Ethereum, am I right?
Probably the most asked question I get right now
is what the heck is going on with ETH?
As you guys know, we are the official Ethereum YouTube channel.
You know why.
But things in February have not looked great for ol' ETH especially at the end.
And with a seemingly never-ending invisible institutional hand pressing down on it,
can it regain its momentum or is it destined to fall down CoinMarketCap?
Today, we're going to look at the Ethereum historical chart
and find out whether or not ETH can make a comeback.
Let's get it!
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Now, in this video, we're going to get back to the basics with Ethereum.
You know, sometimes I'm guilty of taking shortcuts. It happens.
Taking other people's thoughts analysis and predictions too much into consideration
when looking at short-term moves.
In February, everyone was bullish on ETH.
I watched video after video of other YouTubers charting ETH $2500 or $3,000.
And their analysis made sense to me.
But one thing we do on this channel that's different from basically everybody else
is that we analyze the historical charts more than anyone.
We've done it relentlessly with Bitcoin,
and that's really been the secret sauce of the growth of this channel.
History has not failed me yet.
However, when it came to predicting Ethereum's price movements,
I found myself relying too much on what Bitcoin had done lately
and the short-term technical analysis of ETH.
The reason for this is understandable.
Ethereum simply doesn't have the full history that Bitcoin does.
And it doesn't have a halving cycle like BTC, so we can't break it down into its own little micro cycles.
But what we can do and probably should have done much earlier on
is analyze Ethereum's performance in the last bull run compared to this one.
From recovering 2017's all-time highs to the end of the bull market,
we can expect that to be about nine months for this bull cycle.
Basically December to September of this year.
But the end of 2017's bull market was technically late January 2018.
So if we were to reverse that back nine months, we would end up in March of 2017.
And if you were around back then, that's when things really started heating up.
So let's visit Ethereum in March of 2017 to see how it was going.
It was almost $25.
I bet you're wishing you had a time machine about right now.
Just imagine a $25 Ethereum.
Right now, we're sitting around $1500.
We're about two and a half months into the bull run.
But, of course, we know Ethereum hit $1500 this year during the first week of February,
about six months following Bitcoin hitting its all-time high.
Almost exactly the same as 2017. Weird!
But I'm sure, in 2017, Ethereum didn't have a retracement like we're having now.
Actually, it did.
During the first week of May, it plummeted all the way down basically to where it started off.
Far greater retrace than we're seeing right now.
But here's the good news.
After that terrible retracement,
it would never return to those lows again.
Like, ever.
Honestly, the more I got into this research, the better I felt about where we are with Ethereum.
I think if we judge Ethereum based on history instead of comparing it to the current Bitcoin chart,
we will find much more success predicting its future.
Here's the good news.
Looking at the candles from a comparable area on the ETH chart in 2017 to where we are now,
you'll see help should be on the way.
March has generally been a bearish month,
and we've noted that by looking at some different diagrams and charts,
but the truth is none of us expected the end of February to be this brutally bad and bearish.
So I'm starting to believe that March will not, in fact, have giant pullbacks
due to the fact we've already gotten it at the end of February.
So it's very possible that March will see another green month.
Remember,
the month over month charts we look at the history of Bitcoin, for instance, are only averages.
There are certainly outliers,
and we could be looking at one for the month of March.
But if you really want some good hopium,
the comparable weeks in 2017 led to a 350% increase.
At a price of about $1500 right now,
I'm certainly not saying this will happen,
but if it followed the same track, by mid-April, we could see Ethereum at $6500.
I think we would all take that.
And everything, all our wild futuristic predictions for Ethereum, would still be in play.
Squarely in play.
Then we could see a pullback throughout May back down well below $5,000
before making another charge over the summer.
But I want you guys to think about this.
We've had an intense pullback.
And it sucked.
The thing though that's been even more frustrating has been the lack of movement to the upside.
We just haven't had an explosive move from ETH since early January.
And that's been shocking to me.
But Ethereum also experienced an even larger pullback in 2017 during the same timeframe.
And now I'm kicking myself for not coming to this chart earlier
because the proof and evidence for where Ethereum was going was here all along.
Now, I've been telling you guys for weeks now
that ETH gas fees are not dragging the price down.
In early 2017, they certainly weren't dragging the prices down.
No way, no how.
And yet ETH still experienced a gigantic pullback then.
I certainly would have liked to have seen Ethereum hit our February moon targets, but don't give up
because while the timeline may have been a little out of sync,
I believe this look-back at the historical chart can get us back on track.
But you do have to factor in the invisible institutional hand.
You guys see that Grayscale is buying a lot of Ethereum.
How long can they keep the price down?
I would say this,
the overall feeling for Ethereum is incredibly bearish right now.
That's probably why you're watching this video.
You're nervous about where Ethereum is.
It hasn't performed as well as we anticipated.
You're looking for reassurance.
I'm here to tell you
the night is always the darkest before the dawn.
This is the feeling the institutions want you to feel
so you will give up your bags.
Listen,
I've not always been as bullish on Ethereum.
In 2018, I honestly thought it would fall away.
EOS and TRON were on the rise and seen as the stiffest competition to Ethereum.
I thought they would pass it.
And I can tell you, I was not buying ETH in 2018.
The whole year, I made videos on how the tech was going to get surpassed.
Sound familiar?
Sounds like something you may be hearing people say today.
Now, hear me.
I'm not comparing ADA and DOT to TRON and EOS.
ADA and DOT are clearly way ahead in every possible way of TRON and EOS.
But it is the same narrative we're hearing with Ethereum.
"It has too many problems."
"Too many good competitors."
"It will be passed."
"Get out while the getting is good."
We see what happened last time.
That was the narrative.
That faded away very quickly.
And Ethereum by 2019 had once again started separating itself from the pack.
Then it crushed the competition for the next two years.
I made that mistake once.
I gave up on ETH.
I won't do it again.
People are asking me if they should sell their ETH for ADA.
And this is what I will say on that.
I love ETH.
I love Cardano.
I hold both.
They're No. 1 and my No. 2 holdings.
Bitcoin is now No. 3.
It shows how bullish I am on ETH and Cardano.
I put my money where my mouth is.
But you need exposure to both, not one or the other.
I think there's a lesson there.
Blockchains, tokens, dApps, crypto companies and more want exposure to both as well,
not just one.
If you're considering liquidating part of your Ethereum for Cardano,
I would caution against that at this time.
That's a move you want to make after Ethereum runs,
not after it drops.
Also, Cardano has crushed it lately.
You may want to wait for a pullback and then make that move.
It's contrary to human nature to watch one coin pump and then sell it off for another coin that's down.
That's exactly how FOMO works.
There's a reason why FOMOing into projects is a losing strategy and a meme.
Don't be the dumb money.
Be the smart money.
But where do you think ETH is heading to?
would you trade Ethereum for Cardano right now?
Drop those comments down below in the comment section.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.