.
. >>> WELCOME BACK.
I’M ALI VELSHI.
THERE ARE 121 X,9,959 CASES OF
COVID-19 IN THE UNITED STATES.
THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS
THAT SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS ARE
ABOUT TO GO THE WAY OF NEW YORK
CITY, MOST NOTABLY NEW ORLEANS
AND CHICAGO.
AND CHICAGO. AND IN WHAT MIGHT BE A SIGN OF
LARGER THINGS TO COME, THE CDC
HAS ISSUED A TRAVEL ADVISORY FOR
NEW YORK, NEW JERSEY AND
CONNECTICUT FOR 14 DAYS.
IT DOES NOT APPLY TO PEOPLE WHO
WORK FOR INFRASTRUCTURE
INDUSTRIES WHICH INCLUDE
TRUCKING, MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS
AND FOOD SUPPLY.
WILLIAM ROGERS III SERVED AS THE
CHIEF ECONOMIST AT THE UNITED
STATES LABOR DEPARTMENT.
THANKS FOR JOINING US.
ELIZABETH, LET ME START WITH
YOU.
YOU. 12 HOURS AGO WE THOUGHT THAT THE
PRESIDENT WAS CONSIDERING WHAT
HE CALLED A QUARANTINE ON THE
TRI-STATE AREA, NEW YORK,
CONNECTICUT AND NEW JERSEY.
NONE OF US COULD REALLY FIGURE
OUT HOW THAT WOULD WORK LOGISTIC
LOGISTICALLY LET ALONE WHETHER
HE HAD THE AUTHORITY TO DO SO.
WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT THIS?
>> WHAT WE’VE BEEN SEEING IN
GENERAL FROM THIS PRESIDENT IS
THAT HE SEEMS TO REFUSE TO USE
SOME OF THE EMERGENCY POWERS
THAT HE DOES HAVE AT HIS
DISPOSAL TO DEAL WITH THIS VERY
REAL CRISIS WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME THREATENING TO USE ALL
KINDS OF POWERS THAT HE ACTUALLY
DOESN’T HAVE.
DOESN’T HAVE. THE QUARANTINE THAT HE SAID HE
WAS GOING TO IMPOSE ON THE
TRI-STATE AREA IS AN EXAMPLE OF
ONE OF THOSE POWERS.
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOES NOT
HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO SEAL OFF
THREE STATES IN THEIR ENTIRETY.
IT DOES HAVE A QUARANTINE
AUTHORITY, BUT IT’S A MUCH
NARROWER AUTHORITY THAT CONGRESS
GAVE THE PRESIDENT TO QUARANTINE
PEOPLE TO TRAVEL BETWEEN STATES
WHO ARE REASONABLY BELIEVED TO
BE ILL.
BE ILL. THAT’S NOT QUITE THE SAME THING
AS THE MASS QUARANTINE HE WAS
SUGGESTING HE WOULD DO.
PRESUMABLY AT SOME POINT SOMEONE
INFORMED HIM HE DIDN’T HAVE THE
AUTHORITY TO DO THAT.
ANYWAY, HE REVERSED COURSE AND
THEN SAID IT WON’T BE NECESSARY
AFTER ALL.
AFTER ALL. >> SORT OF THE WAY HE DOES
THINGS.
THINGS. HE TOSSES IT OUT THERE.
THE CDC DOES HAVE AUTHORITY TO
QUARANTINE INDIVIDUALS NOT
ENTIRE POPULATIONS BASED ON
THEIR GEOGRAPHY UNLESS EVERYBODY
IN THAT POPULATION WERE THOUGHT
TO HAVE THE INFECTION.
BILL ROGERS, WE HAVE AN
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF ABOUT 3.5%
RIGHT NOW IN THIS COUNTRY.
AT THE WORST OF THE GREAT
RECESSION, WE HIT 9.5%.
NEXT FRIDAY WE’RE GOING TO HAVE
AN UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT.
YOU THINK THAT IT’S GOING TO BE
ABOUT 4%, JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN IT IS RIGHT NOW, BUT THAT
ULTIMATELY YOUR MATH -- AND YOU
SENT ME A LARGE POWERPOINT DECK
DESCRIBING THIS -- YOU THINK WE
COULD GET TO AROUND 17%
UNEMPLOYMENT WHICH WOULD BE
ALMOST DOUBLE WHAT WE SAW DURING
THE RECESSION AND APPROACHING
LEVELS THAT WE HAD IN THE GREAT
DEPRESSION.
