Let's talk about the polls
and whether we can trust them to pick
the next US president.
The president is behind — and behind by a lot.
Most national polls have Joe Biden
with a lead over Donald Trump.
Sound familiar?
Polls showing Hillary Clinton ahead.
This is unheard of in recent presidential politics.
Just ask Hillary Clinton how that turned out for her.
So if polls can’t predict a winner
why are there so many of them?
Can we trust them?
And while we’re talking predictions
will Trump win again?
When it comes to picking the winner of a presidential race
Allan Lichtman thinks opinion polls are a waste of time.
He says they’re snapshots, not crystal balls.
Who’s Allan Lichtman?
Only the guy who’s predicted every winner since 1984.
That’s nine US presidents in a row.
He predicted Ronald Reagan’s win
nearly two years before the vote.
He called Barack Obama’s re-election in 2012
when many people thought the race was too close to call.
And against almost all the polls
he picked Donald Trump in 2016.
So who is Lichtman picking for 2020?
We’ll get to that in a bit.
But first let’s talk about the polls.
There are national polls, state polls
and a whole lot of other polls.
And they all do things differently.
US broadcasters like CNN and Fox News
do their surveys over the phone.
Associated Press and the Pew Research Center
recruit people offline but their surveys are online.
Pollsters might ask questions like:
Would you say that your choice of Trump is more
a vote for Trump or more a vote against Biden?
But there are many other factors
that can influence the results.
Things like who paid for the poll
because that could bias the pollster.
How were participants chosen?
Where are they from?
And that’s where something called weighting comes in.
It’s a calculation used by pollsters to make sure
their sample is representative
of an area, state or the whole country.
They adjust the sample for things like
education, age and gender.
So those are the kinds of things pollsters try to do
to stay as accurate as possible.
But in 2016 a lot were off the mark.
Back then some said Clinton’s chances of winning
were high.
But she didn’t win.
That’s because while Clinton got more votes overall
what’s called the popular vote
she lost the Electoral College, which is the voting system
used to decide the presidency.
That rarely happens.
And the pollsters didn’t see it coming.
So how’d the polls get it so wrong?
Well one of the biggest mistakes in 2016
happened with state polls.
The Pew Research Center says there were too many
cheap-and-fast polls and too many
college-educated people were interviewed.
On Election Day two things happened.
First, there was a higher turnout in rural counties
and a lower turnout in urban ones.
That helped Trump.
And second, there were a lot of undecided voters
who chose Trump at the last minute.
But some of them didn’t even get that far.
Research suggests that in 2016 a lot of people
were discouraged from voting because according to the polls
Clinton looked like a shoo-in.
Pollsters say they’ve learned from their mistakes.
And they better hope so because the combination
of Clinton’s loss and Trump’s win
convinced a lot of people that polls are just junk.
But two years later the polls for the US midterms
helped repair some of the damage.
And now the polls are back with a vengeance.
New polling on the 2020 presidential race.
Former vice president Joe Biden
with a lead over President Trump.
President Trump behind in two states ...
The poll also shows Biden with a 10-point lead …
But David also says a lot can still change.
And he’s not alone.
That doesn’t mean we can’t ever trust polls.
There are ways you can verify them.
And don’t just read one poll.
Read many.
It’s like getting more than one opinion.
The accepted wisdom is that polls do a good job
of taking the pulse of public opinion.
Are people worried about losing their jobs?
Do they care about racial inequality?
What about the pandemic and their health?
So let’s bring back Allan Lichtman and find out
whether he thinks Trump will win again.
He’s created what he calls the 13 keys
the keys to the White House.
If Trump loses out on six or more
Lichtman says the president is gone.
So, No. 1 is midterm elections.
The Republicans in 2018 did badly
so that’s strike one against Trump.
No. 2 is party nomination.
He didn’t have to fight for it so score one for Trump.
Three is incumbency.
Obviously that’s a win for Trump.
Any third parties running?
Nope.
He gets another key.
The short-term economy?
Well, the US is in a recession.
Bad for the president.
Outlook for the long-term economy?
Also not good.
Any major policy changes
from the previous administration?
There’ve been plenty.
Another one for Trump.
Key No. 8 is social unrest.
And race relations in the US are awful
so Trump loses out there too.
Then there’s scandal.
Trump takes key No. 10:
No foreign policy or military failures.
But he loses out on No. 11
which is foreign policy or military successes.
The next one asks whether the incumbent Donald Trump
is inspirational and charismatic.
According to Lichtman he is a flashy showman
but he only appeals to a narrow slice of the electorate.
And finally, is the challenger Joe Biden
charismatic and inspirational?
Lichtman isn’t convinced.
So will Trump remain in the White House?
According to Lichtman the president
has lost out on seven of 13 keys.
So he’s pretty confident — but there’s a catch.
Lichtman says two things could throw out his prediction:
Russian hackers, and what he calls voter suppression
by the Trump administration.
And 2020 is far from an ordinary election year
the pandemic and the ruined global economy
made sure of that.
This race is still a tough one to call …
no matter what the polls say.
The original interview with Allan Lichtman
was conducted by our colleagues at The Take,
which is an Al Jazeera podcast.
You can listen to their episode about polls
wherever you get your podcasts.
I’ll see you next week.