Amna: Today, Moscow said a
Ukrainian attack over the
weekend in russian-occupied
donetsk killed at least 60
soldiers, making it one of
deadliest incidents for Russia
in 10 months of war.
And, in the early hours of this
morning, Russia launched one of
its largest barrages of drone
strikes on Ukraine's capital,
Kyiv.
Ukraine says it shot down nearly
all of them but as Nick schifrin
reports, it has been a violent
beginning to a new year of war
in Ukraine.
Nick: In a nation at war, war
does not take a holiday.
And so over new year's,
Ukrainian rockets destroyed this
building housing Russian troops.
And for three days straight,
Russia terrorized keio from the
sky.
At least 60 drones targeted
Ukraine's capital.
Some eluded Ukrainian air
defenses.
The targets were yet again
civilian.
Ripping open this hotel.
Damaging the apartments of some
of Kyiv's most vulnerable and
destroying families in their
homes.
This use to be their kitchen.
A Russian missile landed a
direct hit, killing 36-year-old
iryna.
Two days later, serhii looks for
pieces of the weapon that killed
her.
>> He mourns his wife, and
embraces their son, who's lost
his mother.
His 73-year old father anatolii
was injured in the same
explosion.
>> You know, we were building
this house for five, six years
with our salary, with our money
and this happens.
What can I say?
They are beasts.
They are not human.
Nick: And yet amidst the torment
there is tenacity.
Ukrainians in Kyiv managed to
celebrate new year's, hoping for
the total victory that despite
all the fear of 10 months ago,
president volodymyr zelenskyy
vowed to achieve in his new
years address.
>> It was a dark.
It was loud.
It was hard for many and scary
for some.
311 days have passed.
It can still be dark, loud, and
complicated for us.
But we will definitely never be
afraid again.
Nick: And yet he acknowledged
the country's pain, written on
the face of little girls who
watched his address as their
family marked a new year.
But zelenskyy claimed, as
Abraham Lincoln did 160 years
ago after gettysburg, that war,
has created a new nation.
>> We woke up on February 24
into another life.
Being on other people.
Another Ukrainian.
On February 24, millions of us
made a choice.
Not a white flag, but a blue and
yellow flag.
Not escaping, but meeting.
Meeting the enemy.
Nick: Simultaneously on Russian
TV, president Vladimir Putin
delivered his own message, and
claimed historical truth is on
Russia's side.
>> This has been a year of
difficult, necessary decisions,
of crucial steps towards
Russia's full sovereignty and
the powerful consolidation of
our society.
Nick: He posed with troops, and
once again blamed the war, on
the west.
>> They cynically use Ukraine
and its people to weaken and
divide Russia.
We have never allowed anyone to
do that and we will not allow
anyone to do that.
Nick: And so the war goes on.
The front line is 700 miles
long.
And there is endless
destruction, in a war, without
rest.
For the pbs newshour, I'm Nick
schifrin.
Amna: For more on the state of
the war, we turn to Nikolas
gvosdev.
He's a professor of national
security at the U.S. Naval war
college and has written
extensively about Russia, the
soviet union and Ukraine.
Welcome.
Thank you for joining us.
Let's start with that news.
Russia acknowledging dozens of
their soldiers killed.
What does this tell us about
Ukrainian forces capabilities
and their strategy right now?
Nikolas: It is showing that
months, if not years of western
training and equipment of
Ukrainian forces is paying off.
The Ukrainians are being able to
connect real-time intelligence
with their artillery to be able
to deliver devastating strikes
in this particular case, against
Russian forces.
What it does signal is that the
Ukrainians are concerned about
the shift in Russian strategy
over the last several weeks.
The Russians are digging in.
The Russians do not want to lose
more territory in Ukraine that
they have already lost since the
Ukrainian counter offenses began
in the fall.
They are digging in.
They want to prevent further
Ukrainian moves.
I would agree with my fellow
analyst, Michael Hoffman, who
argues that we are seeing the
Ukrainians shifting toward
targeting Russian positions,
targeting Russian personnel, in
order to weaken those Russian
defensive capabilities, which
the Ukrainians will have to do
if they want to resume their
ability to retake land later in
the spring.
Amna: This was a building
housing many Russian soldiers,
storing their ammunition.
How did the Russians not see
this coming?
Nikolas: This is a question many
on Russian social media are
asking.
They are asking, after 11 months
of this war, why have the
Russian military not learned the
lessons?
Why have they continued to
underestimate Ukrainian
intelligence and reconnaissance
capabilities?
The ability of the Ukrainians to
direct artillery and missile
fire, and why no one seems to be
held accountable for Russian
failures in the so-called
special military operation?
It should have been anticipated
that a concentration of forces,
and next to an ammunition dump
less than 15 kilometers away
from an active frontline, might
be a target.
And it does suggest that the
Russians are not learning from
some of their mistakes that they
have been making throughout the
course of the invasion.
Amna: You mentioned the Russians
are digging in.
They are continuing with this
relentless campaign of drone
strikes.
There were a number of reports
for a long time about Russian
resources being depleted.
These strikes seem to suggest
that is not true?
Nikolas: That's correct.
We need to be careful about
making assessments that Russia
is running out of anything.
The Russian military is the era
of the soviet military.
This was not a military force
that believed in just-in-time
supply chains.
This was a military that
believed in extension --
extensive stockpiling.
There has been the retention of
speeding up capabilities, that
is, to be able to convert
industry back to military
production.
Finally, when we are reading
reports about Russia obtaining
supplies from North Korea, from
Iran, other sources, keep in
mind but they are dealing with
countries that have had
extensive defense cooperation
with the soviet union and
Russia.
In a way, they are able to
offshore their military
production and to bring that
back into use in Ukraine.
We need to be careful about
putting any definitive dates
about when the Russians are
likely to run out of missiles,
artillery shells, or other types
of ordinance.
Amna: The longer this goes on
and as the death toll mounts, do
you see any loss of support for
the war back in Ukraine?
Any cracks or fissures in the
will and leadership?
Nikolas: That will depend on
whether or not Russia needs to
go through another round of
military mobilization.
That is, that they need to widen
the draft, and touch more
ordinary families that so far
have been somewhat insulated
from the conflict.
We are also seeing criticism
from Putin's right, so to speak.
That he has not been decisive
enough.
That he is protecting those who
have led the failures in Ukraine
over the last number of months
in -- and defense minister
Schwager has been a target of
criticism.
There has been criticism that
Putin has not done enough to
crack down on the corruption in
the Russian military industrial
complex.
This is contributing to Russian
failures.
This could lead to problems on
his end.
Finally, the wildcard question
of if and when economic
sanctions against Russia really
begin to cut into the Russian
economy in such a way, to bring
such a level of pain to the
average Russian household and
also to the Russian elites, that
they might be inclined to
pressure the Kremlin to change
course.
Amna: That war in Ukraine, now
more than 10 months on.
That is the professor of
national security at the U.S.
Naval or college -- war college
joining us tonight.
Thank you.
Nikolas: Thank you.