BIGGER AND THAT'S WHAT WE'RE
SEEING HAPPEN RIGHT NOW.
MARIA: THOSE ARE HAPPENING AT A
TIME WHEN ECONOCONOMY
TIME WHEN ECONOMYNOMY
TIME WHEN ECONOMY IMY
TIME WHEN ECONOMY INY
TIME WHEN ECONOMY IN THE U.S. IS
STRENGTHENING.
THE JOURNAL'S FORECAST POINTS TO
3% GROWTH THIS I DON'T REMEMBER.
THAT'S OFF OF 2.4% LAST YEAR.
ECONOMISTS ARE SAYING THE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WILL FALL TO
IN NEARLY 50 YEARS.
PRETTY INCREDIBLE STUFF HERE,
JOHN.
I WAS READING, WHILE THE
ECONOMISTS ARE BOOSTING NEAR
TERM PROJECTIONS, THEY'RE ALSO
THINKING THAT THINGS SLOW DOWN
QUITE A BIT IN THE NEXT COUPLE
YEARS.
TELL US ABOUT THAT.
THEY'RE SEEING ON THE GROUND.
MORE THAN 4%.
TEAR RESPONDING TO THAT.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE TAX CUTS
HAVE BOOSTED CONSUMER SPENDING,
SUSTAINED PRETTY STRONG BUSINESS
INVESTMENT.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE HAVING
ONE OF THE BEST YEARS WE'VE HAD
IN THIS EXPANSION AND BEYOND IN
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT
CAN BE SUSTAINED.
THAT'S WHERE THERE'S A
WE TALKED TO HAVE LOWERED THEIR
FORECAST OUT TO 2020 TO 1.8%
GROWTH.
SO WE GO FROM 3% TO 2.4% IN 2019
AND 1.8% IN 2020.
WHAT THEY'RE SAYING IS THIS
BURST THAT WE'RE HAVING RIGHT
NOW WON'T BE SUSTAINED.
WHAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
SAYS IS THAT IT CAN BE
SUSTAINED, THAT TAX CUTS AND
DEREGULATION IS GOING TO IMPROVE
WORKER PRODUCT TEST.
IT'S GOING TO DRAW MORE PEOPLE
INTO THE LABOR FORCE AND WE'LL
HAVE A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF
STRONG GROWTH.
THESE ECONOMISTS ARE RAISING
QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT, THEY'RE
SAYING THEY DON'T THINK SO.
ONE IS THE FISCAL STIMULUS THAT
WE HAVE, IT KIND OF PETERS OUT
AFTER A COUPLE OF YEARS.
THE BIGGEST IMPETUS WE GET FROM
THE STIMULUS IS RIGHT NOW.
ANOTHER WORRY IS TRADE WARS
WHICH WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT
A LOT.
INTEREST RATES, 3% BY 2019, DOES
THAT SLOW THE ECONOMY AS WELL.
MARIA: I ASKED STEVEN MNUCHIN
ABOUT THIS.
I ASKED SO MANY PEOPLE IN THE
ADMINISTRATION ABOUT THIS.
WE'VE BEEN SAYING JUST THIS,
JOHN, AND IT HAPPENED AFTER
BY THE END OF 2019 WE'LL SEE
GROWTH DROP DOWN TO 1.8%.
THIS FRIDAYS ROBERT KAPLAN WHO
WAS -- THIS WAS FROM ROBERT CAP
PLAN WHO WAS ON OUR SHOW.
WHEN I ASKED STEVEN MNUCHIN
THIS, HE SAID I DON'T SEE IT.
>> THERE'S A DIFFERENCE OF
OPINION BETWEEN THE FED AND THE
WHITE HOUSE AND BETWEEN WALL
STREET AND THE WHITE HOUSE.
THERE'S A LOT AT STAKE IN THIS.
DEFICITS FOR A COUPLE YEARS.
THEY SAY THE DEFICITS ARE GOING
TO DISAPPEAR OVER TIME BECAUSE
WE'RE GOING TO HAVE SUSTAINED
GROWTH, THEY'RE RIGHT, THE FED
IS WRONG, AND WE HAVE A MUCH
BETTER BUDGET SITUATION.
IF THE WHITE HOUSE IS WRONG ON
THIS, THEN WE HAVE A BIG BUDGET
PROBLEM LOOKING OUT.
IF WE GET THE 3% GROWTH THAT
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT, THE ECONOMY
DOUBLES IN SIZE OVER 24 YEARS.
IF IT TAKES -- IF WE HAVE THE
1.8% GROWTH THE FED IS TALKING
ABOUT, IT TAKES 36 YEARS TO GET
THAT KIND OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
DOUBLING OF SIZE.
THERE'S A LOT AT STAKE HERE.
WE CAN SAY THE FED -- CAN'T SAY
THE FED BECAUSE IT SAYS THAT,
THAT IT'S RIGHT.
SOMEONE IS RIGHT AND SOMEONE IS
WRONG.
WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT A
COUPLE YEARS TO FIGURE OUT WHO
IT IS.
DAGEN: IT'S UNTHINKABLE -- IT
WOULD BE STUPID FOR ANYBODY IN
THE ADMINISTRATION TO TALK DOWN
THE ECONOMY.
AGAIN, THERE'S SOMETHING TO BE
SAID FOR, HEY, REMINDING PEOPLE,
YOU KNOW, THAT'S THE JOB OF THE
LEFT WING MEDIA IS TO TALK DOWN
ANYTHING GOOD THAT'S HAPPENING
IN THIS COUNTRY IN TERMS OF
PEOPLE'S FINANCES.
AND A RISING TIDE LIFTING
FALLING IN THE MOST RECENT --
WOMEN FALLING IN THE -- PEOPLE
WITH JUST HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATIONS
FALLING IN THE LAST MONTH.
WORKING ARE SEEING BIGGER
PAYCHECKS THIS YEAR THAN YOU DID
BECAUSE OF THE TAX REFORM.
MARIA: THEY BETTER DO THAT
GOING INTO THE MIDTERMS.
THEY'RE NOT GETTING THAT FROM
THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA.
>> ALL OF THE CONCERNS THAT JOHN
RAISED ARE LEGITIMATE.
I THINK IT'S FAIR TO SAY THAT
ECONOMISTS THROUGH THIS
ADMINISTRATION HAVE BEEN LAGGING
INDICATORS.
INCH UP BUT THEY DON'T EVER
CATCH UP.