HEIGHTEN CONCERNS INTEREST
RATE POLICIES INFLATION SPREE
OF IN WAGES UP 2.1%
YEAR-OVER-YEAR THAT IS WORSE
THAN EXPECTED, UP 5/10 OF A
PERCENT MEN AND WOMEN
PERCENT MEN AND WOME
PERCENT MON AND WOME
PERCENT MONTHND WOME
PERCENT MONTH O WOME
PERCENT MONTH OVEOME
PERCENT MONTH OVERME
PERCENT MONTH OVER M
PERCENT MONTH OVER MON
PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
QUICKER THAN WE EXPECTED
GIVING UP GAIN BECAUSE THIS
NUMBER IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED, THERE YOU HAVE IT
2.1% ON CPI, MARKET TURNED
NEGATIVE.
>> DECEMBER ANYBODY WAS ALSO
2.1, THE ESTIMATE WAS 1.9, SO
IT IS NOT RED HOT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTATION BUT NOT RED HOT,
AND WE WILL SEE HOW MARKET
RESPONDS OBVIOUSLY ONE FOR THE
DOWNSIDE.
>> NOT GOOD WITH RETAIL SALES
INFLATION UP SALES DOWN RETAIL
SALE DOWN 3/10 OF A PERCENT WE
WANTED TO SEE A GOOD RETAIL
NUMBER, AFTER THE TAX PLAN,
NOT WHAT WE'RE GETTING RIGHT
NOW.
>> I THINK KIND OF THE WORSE
CASE STHAR FOR THE MARKET
COMING ON THE SCENARIO
IMMEDIATE REACTION YOU HAVE
THIS INFLATION NUMBER THAT IS
COMING IN, IT ONLY LOOKING
LIKE .3% HIGHER THAT IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE, IN THE NUMBER THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO WHAT WE'RE
SEEING, SO -- THE MARKETS NOT
GOING TO LIKE 24 WE HAVE HAD
300-POINT SWING IN THE
FUTURES, AND I THINK, THIS IS
-- KIND OF THIS IS BAD NEWS
FOR THE MARKET I THINK,
MARIA: MAJOR MARKET MOVE DOWN
113 POINTS DAGEN WAITING ON A
NUMBER CORE INFLATION
YEAR-OVER-YEAR 1.8% THAT IS
THE CPI YEAR-OVER-YEAR, IS 2.1
COORS 1.8 ANY WAY THIS IS
HOTTER THAN EXPECTED.
DAGEN: CORE WAS EXPECTED TO
COME IN LOWER THAN THAT, 1/10
OF A PERCENT LOWER THE BIGGEST
FEAR IN THESE MARKETS, AND
WHAT TRIGGERED IT WAS THAT
WAGE GAIN NUMBER THAT WE GOT
IN EARLY FEBRUARY.
ABOUT AN ECONOMY WE WANT AN
ECONOMY THAT IS GROWING FASTER
WE WANT AN ECONOMY THAT IS
WARMER THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER
THAT IS THE WORRY IT IS THE
OVERRAEKS TO THAT INFLATION,
ABOUT WILL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
GET MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS
OF FIGHTING THAT INFLATION,
DOWN THE ROAD.
>> REAL SALES LARGEST DECLINE
ON RETAIL SALES 11 MINUTES
MIKE.
>> THERE WILL BE MORE
IMPORTANT TO READ THROUGH THAT
NUMBER BECAUSE I WANT TO SEE
EXACTLY WHAT MAKES UP THAT
NUMBER BUT I THINK FOR THE
PEOPLE AT HOME HATCHING A
HEADLINED MOVING NUMBER YOU
SEE MARKET REACT A BIG WAY TO
IT BUT WE HAVE RALLIED FOR THE
LAST THREE DAYS IF YOU ARE
SITTING AT HOLE WITH PORTFOLIO
THIS DOESN'T MEAN GO ON ETRADE
OR START LIQUIDATING IF YOU
HAVE A LONG-TERM PLAN THIS
ISN'T SOMETHING YOU WANT TO
SELL HE WILL INTO.
>> 219 POINTS LOWER DOW JONES
INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE FUTURES.
