MUCH FOR THAT.
I WONDER WHAT GENERAL JACK KEANE
THINKS OF ALL OF THIS KIND
ENOUGH TO JOIN US.
GENERAL A CONSERVATIVE
GOVERNMENT COMING IN VERY
CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT ALMOST
BACK TO THE DAYS OF MULTIPLES
BUT ONE THAT RECOGNIZES A GOOD
FIGHT IN UKRAINE IS WORTH
CONTINUING TO SUPPORT UKRAINE.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS?
>> WELL, I CERTAINLY AGREE WITH
CONTINUED SUPPORT OF UKRAINE.
WE HAVE A HISTORIC EVENT TAKING
PLACE IN EUROPE.
A MAJOR WAR INSIDE OF EUROPE,
WITH THE FUTURE OF SECURITY
FRAMEWORK OF EUROPE AT STAKE
HERE, SO YES.
I THINK ALL THE EUROPEAN
GOVERNMENTS SHOULD BE SUPPORTING
UKRAINE.
IT’S IN THEIR NATIONAL INTEREST
TO DO SO, AND SOME OF THEM ARE
RELUCTANT PLAYERS, AS YOU WELL
KNOW, NEIL.
NEIL: YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT IT
AND ON THIS BEFORE ANYONE WAS,
GENERAL, THERE’S A VIEW THAT
SOME OF THE OLD EASTERN EUROPEAN
COUNTRIES ARE VERY EAGER TO HELP
UKRAINE, CONTINUE HELPING
UKRAINE, SOME OF THE ESTABLISHED
POWERS GERMANY TO A LESSER
DEGREE FRANCE, NOT SO MUCH OR
EAGERLY.
WHAT DO WE MAKE OF THAT?
>> WELL, RIGHT FROM THE
BEGINNING, GERMANY AND
FRANCE, THEY WANTED A PEACE
AGREEMENT.
THEY WANTED TO STOP THE WAR AND
GO TO NEGOTIATIONS WHICH CLEARLY
WAS NOT IN THE NATIONAL INTEREST
OF UKRAINE, PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY
STOOD FROM THE OUTSET, YOU KNOW,
HE’S NOT GOING TO ACCEPT THE
FACT THAT THE RUSSIANS NOT
ONLY CONTROL TERRITORY PRIOR TO
THE INVASION BUT EXPANDED THEIR
CONTROL OF TERRITORY, AND HE
WANTS IT BACK, AND HE’S FIGHTING
WHAT SEEMS TO BE A VERY CAPABLE,
CONFIDENT WAR TO GET IT BACK,
AND THE FACT IS FRANCE AND
GERMANY HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT HERE
TO REALLY GO ALL-IN.
MEANWHILE, THE FORMER SOVIET
REPUBLICS ARE PRETTY MUCH ALL-IN
WHY?
BECAUSE THEY UNDERSTAND
COMMUNISM.
THEY LIVED UNDER IT FOR DECADES,
AND THEY DON’T WANT ANY PART OF
IT.
THEY SEE , QUITE FRANKLY, I
SPOKE TO THE DIRECTOR OF THE
POLISH NATIONAL SECURITY
BUREAU WHO CAME TO SEE ME, KIND
OF THE EQUIVALENT TO JAKE
SULLIVAN AND HE TOLD ME, GENERAL
, WE’RE GIVING THE
UKRAINIANS TANKS AND
FIGHTING VEHICLES FROM OUR
OPERATIONAL UNITS.
IN OTHER WORDS, WE DON’T HAVE
THAT CAPABILITY ANYMORE IN SOME
OF OUR UNITS AND THE REASON
WE’RE DOING THAT IS WE’RE NOW
FIGHTING THE WAR WE THOUGHT WE
WOULD FIGHT AGAINST THE RUSSIANS
, BUT THE UKRAINIANS
ARE DOING IT FOR US, I DON’T
HAVE POLISH SOLDIERS THERE, SO
I’M GOING TO GIVE THEM AS MUCH
EQUIPMENT AS I POSSIBLY CAN AND
ACCEPT THE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.