DEPRESSION. TELL ME HOW YOU GOT TO THESE
NUMBERS.
NUMBERS. >> SURE.
>> SURE. ALI GREAT TO SEE YOU,
UNFORTUNATE CIRCUMSTANCES.
UNFORTUNATE CIRCUMSTANCES. THE 4% NUMBER, THAT’S BASICALLY
GENERATED OFF OF THIS NOTION
THAT THE DATA SET THAT THE
GOVERNMENT COLLECTS TO GENERATE
OUR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, THEY DO
IT IN THE WEEK THAT SURROUNDS
BASICALLY THE 12th OF THE MONTH.
THAT SITUATES BASICALLY THE
SURVEY BETWEEN THE 7th AND THE
14th OF THIS PAST MONTH WHERE
THEY WOULD GO OUT AND SURVEY
INDIVIDUALS ABOUT THEIR WORK
HABITS AND WHAT THEY’RE DOING.
IF YOU RECALL, DURING THAT WEEK
ABOUT 30,000 INCREASE IN THE
NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE FILED
INITIAL CLAIMS.
INITIAL CLAIMS. SO IF YOU USE THE HISTORICAL
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND U.I.
CLAIMS WHICH I THINK IS VERY
COMMONLY DONE AND PEOPLE VIEW
U.I. CLAIMS AS A GOOD PREDICTOR
OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MY
ESTIMATE IS YOU’LL GET SOMEWHERE
AROUND 4% FOR THIS FRIDAY.
PEOPLE DON’T WANT TO BE
COMPLACENT ON THAT AND BE LIKE,
WOW, HOW DOES THAT MEASURE.
WHAT HAPPENED IS THE SURVEY
DIDN’T CORRESPOND TO THIS PAST
WEEK WHERE WE HAD OVER 3 MILLION
AMERICAN FILES FOR CLAIMS.
THAT’S HOW I GET TO 17%.
MY ESTIMATE IS IF WE USE THAT 3
MILLION, YOU END UP GETTING
AROUND 17%.
AROUND 17%. I’LL GIVE IT A RANGE OF 15-20%.
>> IN OTHER WORDS, WE’RE NOT
GOING TO SEE SOMETHING LIKE
THOSE NUMBERS UNTIL AT THE
EARLIEST THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY
REFLECTING APRIL’S -- REFLECTING
THE END OF MARCH AND THE
BEGINNING OF APRIL’S JOB CUTS.
>> EXACTLY.
>> EXACTLY. AND THE OTHER THING THAT’S
MISSING IN THESE ESTIMATES ARE
THE NUMBER OF AMERICANS WHO ARE
WORKING PART-TIME BUT WANT TO
WORK
WORK REASONS.
REASONS. AND THIS NUMBER IS GOING TO
SURGE TOO, AGAIN, NOT IN THIS
REPORT BUT PROBABLY IN THE NEXT
REPORT.
REPORT. YOU’RE NOT ONLY LOOKING AT THE
TYPICAL OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE OF AROUND 15-20%, BUT YOU
ADD IN THESE ADDITIONAL PEOPLE
WHO ARE NOW WORKING PART-TIME
BUT WANT TO WORK FULL-TIME.
THAT PROBABLY COULD GET YOU
CLOSE TO 30%.
WE CALL IT THE REAL UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE.
RATE. >> THIS IS USEFUL INFORMATION
FOR YOU, BECAUSE YOU COVER THE
WHITE HOUSE WHERE NEXT FRIDAY
THE PRESIDENT IS GOING TO COME
OUT AND REFER TO WHAT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A MASSIVE INCREASE IN
UNEMPLOYMENT EVEN THOUGH WE’VE
GOT ALL THESE PEOPLE NOW ON THE
UNEMPLOYMENT LINES.
