WHAT CAN YOU TELL US?
GOOD MORNING.
WE HAVE THOSE NUMBERS HERE FROM
THE HURRICANE CENTER.
LET US GET THAT UPDATE.
GOOD MORNING.
WHAT DOES THAT 2:00 UPDATE
PROVIDE US?
NOT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE.
THE 2:00 AND 8:00 UPDATES ARE
INTERMEDIATE UPDATES, NOT THE
FULL PACKET.
WE LOOKING AT UPDATES ON THE
WEBSITE, THEY COME OUT AT 11:00
AND 5:00.
THAT IS WHY YOU SEE 11:00 ON
THIS GRAPHIC.
THE LATEST SHOWS NOT MUCH OF A
CHANGE IN SPEED, MAYBE ONE MILE
AN HOUR LESS.
WITH THAT SPEED, SLOWING DOWN
JUST A
EIGHT MILE AN HOUR FOR THIS
UPDATE, IT WAS IN THE DOUBLE
DIGITS.
HIS EFFORTS YOU IN TELLING YOU
ANYTHING?
THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE
EAST, THE SERVICE CENTER WHICH
SHIFTED, THE SURFACE IS PUSHED
TO THE WEST.
THAT PLAYS INTO IT.
COMING INTO CONTACT WITH THE
TERRAIN, A LOT OF FRICTION
INVOLVED.
WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE IT SPEED
UP.
21 MILES AN HOUR WAS GREAT.
WE ARE STILL WHERE WE WERE 24
HOURS AGO.
NOTHING LIKE LANE THAT STALLED.
THAT IS WHY THE BIG ISLAND SAW
SO MUCH RAIN.
42 INCHES PLUS IN SOME AREAS.
THAT IS DUE TO THE MOTION OF THE
STORM.
WE SAY CONVECTION, CAN YOU
EXPLAIN WHAT THAT IS CUSTOMER
--?
THAT IS LEFT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.
IT COULD BE FROM SUNSHINE,
TOPOGRAPHY.
IN THE KIND OF LIFT.
-- ANY KIND OF LIFT, YOU WILL
GET LIFT THAT PRODUCES CLOUDS,
RAIN, THUNDER STORMS.
THAT 11:00 UPDATE WE SEE
THERE IS NO TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SOME ISLANDS, WHAT
CAN EXPECT TO SEE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
I WOULD NOT BE CONCERNED
ABOUT CHOPPING THE WARNING, THEY
WILL -- JUMPING THE WARNING, --
DROPPING THE WARNING.
THEY WILL SEE THE WIND LATER.
ONCE HIS CROSSES OVER, -- ONCE
OLIVIA CROSSES OVER AND GETS
HERE TONIGHT.
YOU WILL SEE MORE RAINFALL AND
MORE WITH THE WIND SPEED.
THEY WILL SEE RAIN.
ANOTHER THING, WE HAVE A
DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE
NORTHWEST, IT PRODUCES MORE
NOT ONLY OLIVIA, BUT A
DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
WHAT CAN THESE ISLAND EXPECT
TO SEE?
SIMILAR TO WHAT MAUI CAN
EXPECT.
I WOULD NOT PUT A LOT OF CONCERN
INTO THE TRACK, IT COULD SHIFT
TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH.
MAUI COUNTY ARE STILL GOING TO
BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF.
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STORM
IS LESS INTENSE.
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT -- MAUI
IS GOING TO SEE.
MAUI IS GOING TO SEE THE MOST
ACTION OUT OF THIS, THE HIGHER
WIND SPEED AND GUSTS THAT COULD
BE GREATER THAN 45.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS GET MORE WIND.
YOU COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 70, 70
PLUS.
SEPARATE FROM THE SUSTAINED
WHENS -- WINDS?
A LOT OF THINGS CAN PRODUCE
GUSTS.
A LOT OF TIMES, TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES CREATE WINDS.
TERRAIN FEATURES, -- THE
INSTANTANEOUS AND LAST A FEW
SECONDS.
IT IS A TIMING THING IN OUR
ALGORITHMS.
MILE AN HOUR GUSTS CAN DO A LOT
OF DAMAGE.
WHERE IN THE SYSTEM CAN WE
OUT.
WE CAN WE EXPECT TO HOLD?
NORTH OF THE CENTER WILL SEE
THE MOST WIND.
TYPICALLY THE HIGHEST ARE AT THE
CENTER OF THE STORM.
THAT IS STILL THE CASE.
JUST A THE NORTH OF THE STORM
YOU WILL SEE HIGHER WINDS THAN
YOU WOULD.
FOR THIS 5:00 UPDATE, WHAT
CAN WE EXPECT?
YOU WILL SEE THE FULL UPDATE.
YOU'LL SEE A WHOLE NEW TRACK, A
NEW CONE OF UNCERTAINTY.
CLIMATOLOGISTLY SPEAKING, WE
HAVE NOT SEEN ONE COME FROM THIS
ANGLE.
IT IS BEING FICKLE.
IT WILL BE ADJUSTING TO SEE THE
NEW TRACK.
DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING, OR
THE TECHNOLOGY AVAILABLE MAKING
IT AS SIMPLE -- EASY A PROCESS
AS OTHER HURRICANES?
TECHNOLOGY IS GOOD.
YOU SAW LAST WEEK, WITH NORMAN
PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST, WE DID
NOT HAVE MUCH OF A WARNING.
THEN AGAIN, CLIMATOLOGY GOES
INTO MODELS, AND THAT PLAYED
INTO THAT.
THIS, NEVER COMING FROM THIS
DIRECTION HINDERS THE MODELS A
LITTLE BIT.
WE STILL HAVE THE BEST
TECHNOLOGY AVAILABLE AND WE WILL
HAVE DOPPLER RADAR LOOK INSIDE
THE STORM.
IT WILL GET A BETTER FEEL.
THANK YOU.
WE APPRECIATE YOUR TIME.
GETTING THAT INFORMATION.
A LOT OF THINGS ARE HAPPENING.
WHAT BETTER PEOPLE TO ASK AND
GET THE INFORMATION THAN THE
EXPERTS.
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS, EMAIL
THEM TO ME.
WE'LL GET THOSE ANSWERED AS MUCH
AS WE CAN.