>> IT IS WORTH LOOKING AT LIKE
A TIP ETF TREASURER INFLATION
PROTECTED SECURITIES PORTAL
FOLIO OF BONDS THAT ARE
PROTECTED, IF -- IF INFLATION
STARTS PICKING UP, THOSE
SECURITIES ACTUALLY DURING
THAT MASSIVE SELL-OFF LAST
WEEK, DIDN'T DO THAT WELL.
YOU DIDN'T SEE A MAJOR RALLY
IN THEM SO THAT IS SOMETHING,
THAT IF YOU ARE TRYING TO ADD
BALANCE TO PORTFOLIO WORRIED
ABOUT FIXED INCOME LOSSES LIKE
ATTRACTS AS YIELDS GOING UP.
>> FALLING OUT OF BED DOWN 300
POINTS AS MARKET DIGESTS.
>> WORRY ONE THING TO FOCUS ON
PROBABLY WHY MARKET REACTING
THE WAY IT IS HOW KEY TO GDP
GROWTH THE CONSUMER IS, AND
THE CONSUMERS ARE THE RETAIL
SALES NUMBER, SO THAT IS WHAT
IS MOVING THAT MAYBE WE ARE
NOT GOING TO SEE GDP GROWTH
THAT WE EXPECT, IF A SILVER
LINING IN ANY OF IT THE THING
DAGEN TALKED ABOUT IT, AN HOUR
AGO, I DO WORRY ABOUT HOWSHOLD
DEBT SO IF SEEING A SLOWDOWN
IN RETAIL CELSIUS THEY MEAN
NOT INFLATING BALANCE SHEETS.
>> I THINK THIS REACTION IN
THE MART THAT WE'RE SEEING
400-POINT SWING IS I DON'T
THINK THAT HAS TO DO AS MUCH
RETAIL SALES AS HAS TO DO WITH
WHAT HAS BEEN SPOOKING THE
MARKET, AS INFLATION.
>> UP 5/10 INFLATION PICKING
UP THAT IS WHY YOU ARE SEEING
PROGRAMS, AGAIN PROGRAM
TRADING GOING OFF SELLING THIS
NEWS DROPPING THE MARKET IN
>> INFLATION IS AN ISSUE, AND
THAT IS GOING TO BE WHAT THE
FED FOCUSES ON.
DAGEN: YOU WOULD KNOW THAT
INFLATION WAS AN ISSUE EVEN
BEFORE THIS NUMBER CAME OUT,
IF -- BUT WE HAVE BEEN TALKING
ABOUT IT ON THE SHOW YOU HAVE
HAD CEO AFTER CEO MAJOR
CORPORATIONS, TALKING ABOUT
RISING COSTS, METALS FOOD
STUFFY I SAID EARLIER SISCO
FOOD DISTRIBUTING OVERLY FOOD
INFLATION UP MORE THAN 3%
RECENT QUARTER, FORD GRPG
HIGHER MATERIAL COSTS
CATERPILLAR WHIRLPOOL STARTING
TO WORK THROUGH SUPPLY
CHOOIFRN COSTS.
>> NOT JUST MATERIAL BUT LABOR
COSTS.
>> RIGHT SO THE DOUBLE WHAMMY.
>> WHERE A DO YOU DO IN A
MARKET THAT IS DOWN 300
POINTS, MIX MURPHY YOU ARE
INVESTED IN THIS MARKET
BULLISH ON STOCKS, A MARKET
FALLING OUT OF BED ON
INFLATION SCARE RIGHT NOW.
