
None of these stakeholders have favored the unilateral withdrawal of the U.S from the deal.
Diplomatic negotiations are still underway, but it can be said that in case the U.S pursues
any military action against Iran there won’t be major pushback apart from diplomatic saber
rattling.
If we look from Iran perspective, it is most likely that these stakeholders will be bystanders
at the very best or even support the U.S in the worst case.
It has also been seen that NATO as a whole has been able to keep aside the difference
in the past and there is no possibility of it actively opposing the U.S.
In this situation, it can be said that Iran will not find any ally which will genuinely
support it in case a conflict get started.
Furthermore, it may have to face aggressive maneuver from Israel & Saudi Arabia.
Iran & Israel has been a long tie rivals and several incidents during the current Syrian
Civil War has strained the relations further.
Iran & Saudi Arabia have no diplomatic relations since an attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran
in January 2016.
Bilateral relations between the countries have always been strained due to several geopolitical
issues like the differences in oil export policy.
On May 13, Saudi Arabia said two of its oil tankers were attacked while sailing toward
the Persian Gulf.
As reported, in one case an unknown object seems to have torn a hole into the hull of
the tanker.
While Saudi Arabia didn’t directly accuse Iran, things could heat up quickly if sabotage
by Iran is proven.
A war effort requires massive reserves not only in men but also in material.
American annual military budget is around 50 times that of Iran.
Napoleon is known to have said, “an army marches on its stomach”.
In August last year, the Trump administration slapped sanctions on Iran which has adversely
affected its economy.
The sanctions have been expanded to include a ban on Iran’s oil exports which is its
major source of foreign revenue inflow.
More than 150 foreign corporations have stopped doing business with Iran and many countries
like India and Japan have reduced oil imports and may eventually stop buying completely.
The economic squeeze has resulted in a severe crunch.
The Iranian currency ‘Rial' lost more than 60% of its value against the dollar last year
and inflation is predicted to reach 40 % this year.
The economy shrank by as much as 3.9 % last year and as per the International Monetary
Fund, it could nosedive by another 6% this year.
Keeping this in view, it will not be possible for Iran to fight a sustained war against
the most well-funded military in the world.