Good Tuesday afternoon, friends.
I'm meteorologist Tim Pantages
here with your tropical update.
We've got three systems we're
watching across 2 basins,
Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl,
and Hurricane K in the Eastern Pacific today,
September 6th, 2022.
Alright, so here's the season so
far as we summarize today's outlook,
if by the numbers, 4 areas to monitor.
In the Atlantic Basin alone,
we are four days out from the peak
of the season on September the 10th.
There have been five named storms so far.
This season in the Atlantic
Basin or up to Earl,
which is still out there right
now and there are 85 days left
in the 2022 Atlantic season,
goes all the way to November 30th.
Alright, let's start things off with
Earl that's moving to the north now at 5 mph.
It is well north of Puerto Rico,
not currently near any land masses,
but it is strengthening.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is out
in the storm right now and they
have shown a lower pressure,
meaning intensification and also some
stronger. And so it's borderline.
To that upgrade of likely being a hurricane,
despite ongoing moderate to even
strong wind shear out there,
that is tilted the system for the
past few days and prevented it
from really intensifying much.
We've still got that wind shear
now coming out of the West SW,
and that's working to offset a lot
of the convection or thunderstorm
activity from its center.
Although it is starting to look
like it's standing up straighter,
it's more vertically aligned,
and this is likely helping it to
start to intensify and make its way.
The hurricane status here's the most
recent mission currently still in the storm.
As of the recording of this video,
Hurricane Hunter aircraft staged out
of the US Virgin Islands flying into
the storm surface pressure down to 992.
So coming off the 10:00 AM advisory,
it has dropped 4 millibars and
the wind speed just under 60 mph.
But there have been some stronger.
Winds are recorded in that NE Quadrant,
the strongest side of the storm
of winds close to Hurricane force.
Here's how it looks on visible
satellite imagery.
You notice yesterday,
if you remember,
if you watched yesterday's video
showing you how the low level center
was exposed from that wind shear,
you could see all of that convection
that was offset off to the east.
Not so much seeing that this time around.
Certainly a little bit of that
exposure off on the western side,
but not nearly as much as yesterday.
That's another signal that this is
standing up and more vertically
aligned and ventilating a
little bit better than it was.
Despite not much change in the overall
wind shear environment right now,
now it is forecast to strengthen even more.
Getting up to a category two
hurricane and if that that's even
low on the low end right now,
it could be a category three hurricane,
major hurricane and there's
Bermuda passing likely to the east
of there. Now that's good news
for Bermuda cause it'll likely be
on the clean side of the storm.
Usually we say the east side of the storm
center is going to be The Dirty side.
There's the strongest winds,
the storm surge potential there
and also the heaviest of the rain.
On the clean side of things here in Bermuda,
you'll still likely see some gusty winds.
But likely, you know,
missing out on the the main impacts
from the system as it's cruises out
into the open Atlantic and maintains
pretty significant intensities for this
far north like we just saw with Dan
Yelle because the warm ocean waters
are extending to such a high latitude
unusual for this time of the year.
Probability of Bermuda seeing at
least Tropical storm force winds,
so 39 mph or greater are pretty high.
We're up to around 60 to 70% chance
of getting those wind gusts again.
They'll be coming likely out of
the northeast as that storm center
will be off to the east.
So we get that wrap around,
fetch along that system there and
now we've got Hurricane Danielle.
This is still prevalent in the
North Atlantic.
Look at its locations,
latitude 42 degrees north.
It is very far to the north and
out in the middle of the Atlantic.
Not affecting anybody.
Still a category one hurricane
winds just barely at that status
75 mph to be a category one.
And still overall it's a
very photogenic system.
Still looks like a bona fide hurricane
despite being so far to the north.
You can still see that eye
trying to clear on out,
and it has moved away from the warm,
energy rich waters that it needs to
sustain itself 80 degrees or warmer.
That's everything shaded in red here.
It is far to the north of there now and
heading even into cooler ocean waters.
You know,
a general degradation of intensity
is forecast here in the future.
Here it is at a cat one now
maintaining a cat one right up through
Wednesday evening and then it drops
to Tropical Storm and then it kind
of meanders here and then drops his
way back to the South and West.
At that point Sunday morning,
we're at 45 mile per hour winds,
but still nowhere near any land.
Now there are two other areas of
interest that we're watching right now.
Nothing that's been tagged as an
investigative area just yet that's
likely coming though for this wave
here that's just to the South,
South.
The West of the Cabo Verde Islands,
within five days,
it's got a 60% moderate chances of
developing and getting a name another way
that is yet to exit the African continent.
Once it does,
we'll start to see development
odds going up right now,
within five days.
That stands at around 20% odds.
Next two names on our list are
going to be Fiona and Gastone.
If those two areas of interest
do in fact develop,
they'll get those names.
But the wave out there right now,
which will likely be an
investigative area soon,
is way far away from land.
So it's about 10 to 12 days
from reaching land if in fact it
was heading in that direction.
You can see that forecast cone area
takes it in a similar track to what
Earl did and looping it out to sea
even farther to the east of Bermuda
from what Earl is forecast to do.
All right,
now let's jump over to the eastern Pacific.
We've got a brand new hurricane there.
That's OK.
And this is a category one at the moment,
but it's climbing,
it's intensifying 85 mile per hour,
winds moving to the northwest at 14 mph.
And as this tracks farther to the north,
it's expected to also
become a major hurricane.
A category three with 115 mile per
hour winds by Wednesday evening.
After that,
it weakens dramatically because
it's moving out of the warm ocean
waters 80 degrees or warmer here.
As it peaks,
intensity at category three drops down
to a tropical storm by Friday morning.
And notice at the top of the map here,
that's Southern California.
Definitely some of that tropical moisture
will make its way into Southern California.
Modeling here shows San Diego area could
potentially see 123 inches of rain.
That's a lot of rain for these areas.
And welcome because the drought situation,
there is a severe drought
for the entire area,
even worse the farther N
you get a Los Angeles.
So if we get some of that moisture up there,
that would be even more beneficial.
So that's something to watch with
some tropical impacts in the United
States in a place you don't normally
expect to see it until next time.
The latest update for you
coming up on social media.
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Facebook and also on Tik T.O.K.
We'll see you again tomorrow.