>> TAKE A BROUGHT AND SIT BACK
THIS MORNING IS NOT THE TIME
IF YOU HAVE BEEN HOLDING CORE
HOLDING IN AMAZON MICROSOFT
FACEBOOK APPLE, FOR THE LAST
YEAR, TWO YEARS, THREE YEARS,
YOU DON'T THE GET UP THIS
MORNING AND SAY SELL, YOU ARE
GOING TO SELL THAT, LET'S SEE
HOW THE MARKET REACTS IN THIS
I DON'T BELIEVE THIS IS CAUSE
-- AGAIN 11% DRAWDOWN PEAK TO
TROUGH NOT CAUSE FOR BEAR
MARKET MAJOR COLLAPSE THIS IS
SEVERAL HUNDRED POINT MOVE HAS
BEEN -- BECOME NORMAL WE WERE
DOWN A FEW HUNDRED POINTS
YESTERDAY CLOSED FLAT THREE UP
DAISY MARKET GOING TO OPEN
DOWN TODAY, THE MARKET GOES UP
AND GOES DOWN TAKE DEEP BREATH
LOOK AT INFORMATION IF YOU ARE
TOO EXPOSED TO EQUITIES SELL
THEM ON THIS SELL-OFF SELL ON
RALLY -- BUT --
>> THE DANGER WE NEED TO POINT
OUT TO PEOPLE, IF YOU ARE
TRYING TO REALLOCATE YOUR
PORTFOLIO, REDUCE YOUR STOCK
ALLOCATION, YOU HAVE TO BE
CAREFUL WHAT TYPE OF FIXED
INCOME THAT YOU PUT IT IN,
BECAUSE IF YOU HAVE LONGER
TERM TREASURYS THINK LONG OHR
TERM RATES KEEP GOING UP NORTH
% THAT IS A LOSS -- OOH NORTH
OF 3% A PRINCIPAL LOSS IF YOU
ARE NOT CAREFUL YOU HAVE.
>> ASSET ALLOCATION CHALLENGE
ENTERING PERIOD OF RISING
INTEREST RATES FROM EQUITIES
TO FIXED INCOME BOND PRIZE GO
DOWN, UNLIKE TIME REPORTING,
WHAT YOU ARE --
DAGEN: THEY DON'T KNOW --
YIELDS GO UP ACTUAL THE PRICE
OF A BOND FALLS.
MARIA: I MEANINGS PPI
EARLIER.
>> PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, OUT
THUS THIS IS TELLING US THAT
THE HIGHER INCREASES HAVE
GOTTEN TO THE CASH REGISTER
WHEN YOU CHECK OUT SUPERMARKET
IMPACTING YOU WHY MARKET IS
FAILING OUT OF BED.
>> ALTHOUGH I AM STILL GOING
TO WAVE CAUTION FLAB NUMBERS
FOR JANUARY EXACTLY THE SAME
AS FOR DECEMBER.
SO WE'RE NOT SEEING, INFLATION
RISING WE'RE JUST AHEAD WHERE
HAVE WE WERE FROM EXPECTATIONS
PERSPECTIVE.
DAGEN: QUICK I WANT TO POINT
OUT, SOMETHING, ABOUT --
BECAUSE I KEEP BRINGING UP,
THE -- THE UNPRECEDENTED
STIMULUS AND MONETARY POLICY
WE SAW FROM FEDERALIZING OVER
LAST DECADE, FEDERAL RESERVE
AND CENTRAL BANKS, THE CENTRAL
PROBLEM IS THAT THIS FEE OF
MONEY CHEAP EASY MONEY PUSHED
INTO THESE THE ECONOMY NEVER
BENEFITED AVERAGE FOLKS IN
THIS COUNTRY DIDN'T SEE WAGE
HE INCREASES INSTEAD IT WAS
ASSET INFLATION.
MARIA: YES.
>> STOCK MARKET.
>> JUNK BONDS REAL ESTATE.
>> SO THE AVERAGE PERSON IN
THIS COUNTRY COULD STILL BE
OKAY IF WE HAVE AN ECONOMY
THAT IS ON STABLE FOOTING
HIGHER WAGE INCREASES SO LONG
AS PEOPLE ARE CAREFUL EVEN IF
YOU HAVE THESE ASSET BUBBLES.
>> GO AHEAD.
>> GOING TO SAY INTEREST RATES
ARE RISING DOES NOT
NECESSARILY MEAN STOCK MARKET
GOES DOWN THE STOCK MARKET CAN
MOVE UP, IN A RISING INTEREST
RATE --
>> LET'S PUT IN CONTEXT WE ARE
ONLY TALKING ABOUT 2.88% ON 10
YEAR I RECOGNIZE, IT IS A
DIFFERENT -- SHOW 10 YEAR
RANGE I RECOGNIZE A DIFFERENT
DIRECTION THAN WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN WE GOT RATES, MOVING UP,
AND THAT IS THE NEGATIVE, BUT
2.8%?
WHO IS AFRAID OF 2. 8%.
DAGEN: WHEN PAUL VOLCKER
FIGHTING INFLATION 10-YEAR
YIELD AT --
>> FIRST MORNING.
>> 15%.
>> WELL MY RATE WAS 13.
>>.