Bes kata meesham rasdolje, this old Russian proverb,
which has a version in practically all languages, more or less translates as "With no cat,
there is freedom for mice". As everyone knows, Putin the cat has his hands full with Ukraine. So,
as if we didn't have enough wars already in 2022, the old Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
has been resurrected again. (Azerbaijan launches wide-ranging
attacks against Armenia. – Euroasianet) As the Kremlin is currently not in a position
to mediate between the two, Azerbaijan has gone back to the fray with the novelty that
this time it has directly attacked Armenian territory. And this is a problem for Europe.
Why? Because Azerbaijan supplies gas to the European Union – and not only that! It is a
solid alternative to Russian gas. At the time of making this video, Armenia and Azerbaijan
had already negotiated another ceasefire. But one thing is clear, Russia no longer has the influence
it had in the area just a few months ago. Yes, VisualPolitik viewers, the war in Ukraine
is changing everything. Because where there is a crisis, there is an opportunity. Not only at the
energy level but also politically. The European Union is faced with the opportunity to bring
Central Asia into its sphere of influence and not into that of other powers. And take note,
because we are not exactly talking about Russia. (Chinese President Xi Jinping seeks to open
doors in Central Asia as Ukraine war leaves Russia diminished. – SCPM)
The point is that Europe is starting to take steps towards Central Asia but,
as you can imagine, negotiating with these kinds of dictatorships does not give a
good image and is only a source of problems. It will never be in good taste to say that among
Brussels' best friends are the Aliyevs or the new dictator of Turkmenistan, the son of Arkadag,
an old acquaintance of VisualPolitik. Those of you who have been following
us for a few years already know a few stories about this real nutcase, who had gold statues
erected of himself and his favorite dog. His son doesn't seem to be much better.
Perhaps it would be better for Europe to depend on several devils rather than on one,
but as things stand, that does not mean that it will be easy to get out of hell. So the question
is: What is the problem for the European Union if Azerbaijan attacks Armenia again?
How can Brussels bring Central Asia into its sphere of influence? Could it really
have cheap gas and at the same time score points against Russia and China? Today on
VisualPolitik we are going to answer these questions but first... let's
look at a bit of history. (INTRO VISUALPOLITIK)
Our story today begins far away from Turkmenistan. Specifically 4,500 kilometers
or 2,800 miles away. We are going to travel to a place in the Indian Ocean that we have
already told you a lot about on VisualPolitik. I am referring to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands,
an archipelago belonging to India that is the great Achilles heel of China.
China's economy devours resources relentlessly. In a way this makes China a giant with feet of clay
because much of its supplies of oil and other raw materials pass through the Strait of Malacca. So,
should things ever get ugly with China, its rivals could take advantage of the Andaman and
Nicobar Islands to block them from shipping via the Indian Ocean and starve them of resources.
This is where Central Asia starts to become relevant for China. We are talking about
a region that, until recently, nobody cared about except Russia. Because yes,
Central Asia has many natural resources but little capacity to exploit them.
A good example of this is Turkmenistan. At the current rate of production, Russia has
gas reserves for 58 years and Qatar for 144. Well, Turkmenistan has gas for the next 230
years. This tells us two things: they have plenty of gas and they are not taking advantage of it.
It takes a lot of investment to start up a gas production field and even more to install the
necessary infrastructure to export it. But of course, wherever there are hydrocarbons, China
has always been willing to put up the necessary yuan to make it happen. Look at this map.
The China-Central Asia gas pipeline, which runs through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan,
has enabled China to obtain gas from Turkmenistan since 2010. Turkmenistan used to sell most of
its gas to Russia, but things have changed a lot in recent years. So much so that already
in 2021 it exported to Beijing 34 bcm, that is 34 billion cubic meters of gas,
three times more than the 10 bcm it sold to Moscow.Turkmenistan
is the main supplier of gas to China by pipeline and the second largest overall
if we take into account liquefied natural gas from Australia. In fact, the capacity
of the China-Central Asia gas pipeline, of about 55 billion cubic meters per year,
currently has no competition when it comes to supplying gas to China by land. For example, the
Power of Siberia gas pipeline that connects China with Russia expects to reach 38 billion cubic
meters in 2025, a 30% less. All this underlines the importance of Turkmenistan for China.
We have all heard about Xi Jinping's latest meeting with Putin in Samarkand. But the
Chinese president also met with the leaders of the five Central Asian countries. Beijing's
interest in the region means that as Chinese influence grows, Russian influence decreases.
