JESSICA DESVARIEUX: Welcome to The Real News Network. I'm Jessica Desvarieux in Baltimore.
June 30 was supposed to the deadline for Iran and P5+1 countries to settle on a framework
for Iran's nuclear plans. But we now know that talks will continue past Tuesday's deadline
for a comprehensive agreement intended to open the door to ending sanctions that have
crippled Iran's economy in exchange for limits on its most sensitive nuclear activities for
at least a decade.
Here to discuss all these developments are our two guests. Joining us from Washington
DC is Jamal Abdi. Jamal is the policy director at the National Iranian American Council.
And also joining us via phone is Cyrus Bina. Cyrus is a professor of economics at the University
of Minnesota, and a fellow with Economists for Peace and Security. Thank you both for
joining us.
So Jamal, I'm going to start off with you. What do we know about the framework of the
potential deal, and what is slowing down the framework being settled on?
JAMAL ABDI: So I'm actually very confident that they're going to come to a final deal
very soon. The framework deal that was established in April was--it was a good outline for all
of the issues that needed to be resolved in the final deal. Mostly what they're doing
now is filling in those technical details about how to actually implement this very
technical agreement that involves both nuclear physics and international sanctions, which
are two very dense areas of expertise.
So I'm not surprised that negotiations have gone beyond the June 30 deadline. I don't
expect them to go much further beyond that deadline.
DESVARIEUX: What are those technical details that you mentioned that they're disputing?
ABDI: There are details involving the timing of the sanctions relief. It was agreed that
all nuclear-related sanctions would be lifted. It was agreed that this would be done through
a U.N. Security Council resolution, and now it's a matter of how do they square the circle
of implementing the sanctions relief such that it is parallel with Iran's implementation
of its own nuclear compromises.
There are other sticky areas, such as how does Iran work with the IEA to resolve the
separate but parallel investigation into possible past military dimensions of Iran's nuclear
program. This is an issue that has cropped up a lot in the U.S. media coverage, and among
skeptics of the deal. How do the parties resolve its issue and enable the IEA to close the
file on these potential past military dimensions of the program.
All of this being said, I think that they are actually very close on all these issues.
And the fact that Javad Zarif went back to Iran for consultations to me demonstrates
that they've got some type of final deal in hand, and now they just need to cross the
Ts and dot the Is.
The fact that it's going to go beyond June 30th is of no surprise. Weeks ago we were
hearing this from administration officials. The real deadline is to get the deal finalized
and sent to Congress, hopefully before July 9, because if they don't it triggers a additional
Congressional review period. And so that's what they were really aiming for. Not surprised
that they're going a little bit over the June 30 deadline.
DESVARIEUX: All right. Cyrus, what is being reported in the Iranian press? How is that
narrative being shaped as to why there's a delay?
CYRUS BINA: I think they're not concretely leading to any particular situation. But based
on the interviews and talks that Khamenei, the leader of Iran, has done previously it
is, it boils down to how sanctions are going to be dealt with. They want to really eliminate
the sanctions from the very beginning. But the caution is that how and what, and of course
the U.S. counterpart wants to do it under phases.
So that it seems to me would be sort of the element of delay on this. But on the whole
I think--this is nearly two years of negotiation between Iran and the United States. And this
is also leading to, if this is completed, is one of the important achievements of the
Obama administration after so many setbacks since 9/11 in terms of foreign policy.
So I don't think that this is going to be difficult in a sense that it's going to be,
the deal is not going to be done. Deal is done, in my judgment. But the question is
not technical difficulties, in terms of nuclear and everything else. And you know, nuclear
physics and so on. But sanctions. I think sanctions would be very important to be dealt
with, and of course they have a difference of opinion in terms of timing of it. Not that
it would be remote, but the timing of [inaud.] the sequence of the process will start to
get rid of the sanctions.
DESVARIEUX: The deal does seem to be done if you look at the press. Reuters is reporting
that France has asked its firms to prepare for a return to Iran, as well as its banks
to prepare to lift sanctions since Iran has more than $150 billion frozen in overseas
banks.
So you guys both stated that you believe that the deal is still possible. But if the deal
doesn't get done, what would--as you mentioned, Jamal, that July 9 deadline is reached there.
If that deal doesn't get done by that July 9 deadline, what would be some real consequences
for the Iranian people and American people?
ABDI: If the deal doesn't get done there's no plan B here. Both sides have very few options
that don't lead to disaster. One of the reasons that we are in this process, this negotiating
process, is the fact that the escalation on the U.S. side in terms of sanctions, and the
escalation of Iran's nuclear program towards having a capacity to break out in a very short
amount of time, these two sort of escalatory paths were reaching a dead end, or a crisis.
So if the deal does not get done, I see--I see no good options. There is potentially,
in the immediate falling apart of a deal, there will be an attempt to play the blame
game. And whichever party can come out of that with a perception that the other party
was to blame.
So for Iran, they want to make sure that if the deal falls apart it's because the United
States said no to a good deal, and vice versa. The United States does not want to be blamed
if the talks fall apart, because that gives Iran the upper hand. That gives Iran the upper
hand to start unraveling the sanctions, and to say that it was the United States, not
Iran, who is the intransigent actor.
Regardless of which party is viewed as the spoiler, I think that it sets off an escalatory
chain in which military action becomes very likely once again, because both sides will
be back towards those escalatory measures, and there are no short circuits to that process.
There is no way to get off of this path. Diplomacy will be off the table, and that leaves very
few other options.
DESVARIEUX: Cyrus, I want to get your take on this. Do you have the same reservations
that this could potentially lead to war?
BINA: I think it's likely a different opinion about this. Yes, that's true that July 9 would
be an important deadline, in that fundamental sense. But I think I could not imagine that
more than, less than let's say, about--more than 18, 19 months of negotiation. And getting
rid of all the technical difficulties. Remember, all the physicists and from the technical
standpoint, they don't have any problem on that.
The secretary of energy, who is a physicist, assures us that this is no problem. The question
is political. And this political situation boils down to the question of the conflict
of the past, and of course the question of sanctions.
In this particular sense I think it would--my judgment is that it would not go beyond July
9. But if it does, even, I don't see that--the water is already under the bridge. I think
the negotiations will be continuing, and I think the question is that this deal will
be a deal which will be an important deal and the starting of the relationship between
the United States and Iran after 30-some years or so.
DESVARIEUX: Okay. Cyrus, thank you so very much. Jamal, thank you so much for being with
us. We're just going to pause the conversation here. In part two we'll talk more about geopolitics,
better understanding of how countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, what they're doing behind
the scenes, and how the West is really imagining its role in the region if relations are thawed
between the West and Iran. Please stay with us.
Jamal and Cyrus, thank you both for joining us.
BINA: You're welcome.
ABDI: My pleasure.
DESVARIEUX: And thank you for joining us on The Real News Network.