WE WANT THE RUSSIAN ARMY
DEFEATED IN UKRAINE, AND I THINK
THAT IS ABSOLUTELY THE RIGHT
ATTITUDE.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, GENERAL, THIS
DEMAND ON THE PART OF
VLADIMIR PUTIN TO CALL IT
300,000 RESERVES ON TOP OF
137,000 SOLDIERS PRIOR TO THAT,
AND ALL OF THESE RESERVES BEING
CALLED UP WHO ARE HEADING TO THE
BORDER, IT’S ALMOST LIKE IT’S
VIETNAM RIGHT NOW WHERE THEY ARE
SAYING NO, NO, WE AREN’T GOING
TO DO THIS AND THE PROTESTS
POPPING UP ALL OVER RUSSIA, IS
PUTIN LOSING SUPPORT BACK HOME?
>> WELL, HE’S LOSING THE WAR,
AND HE’S TAKING SOME POLITICAL
RISK HERE, CERTAINLY.
HE KNEW FROM THE OUTSET THAT IF
HE WASN’T ABLE TO ACHIEVE HIS
INITIAL OBJECTIVE, TOPPLE THE
GOVERNMENT IN KYIV, THAT HE
OVERTIME, THE AMOUNT OF PEOPLE
HE HAD COMMITTED TO THE WAR IS
AN IMBALANCE AGAINST THE
UKRAINIANS AND THE NUMBERS
SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES.
HE COMMITTED SOMEWHERE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 180,000 TO
200,000 TO PROSECUTE THIS WAR
AND HE’S BROUGHT OTHER PEOPLE IN
AS HE’S TAKING CASUALTIES TO BE
SURE BUT THAT’S ABOUT WHERE THEY
STARTED.
WELL THE UKRAINIANS ARE NORTH OF
700,000, AND THE FACT IS, PUTIN
TOOK 25,000 KILLED ESTIMATED,
AND 65,000 WOUNDED ESTIMATED.
THAT IS STAGGERING OUT OF A
FORCE OF 180 TO 200,000, SO
THERE’S A HUGE PERSONAL
IMBALANCE HERE AND HE’S TRYING
TO CORRECT IT.
HE’S GOT EQUIPMENT, THE
UKRAINIANS DON’T.
THE UKRAINIANS GOT TO GO GET
EQUIPMENT FROM OTHERS.
PUTIN HAS GOT PLENTY OF STOCK
PILE EQUIPMENT HE CAN GIVE
HIS PEOPLE BUT HE NEEDS MORE
PEOPLE IN THERE BUT LOOK, I
THINK WHAT’S GOING TO SHOW UP
PHYSICALLY UNFIT, MEDICALLY
UNFIT, PSYCH LOGICALLY AND
EMOTIONALLY AND NOT WANTING ANY
PART OF THIS WAR, IN OTHER WORDS
A VERY LOW WILL TO FIGHT PRETTY
MUCH WHAT’S GOING ON RIGHT NOW
WITH THE FORCE HE HAS COMMITTED,
BUT WE CAN’T BE DISMISSIVE OF
ANOTHER 300,000 OR EVEN GREATER
, I THINK, IS WHAT
THEY’RE DOING BECAUSE THEY ARE
FORCING, WE CAN’T JUST DISMISS
THAT OUT OF HAND, BECAUSE
QUANTITY HAS A QUALITY ALL OF
ITS OWN, AND THERE’S A LOT OF
TASKS HE CAN GIVE THESE
ADDITIONAL SOLDIERS TO DO THAT
NOW COMBAT EXPERIENCE SOLDIERS
ARE DOING TO FREE THEM UP.
WE AT THE INSTITUTE FOR THE
STUDY OF WAR LOOK AT
THIS AND WE DON’T BELIEVE THIS
ADDITIONAL FORCE WILL BE
DECISIVE IN TERMS OF PUTIN BEING
ABLE TO ACHIEVE A VICTORY HERE,
BUT LIKELY THEY ARE GOING TO
HAVE SOME POSITIVE IMPACT.
NEIL: ALL RIGHT, GENERAL, THANK
YOU VERY MUCH.
A LOT TO SORT OF DIGEST THERE
AND TO SEE WHERE VLADIMIR PUTIN