Congratulations everyone, we have officially made it to Q3 of 2020! Normally, that doesn't feel like
much of an accomplishment but 2020 has been a wild one! So, I think we should celebrate, and what
better way to celebrate than looking at the latest Anthem, Arizona real estate stats. Am I right?
If this is your first time here, welcome! If you've been here before thank you so much for
coming back and for spending your time with me. My name is Lindsay and I'm proud to be your Anthem,
Arizona REALTOR® with the Wise Move AZ Team at Realty ONE Group. On this channel we have a lot
of fun talking about all things Anthem and real estate every single Thursday and we absolutely
love having you along for the ride. Our last market update video was released on July 16th,
and I don't know about you, but it feels like so much has changed... and nothing has changed... all
at the same time! We're still navigating COVID, we have the upcoming presidential election, and
everything just feels a little volatile right now. Anyways, I promise, I'm going to stay in my lane
and talk about real estate. Although these current events impact the housing market, I want to make
this analysis databased rather than speculative. I'll do my best to give an indication of what I
think we can expect for the remainder of 2020 and the first bit of 2021, but let's be honest,
making predictions in 2020 seems um... futile?! As always, we put a lot of thought into what
stats would be most valuable to you and how we can best assess the impact on the market. You'll
see that we've included a few key indicators throughout 2018 and 2019. This is to give a
baseline. We'll then compare to this year using the data from January 2020 to September 2020,
and we'll give some year-over-year comparisons. As you may or may not know, Anthem is a one-of-a-kind
master planned community, just north of Phoenix. The community is made up of seven distinct areas,
each with their own unique charm and features. These areas include Anthem Country Club, Anthem
Parkside East, Anthem Parkside West (including Circle Mountain Ranch), Arroyo Grande, Paseo,
The Landings, and The Village. I think at this point, we've done video tours on almost all of
those areas. If that interests you, I will link to our Anthem Neighborhood Tour playlist in the
cards for this video. We decided that this video would be way too long if we broke down
the stats for each individual area. Even if I would be in stats heaven. So, in the interest
of time the stats that we're sharing in this video are for Anthem as a whole. If you would
like these stats for a particular area within Anthem let us know by way of comment below
or by email at Team@WiseMoveAZ.com and we will happily get that information over to you.
In this video, we'll be using the following key market indicators: the number of homes sold,
the average sales price, the average sales price per square foot, the average days on market,
and how close homes sold to their listing price. So, let's take a look at the number of homes sold
on a monthly basis. This graph shows the number of homes sold each month in 2020 in peach,
in 2019 in gray, and in 2020 in pink. In 2018 and 2019 the numbers showed a similar trend or cycle.
We typically start the year relatively slow with sales growing through to the end of the summer
and then tapering off through the end of the year. We mentioned in our last market update that sales
were uncharacteristically low in April and May of this year. This was likely due to COVID-19 and the
stay-at-home order that was in place from March 31st to May 15th in Arizona. Well, guess what?!
The uncharacteristic trend is still holding strong, but now in the opposite direction! To
say I was a bit shocked to see the number of homes sold in September would be an understatement. This
was not only the highest number of homes sold per month in 2020, but it was the highest number
of homes sold any month on this whole chart, which goes back as far as January 2018. It even beat May
of 2019. September was record-breaking for Anthem. As predicted in our last market update video,
it's possible that this could be the product of pent-up demand. Many of our clients put
off their house hunting earlier in the year due to the pandemic and they've since been
stepping back in. I'm so inspired to see the strength of our Anthem market, especially
because of the uncertainty in the world, the fact that our inventory has been painfully low,
and that prices have been on the rise, but more on that later. If I had to guess, I think we'll
see sales go back to normal levels in October, November, and December. I did the research for
this video on October 13th and at that point Anthem had 29 closings in October, so far.
While there are typically more closings at the end of the month, I don't think it will be enough to
push us into record-breaking territory again. Next, let's take a look at the average sales
prices in Anthem month over month. When looking at this graph, I want you to focus on the dark
purple line in the middle. This is the average sales price. The pink line on top is the high,
while the gray line on the bottom is the low. As you can see, the average sales price in Anthem
has by and large been increasing steadily since the start of 2018. As discussed in our previous
market update video, the spike in March 2020 can largely be attributed to one sale in Anthem
Country Club that exceeded $1 million dollars. It was not indicative of a dramatic appreciation in
prices in Anthem as a whole. In September 2019 the average sales price was roughly $386,000
and at the end of September this year we had an average of roughly $410,000. That suggests
an appreciation of 6.4% in property values year over year. Interestingly, this is lower than the
average increase in sales price year over year for the Phoenix Metro Area as a whole. While it's hard
to quantify the impact of the uncertainty this year, it is clear that the market is strong and
resilient. Sellers in Anthem can find comfort in the appreciation in their home's value,
while buyers are pleased to see that Anthem homes are still more affordable than homes
in other parts of the valley. Our hope is that we'll see a more modest and sustainable growth
in prices through the remainder of 2020. Normally, I would say that we might even see a little dip
in the average sales price, but given the uncharacteristic nature of this year,
I'm not willing to say that! That being said, I think we'll still be in a strong seller's market
for the foreseeable future. If you'd like to learn more about the differences between a buyer's
market and a seller's market and more importantly what it means for you, you can click to watch
this video in the cards. Average sales price only says so much and it can't really account for the
difference between a starter home and a mansion. As REALTORS®, we often like to look at the average
sales price per square foot when assessing the state of the market. This can create a more level
comparison between properties, but it is by no means a perfect comparison. On this graph, much
like the last, I want you to focus on the gray line in the middle. This line shows the average
sales price per square foot in Anthem month over month. While the pink line up top shows the high,
and the purple line on the bottom shows the low. As you can see, prices grew at a stable and slower
rate through 2018. They ramped up slightly in 2019 and then grew even more rapidly in 2020, with the
exception of May 2020 which saw a slight dip and June 2020 which saw a spike. Year over year the
average sales price per square foot in Anthem is up. In September 2019, it was roughly $166 and by
the end of September 2020 it was up to nearly $183 per square foot. This indicates an increase of 10%
year-over-year. Again, this is lower than the appreciation we saw across the whole Phoenix
Metro Area. This continues to make Anthem very attractive to buyers. Much like average sales
price, we expect average sales price per square foot to continue a steady increase through to
the end of 2020, and into the beginning of 2021. Again, our hope is that this increase will occur
at a slower and more sustainable rate. Another interesting statistic is average cumulative days
on market. This gives an indication of how long homes sat on the market before closing.
