TALK TO YOU.
>> THANKS,.
CONNELL: CONCERNED ABOUT GETTING
EXCITED ABOUT CHINA, WHETHER
MARKETS ARE PREPARED TO LIFT
OFF, IT IS ON BACKDROP OF
POLITICS EXCEPT FOR A RACE IN
2020.
AT LEAST WHAT A LOT OF PEOPLE
ARE SAYING.
CHARLIE GASPARINO JOINS US NOW.
OBVIOUSLY THE OTHER THING,
PRESIDENT TWEETED ABOUT THIS A
BUNCH OF TIMES, YOU GOT THE
MUELLER INVESTIGATION.
>> YOUR LAST GUEST LAID OUT WHY
WALL STREET IS REALLY CONFUSED.
YOU SEE THE MARKET GYRATING ALL
DAY WITH CHINA, WHETHER WE HAVE
A DEAL, DON'T HAVE A DEAL,
NAFTA, WHETHER WE HAVE DEAL ON
THAT, THEY'RE COMPLETELY
PERPLEXED WHEN YOU TALK TO MAJOR
INVESTORS AND TRADERS WHAT HIS
TRADE POLICIES REALLY ARE.
I WILL SAY THIS, THERE IS A
COTTAGE INDUSTRY IN WASHINGTON
DEALS WITH HEDGE FUNDS AND LARGE
TRADERS.
THEY TRY TO WATCH, FIGURE OUT,
PROVIDE HEDGE FUND AND MAJOR
INVESTORS INFORMATION WHERE
LEGISLATION IS GOING BUT ALSO ON
TRYING TO READ TRUMP'S TRADE
POLICIES.
CONNELL: LIKE SCENARIOS.
WHAT MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN.
>> I SPOKE WITH AT LEAST THREE
OF THESE TYPES OVER THE LAST
WEEK, THEY CAN'T FIGURE IT OUT.
THAT IS WHY YOU SEE THE STUFF
TRADING ALL OVER THE PLACE.
OBVIOUSLY WHAT THEY'RE PRAYING
FOR, IF YOU WERE A MAJOR
INVESTOR YOU'RE PRAYING FOR A
DEAL, A NAFTA DEAL.
YOU'RE PRAYING FOR A CHINA DEAL
AND PRAYING FOR IT RIGHT BEFORE
THE 2020 ELECTION CAMPAIGNING
BEGIN WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THIS
SUMMER.
THIS SUMMER IS WHEN THE CAMPAIGN
KICKS OFF.
REMEMBER WHEN TRUMP CAME DOWN
THE ESCALATOR, ANNOUNCED HIS
PRESENCE, I BELIEVE IT WAS JULY.
CONNELL: 2015.
>> 2015.
LIKE RIGHT AROUND THEN IS WHEN
YOU START CAMPAIGNING.
SO THAT IS THE SAME SITUATION
RIGHT NOW.
THEY'RE HOPING FOR THE TRADE
STUFF TO SORT OF SUBSIDE, SOME
SORT OF CERTAINTY.
BECAUSE IF WE DON'T HAVE
CERTAINTY WITH THIS, THE MARKETS
WILL GYRATE ALL OVER THE PLACE
AND IT WILL HURT HIS ELECTION
CHANCES BY THE WAY.
CONNELL: THAT WAS GOING TO BE MY
NEXT POINT.
SEEMS LIKE HE REALIZES THAT.
MAYBE HE IS MORE LIKELY, IF
GROWTH PICKS UP AGAIN, FOR
EXAMPLE, MORE LIKELY TO REALLY
HAMMER CHINA WHEREAS IF WE'RE
STILL IN THE STORY OF THE DAY IS
KIND OF LIKE WOW, THINGS ARE
SLOWING DOWN, HE IS MORE LIKELY
TO MAKE A DEAL WITH CHINA?
>> I WILL SAY THIS, HIS HEART OF
HEARTS, LISTEN, THERE ARE TWO
SIDES TO TRUMP'S BRAIN REFLECTED
IN THE ADMINISTRATION.
THERE IS THE LARRY KUDLOW, STEVE
MNUCHIN SIDE OF HIS BRAIN.
PETER NAVARRO, SOME EXTENT,
ROBERT LIGHTHIZER PART OF HIS
BRAIN.
CONNELL: THAT IS WHERE HIS HEART
IS.