And there are three reasons why this trend will increase: the first is that China is
a more attractive trading partner than Russia. Secondly, nobody wants to bet on the losing horse,
and man. Right now the situation in Ukraine does not look good for Putin. And finally,
don't forget that Kazakhstan is the reference country in the region.
And, as we have seen in previous VisualPolitik videos, Kazakhstan is increasingly distancing
itself from the Kremlin. In fact, it has done so again with an article signed by
President Tokayev himself in Politico, the star media outlet of Brussels politicians.
(Kazakhstan's president: We're moving full speed ahead toward reform. – POLITICO)
China gaining influence in Central Asia is a problem for Europe, but also for the United
States. Fundamentally because as Beijing takes over the natural resources of these
five countries, the importance of a possible blockade on supplies to China diminishes.
And of course, from a geopolitical point of view, the West wants the status quo to remain the same
because it is in its interest to maintain the deterrence card in the Indian Ocean.
But there is also the possibility of Turkmenistan selling its natural gas to Europe,
which would be a great way for Europe to reduce its dependence on Russia. Right now the European
Commission is looking for a formula to replace the 150 bcm bought from Russia every year.
The aim is to diversify supplies. An agreement has already been concluded with the United States to
purchase its liquefied natural gas. This was explained by President Ursula Von der Leyen.
The problem is that LNG is more expensive than that which arrives by pipeline. Having cheap
energy was, until now, one of Europe's main competitive advantages in comparison to Asia.
So Europe needs gas from different places, yes, but if possible it also needs cheap
gas. Therefore, the European Union’s best option to supplement LNG from countries like the United
States or Qatar is through pipelines that are able to bring more gas from the Caucasus and Central
Asia. And therein lies the crux of the matter. Let's see what is being done.
(I PROVIDE THE CAVIAR, YOU PROVIDE THE TINS) Azerbaijan has been ruled for half a century
by the same family: the Aliyevs. At home they rule with an iron fist but
with outsiders they try very hard to please. Especially if those outsiders are Europeans.
Their problem is that dealing with dictatorships is never pleasant. So from Baku they set in motion
something that veteran followers of VisualPolitik already know about: caviar diplomacy.
Because of course, with money and caviar it is easier to make friends. Well,
caviar... and very attractive women. Because Azerbaijan has not been shy about
buying off European politicians. Brussels even went so far as to give instructions
for diplomats to be on the alert. If a pretty girl came up to you and said something along
the lines of (Azeri accent) "I want to know how long your gas pipeline is" 'Watch out because
she doesn't want to be your friend! Don't go with her, dear MEP, because she wants
to blackmail you into supporting Azerbaijan! But what are Azerbaijan's interests? Well,
take a close look at this map. There was also a lot of pressure
to keep this project in a drawer. Because Russia went so far as to finance political
parties such as Italy's Five Star Movement to prevent this pipeline from being built.
In the end, the last part of the Southern Gas Corridor, the TAP,
the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, became operational in December
2020. This has allowed Azerbaijan to currently sell 10 bcm to Europe.
Well, compared to the 150 bcm coming from Russia it is nothing. But the important
thing is that the tables have turned completely. With the war in Ukraine,
it turns out that now it is the Europeans who have turned to begging Azerbaijan to provide more gas.
Brussels has already finalized an agreement with Azerbaijan to double gas shipments by
2027. Right there in Baku was Von der Leyen, who is as much with Biden as she is with Aliyev.
Don't get excited either Ursula, with 20 bcm in Italy they will run out of gas
in a couple of months. Because that is the true reality of the Southern Gas Corridor:
it brings very little gas to Europe and, even if it doubles by 2027,
it will still be very little. Now, let's look at TANAP, the Trans-Anatolian pipeline.The
1,840-kilometer TANAP receives gas from Azerbaijan at the border with Georgia
and crosses all of Turkey to the border with Greece, where the TAP starts. This pipeline,
which is mostly owned by SOCAR, the Azeri state-owned company,
has a capacity of 16 bcm, of which 6 stay in Turkey, 2 in Greece and 8 reach Italy.
Most importantly, this pipeline is designed as a scalable pipeline. This means that its capacity
can be expanded by adding parallel circuits and more power with compressor stations.
This means that with a contained investment,
around $7 billion, it could grow to a capacity of 32 bcm. But wait a minute,
because 10 years ago SOCAR's plans were to transport 60 bcm, which is a big deal.
