WITH
WITH A
WITH A CORONA VIRUS CONTINUING TO SPREAD, MANY AMERICANS ARE
WORRIED ABOUT THE ECONOMY. AND
JOINING US THIS MORNING FROM
DENVER TO TALK ABOUT
THE CURRENT SITUATION ON WALL
STREET AND HOW TO MANAGE
THE CURRENT DECLINE IS STOCK
MARKET ADVISOR BRUCE ALLAN.
BRUCE, WELCOME AND THANK YOU SO
MUCH FOR JOINING US. GOOD
MORNING. GOOD MORNING. LET'S
START WITH SOMETHING WE'VE
NEVER SEEN BEFORE AS OF MONDAY
,WALL STREET WILL CLOSE ITS
FLOOR AFTER TWO PEOPLE WHO WORK
AT THE EXCHANGE TESTED POSITIVE
FOR CORONA VIRUS TRADING IS
GOING TO BE DONE REMOTELY WELL
THAT AFFECT THE MARKET EVEN
MORE. WHAT DO YOU THINK? WE
HOPE NOT. THE ASSURANCES THAT
WE'VE BEEN GIVEN SO FAR ARE
THAT THE MARKETS WILL FUNCTION
AS THEY NORMALLY HAVE ON A LOT
OF THE MARKET ACTIVITY ALREADY
IS ELECTRONICALLY TRADED. SO
WE'RE HOPING THAT THAT WILL NOT
IMPACT THE ABILITY FOR PEOPLE
TO BUY OR SELL STOCKS AT THAT
PARTICULAR JUNCTURE. SO HOW DO
WE MANAGE OUR INVESTMENTS ARE
FOR ONE CASE DURING THIS
PANDEMIC? I DON'T EVEN WANT TO
LOOK. WELL, I DON'T BLAME YOU.
IT'S BEEN A VERY CHALLENGING
SIX WEEKS AND I THINK THERE'S
TWO THINGS THAT ARE HAPPENING
ALL OF A SUDDEN. WE'VE GONE
FROM AN ECONOMY THAT WAS
GROWING AT ONE POINT EIGHT OR
TWO PERCENT SIX WEEKS AGO TO A
TOTALLY DIFFERENT SITUATION.
ALL OF A SUDDEN THE POTENTIAL
IS THAT THE U.S. ECONOMY COULD
BASICALLY SHUT DOWN AND THAT
MILLIONS OF PEOPLE COULD BE LET
GO OF THEIR JOBS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL WEEKS. SO WE'RE WE'RE
SEEING A TOTAL CHANGE IN HOW
BOTH PEOPLE VIEW THE ECONOMY
AND WALL STREET IS ATTEMPTING
TO PRICE THAT IN THE ISSUE
REALLY IS RIGHT NOW
THE MARKET'S DOWN AROUND 30
PERCENT IN A TYPICAL RECESSION.
WE GO DOWN BETWEEN 34 AND 55
PERCENT. SO WE'VE GOT MORE TO
GO ON THE DOWNSIDE AS THIS
RECESSION WHICH I BELIEVE WE'RE
ALREADY IN UNFOLDS. YEAH,
THAT'S WHAT I WAS GOING TO ASK
YOU NEXT. YOU THINK WE'RE
HEADED FOR A RECESSION AND YOU
THINK YES, YES. HOW SOON?
THERE'S NO QUESTION. IN FACT,
ALREADY IN A RECESSION A
RECESSION TYPICALLY IS DEFINED
BY THE NBER AS WHEN DOES
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY PEAK AND
START DECLINING. YOU CAN
DEFINITELY GET A SENSE THAT
THE ECONOMY HAS PEAKED EITHER
JUST RECENTLY OR IN FEBRUARY
AND WE'LL START TO DECLINE AS
THE AS PEOPLE START REALLY
REACTING TO THE LACK OF TRAVEL,
THE SLOWDOWN IN HOTEL BOOKINGS
,BASICALLY THE SHUTTING OF
MANY RESTAURANTS AND BARS
AROUND THE UNITED STATES. SO
WE'RE SEEING A TOTAL CHANGE IN
THE U.S. ECONOMY IS GOING TO
REACT. AND SO IT'S LIKELY THAT
THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS OF
THIS YEAR AS WELL AS THE SECOND
QUARTER WE'RE GOING TO SEE A
SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN ECONOMIC
ACTIVITY IN THE UNITED STATES.
NO DOUBT THE MARKET GUY. GO
AHEAD. WELL, THE MARKET'S
ATTEMPTING TO PRICE IN. ARE WE
GOING TO HAVE A RECESSION
THE LIKES OF WHICH WE HAD IN
2000 ONE WHICH WAS AROUND EIGHT
MONTHS. ARE WE GOING TO HAVE
SOMETHING MUCH MORE SEVERE LIKE
2008 BECAUSE OF THE IMPACT OF
THE CORONA VIRUS? NOBODY KNOWS
HOW LONG IT'S GOING TO TAKE
BEFORE WE GET SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER TREATMENT TO MAKE
CERTAIN THAT THIS VIRUS IS
STOPPED IN ITS TRACKS AS SOON
AS WE SEE THAT IT'S LIKELY THAT
WE'LL SEE A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK
IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY WHERE
PEOPLE WILL BE MUCH MORE
ENCOURAGED. SO THIS ONE'S NEW
ENVIRONMENT AND I'VE NEVER
LIVED THROUGH ANYTHING LIKE
THIS. SO WE ARE DEFINITELY IN
AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE WE ARE NOW
BEHOLDEN TO THE SCIENTISTS IN
THE MEDICAL COMMUNITY TO SEE
HOW SOON THEY CAN COME UP WITH
A SOLUTION SO THAT WE CAN SEE
WHEN THIS ACTIVITY THE ECONOMIC
SLOWDOWN IS GOING TO STOP. THIS
IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING TUFF
HAS PUT A LOT OF PEOPLE IN A
TOUGH SITUATION. OUR GOVERNMENT
WORKING ON A STIMULUS BILL TO
HELP AMERICANS. PEOPLE MAY SEE
MONEY RIGHT AWAY AS SOON AS
IT'S PASSED. WHAT WILL THAT DO
FOR OUR ECONOMY? I THINK THAT
IT DEPENDS ON HOW SOON
THE STIMULUS COMES AND HOW FAST
MANY PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT
THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. BUT
THERE ARE A LOT OF OTHER PEOPLE
THAT ARE GOING TO BE SUFFERING
GIVEN THAT THERE IS GOING TO BE
SIGNIFICANT JOB LOSSES HAVING
GOING FORWARD OVER THE NEXT 60
DAYS. AND SO HOW BAD THE JOB
LOSSES ARE AND HOW SIGNIFICANT
THE ECONOMY DECLINES. NOBODY
CAN TELL US THAT RIGHT NOW AND
WE'RE ALL TRYING TO WE'RE
TRYING TO GUESS THAT OR GET A
SENSE OF THAT AS THIS SITUATION
UNFOLDS. BILL ALLEN, THANK YOU
SO MUCH. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.
PLEASE COME BACK.