>> HIS HEART IS WITH NAVARRO AND
LIGHTHIZER, TRAIT HAWKS.
THEY ARE TRYING TO TELL HIM
THERE IS POLITICAL REALITY.
POLITICAL REALITY IS, ECONOMY
COULD SLOW, WHICH IT PROBABLY
WILL.
TAX CUTS MAY NOT PRODUCE BANG
FOR THE BUCKS.
PLUS A TRADE WAR, THAT WILL
TRASH YOUR 2020 ELECTION
CHANCES.
HE IS TURNING AROUND, LISTENING
TO PETER NAVARRO, CHINA TAKING
US TO THE CLEANERS.
THEY'RE PERNICIOUS.
THEY WANT TO RULE THE WORLD.
YOU GOT ELECTED BECAUSE OF YOUR
BASE WHICH LOVES THE HARD-LINE
ON CHINA.
KEEP GOING THERE.
WHO IS GOING TO WIN THAT I CAN'T
TELL YOU.
YOU KNOW, DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T
ACT RATIONALLY A LOT.
HE REACTS.
CONNELL: THIS BOUGHT HIM SOME
TIME THIS WEEKEND.
IF HE IS ACTING RATIONALLY HE
COULD HAVE SAID TO HIMSELF YOU
KNOW WHAT --
>> YOU SAW KUDLOW DOT ROUNDS TO
SORT OF SPIN IT IN A WAY WE'RE
HEADING FOR A DEAL.
IN REALITY, THERE IS NOT REALLY
MUCH HERE IN TERMS OF A DEAL.
BUT NO ONE KNOWS.
THERE IS, THERE IS NO MEAT ON
THE BONES HERE.
THIS WHOLE THING WITH NAFTA
THROWS ANOTHER MONKEY WRENCH
WITH IT.
THAT IS WHY PEOPLE ARE LITERALLY
HAVING A DEBATE TRADING STOCKS
WHERE TRADE IS GOING.
LISTEN, THE RATIONAL PERSON IS
SAYING HE IS BLUFFING, HE IS
GOING TO CUT A DEAL RIGHT BEFORE
HE STARTS TO RUN, THE MARKETS
WILL GO CRAZY, IT WILL HELP
THEM.
DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T ALWAYS ACT
RATIONALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
STUFF.
CONNELL: THIS ISSUE VERSUS OTHER
ISSUES, PEOPLE I SPEAK TO LOOK
AT DIFFERENTLY.
IF THIS WAS FOREIGN POLICY
ISSUE, YOU MIGHT GO BACK, HE
DOESN'T HAVE A STRONG FEELING
EITHER WAY.
HE WILL ACT, THIS ISSUE HE HAS
BEEN LIKE THIS FOR 35 YEARS ON
THIS ISSUE.
>> THIS IS SORT OF INTERESTING
ABOUT IT, IF HE WERE REALLY
WANTING TO SCREW CHINA A
COHERENT WAY HE WOULD BE DOING
THIS WITH EUROPEANS, WITH OTHER
TRADING PARTNERS, PUTTING A
COALITION TOGETHER TO SCREW WITH
THEM, PARTICULARLY ON
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY.
CONNELL: TAKE OFF THE ALUMINUM
TARIFFS.
>> INSTEAD, WHAT DID HE DO?
HE WENT TO WAR WITH EUROPE IN A
TRADE WAR.
THIS IS DICEY THING THAT HAS THE
MARKETS, NOW WE'RE TRADING OFF
AGAIN, HAS THE MARKET SCARED.
I CAN'T TELL YOU WHERE -- I'M
TELLING YOU I HAD THREE OF THESE
OUTFITS FROM WASHINGTON ASKING
ME MY OPINION WHERE I THINK HE
IS GOING.
I GAVE THEM THIS SCENARIO.
THE SNOW YO ONE SIDE OF THE
BRAIN OCCUPIED BY NAVARRO AND
OTHER SIDE, KUDLOW AND MNUCHIN
FIGHTING OVER EACH OTHER.
IN HEART OF HEARTS HE BELIEVES
IN NAVARRO.
THEY'RE TRYING TO SAY, THINK
RATIONALLY ABOUT.
I DON'T KNOW WHERE HE WILL COME
OUT.
CONNELL: WE WERE UP 441.
NOW WE'RE UP 228.
>> NICE.
I SENT THE MARKET DOWN.
CONNELL: NO, NOT IN THE LAST TEN
MINUTES.