And of course, the big question is: why doesn't Azerbaijan exploit this?
First of all because it takes many millions to
develop the gas production fields. Shah Deniz, Azerbaijan's mega field,
has required an investment of $27 billion to currently produce 21 bcm per year.
This money could be used to build more than 70 full-fledged hospitals. And this
is when Azerbaijan has said to Europe. My friend Ursula, I’ll
provide the caviar, but you provide the cans: (President Aliyev Says Increasing Gas Exports
Requires Investment & Guarantees. – Caspian News) Aliyev has said that if Europe wants more gas,
let its oil companies come and invest in Azerbaijan. And you may ask,
but why when Azerbaijan used to blackmail European politicians with good looking girls... is it now
turning its back on us? Well, because Baku is suspicious of Europe's long-term intentions.
And it has three reasons for this: first, there is absolutely nothing to prevent Europe from
buying gas from Russia again. A thousand things could happen: Putin could come to his senses and
give in, Putin could sell us gas again, Putin could even be deposed... Anything is possible!
Azerbaijan distrusts Europe... and Europe distrusts Azerbaijan. It makes no sense to stop
depending on the evil Putin and start depending on the equally evil Aliyev. So who is left? Well,
check it out. (GAS PARADISE)
Can you imagine a country with gas reserves five times larger than those of Azerbaijan? No need
to imagine it, it exists and it’s called Turkmenistan. It is also a dictatorship,
a sort of stupider version of North Korea, but it has one advantage!
Its dictators prefer spending money more on giant gold statues than on nuclear bombs.
Literally. The new dictator of Turkmenistan is this gentleman you see on screen.
SERDAR BERDIMUHAMEDOV, the son of the former dictator whose name I will not
try to pronounce again because I might be invoking the devil without realizing it.
And I know what many of you will say: A hereditary dictatorship,
are we never going to stop making deals with these people? Well, at least Turkmenistan
is a dictatorship that does not intend to invade anyone. So we can rest assured that
the Turkmen armed forces have shown this ferocity in welcoming their new dictator.
It's catchy eh! (Get serious) In other words: Turkmenistan is not exactly the terror of
Central Asia. So the European Union should seek an agreement similar to the one reached by China.
The Asian giant said to Turkmenistan: ((SARCASTIC TONE)) don't worry about anything, I will exploit
the field and build the gas pipeline for you. Then you pay me for the services rendered with gas.
But have you seen how they dance? They are delighted.
And many of you will be thinking: well, why didn't Europe come up with something
like this earlier? Basically because it would be necessary to build the trans-Caspian gas pipeline.
This project has been blocked for decades because it had to be given the go-ahead by
all the countries bordering the Caspian Sea, which include Russia and Iran.
However, the situation has changed since 2018,
when the international agreement on the legal status of the Caspian Sea was signed.
Now an agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan would be enough to build
the pipeline. Something feasible after the two countries have settled their
eternal dispute over a gas field.
(Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan will jointly develop the
Dostluk field in the Caspian. – Caspianbarrel) In any case, it may take several years before the
trans-Caspian gas pipeline is built, and that is if it is built at all. So three alternatives are
already being considered for Turkmenistan's gas to reach Azerbaijan on its way to the European Union.
One formula is to get it to Azerbaijani territory by ship converted into compressed natural gas.
Another option is the one proposed by the US company Trans Caspian Resource:
a 48-mile interconnector for Turkmen gas to
transit between a Turkmenistan and an Azerbaijan field in Caspian waters.
And the third formula is already working. And take note, because a
most unexpected player is involved: (Turkmenistan Starts Swap of Gas
Supplies to Azerbaijan Via Iran) Under this three-way agreement,
Turkmenistan will annually supply 4 bcm to Iran on its northeastern border. And the northwestern
regions of the Islamic republic, which produce gas, will annually supply 4 bcm to Azerbaijan.
As you can see, Europe getting gas from Turkmenistan is not going to be easy.
Nor will it be a panacea. But it is the best way to bring Central Asia into the European
sphere of influence and avoid leaving the way open for China in the region.
It would mean scoring a point in the areas of security and the economy by
securing a stable and cheap gas supply. And it is the opportunity to be the new
cat in the region. But now the questions are for you: Do you think Europe should go for
the trans-Caspian pipeline, or do you think that enough is enough as far as dealing with
dictatorships go and that the real alternative to Russian gas is nuclear plus renewables?
You can leave me your answer in the comments. In the meantime, don't forget that we release
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