It's important to note that this statistic is also imperfect. If a home is marked as pending when it
goes under contract, it stops accumulating days on market. However, if a property is marked UCB
(under contract accepting backups) or CCBS (contract contingent on buyer sale),
it continues to accrue days on market until closing. That being said, this statistic still
gives us a good idea of how long homes are sitting on the market in beautiful Anthem, Arizona.
As you can see on this graph, the days on market has fluctuated quite a bit since 2018. I would be
hard-pressed to say that this follows any sort of annual pattern and would be inclined to say it's
more closely related to the amount of inventory, or in our case the lack of inventory. That being
said, I think we can all agree that this graph shows the average days on market in a state of
free fall since September 2019. What does this mean? It means that on average homes are selling
faster when they hit the market today than at the start of the year. If you watched my last market
update video, you might remember my thoughts on the average days on market being 47 at the time.
Especially when the average loan is currently taking anywhere from 30 to 45 days to fund. I
forecasted a leveling off, in anticipation that this number couldn't realistically get much lower.
Trust 2020 to blow that thought out of the water! At the end of September 2020, we were down to an
average of 36 days on market... it's crazy! This means, in many cases, we are still seeing homes go
under contract within days of hitting the market. This might seem counter-intuitive. Prices were
higher and the homes were selling faster?! The piece that's missing in this picture is that
inventory continues to be uncharacteristically low in Anthem. The low supply may have driven the
prices up and forced people to make quicker decisions when they found the right house.
Thus the continued decline in the average number of days on market. Even though I wasn't exactly
right with my prediction last time, I'm doubling down! I suspect we'll either see this number level
off for the remainder of 2020 or we may even see a slight increase. Particularly if we can get a
bit more inventory in the next couple of months. Lastly people are always curious about how close
homes sold to their list price. In 2018 homes sold for an average of 98% of their list price. In 2019
homes sold for an average of 99% of list price. So far in 2020 homes have again been selling for
an average of 99% of their list price. There's been no change in this number since our July
update. Boring, I know... Some buyers may find this disheartening, because they feel
that there's little room to negotiate, and in some cases that may be true, but it doesn't account for
the fact that some homes are priced too high when they first hit the market, and they don't sell
until they've been reduced to within 1% of their market value. You're probably sick of hearing us
say this, but it just speaks to the importance of working with an agent who has local expertise
and understands the value of homes in an area. This is important for both buyers and sellers.
Long story short, the Anthem market is resilient and it's set to close out 2020 strong. If I'm
being totally honest, the shortage of inventory is getting a little old but we're still getting
buyers into incredible homes every month. If you're buying there are still plenty of
opportunities to be had, you just need to act quickly. I'm serious, if you see a home you like
no dilly dallying! You need to have your REALTOR® and your lender lined up and ready to go. If only
you knew a REALTOR® who eats, sleeps, and breathes the Anthem real estate market...
If you're thinking about selling, you have not missed the wave! Your home is still appreciating,
and if you're willing to price your home properly up front it could be sold within a matter of days.
So, get packing! There you have it! Are you thinking about purchasing an Anthem home
before 2020 is through? Or if you already live here are you thinking about capitalizing on the
strong Seller's market? Overall, it's still a very exciting time to be living and working in
the community we love so much. If you have any questions about how these numbers impact you
specifically please let me know. You can always send us an email at Team@WiseMoveAZ.com. If all
of this has you thinking, 'yeah, I could consider a move to Anthem'. Then you'll definitely want
to download a copy of our free HOA guide and I will link to that in the description box below.
If you enjoyed this video, let me know by hitting that like button and subscribing to our channel.
Lastly, if you'd like more information on the different areas within Anthem click to
watch this video up top or if you'd like to hear our pro tips for buying an Anthem home
click to watch this video on the bottom. Enjoy those and I'll see you next Thursday!