UNEMPLOYMENT LINES. THE WORRIES ABOUT PEOPLE BEING
OUT OF WORK, THE PERFORMANCE OF
THE STOCK MARKET CONTINUES TO
SEEM TO DRIVE THIS PRESIDENT
MORE THAN THE HEALTH CARE CRISIS
THAT WE’VE GOT ON OUR HANDS
ALTHOUGH IT DOES SEEM THAT SOME
PEOPLE IN THE WHITE HOUSE HAVE
ASKED THE PRESIDENT TO LEAN BACK
A LITTLE BIT OR WALK BACK A
LITTLE BIT ON THIS IDEA THAT
WE’RE ALL GOING TO WORK TWO
WEEKS FROM TODAY ON EASTER
SUNDAY.
SUNDAY. >> WELL, THE PRESIDENT IS REALLY
TRYING TO LEAN INTO HIS
POLITICAL INSTINCT.
POLITICAL INSTINCT. THAT’S HOW HE GOT ELECTED
PRESIDENT AND THAT’S HOW IN SOME
WAYS HE’S KEPT HIS BASE FROM NOT
LEAVING HIM.
LEAVING HIM. HE’S CONTINUED TO LEAN INTO
THESE FIGHTS AND MAKE THESE
CONSIDERATION
CONSIDERATION CONVERSATIONS ABOUT HOW HE COULD
BEST MAKE THIS A POLITICAL
ISSUE.
ISSUE. WE’VE NOW SEEN THE PRESIDENT NOT
WANT TO USE THE POWER HE HAS IN
THE DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT TO.
WE NOW SEE THE PRESIDENT DOING
SOMETHING LIKE THREATENING
PEOPLE INCLUDING NEW YORK AND
NEW JERSEY WITH LOCKDOWNS AND
HAVING TO LISTEN TO THEIR
GOVERNORS AND PUTTING NEW YORK’S
ANDREW CUOMO YESTERDAY SAY,
WELL, ACTUALLY YOU CAN’T LOCK
DOWN THE STATE OF NEW YORK AND
BY THE WAY, IF YOU TRY TO LOCK
DOWN THE STATE OF NEW YORK, I
MAY SUE YOU BECAUSE HE SAID VERY
CLEARLY YESTERDAY THAT WOULD BE
A FEDERAL DECLARATION OF WAR AND
I DON’T THINK IT’S LEGAL.
THE PRESIDENT MAYBE HEARD FROM
THE GOVERNORS THAT HE WAS GOING
TO BE TRY TO ENACT THAT
LOCKDOWN.
LOCKDOWN. OVERALL WE SEE THE PRESIDENT
TRYING TO BALANCE HIS REELECTION
BID WITH A REAL HEALTH CARE
CRISIS AND HE’S LEANING INGING T
TRYING TO GIVE PEOPLE WHAT THEY
WANT, WHICH IS SOME SENSE OF
NORMALCY AND TO GET THIS VIRUS
CONTAINED AND FIGURE OUT HOW TO
GET PEOPLE HEALTHY.
>> I’M PUTTING THIS MAP ON THAT
SHOWS WHERE THE HOT SPOTS ARE IN
THE COUNTRY.
THE COUNTRY. WE SEE THE BIGGEST HOT SPOT IS
RIGHT HERE AROUND NEW YORK, NEW
JERSEY, CONNECTICUT.
JERSEY, CONNECTICUT. WE HAVE FLORIDA, NEW ORLEANS,
DETROIT DEVELOPING, CHICAGO,
SEATTLE, LOS ANGELES.
IT IS MOVING INTO THESE OTHER
PLACES.
PLACES. THE PRESIDENT HAS NEEDED FOILS
IN HIS ARGUMENTS.
THE FOILS HAVE TENDED TO BE
DEMOCRATIC GOVERNORS OF STATES
WHERE THIS HAS HIT, SEATTLE,
ILLINOIS, MICHIGAN, NEW YORK.
AT SOME POINT WHEN THIS BECOMES
MORE SERIOUS IN RED STATES WITH
RED GOVERNORS, IS HIS VIEW OF
HOW QUICKLY WE NEED TO GET OUT
OF THIS OR HOW MUCH HE HAS TO
ARGUE WITH GOVERNORS GOING TO
CHANGE?
CHANGE? >> I THINK THAT THE PRESIDENT IS
LASHING OUT AT PEOPLE BECAUSE HE
NEEDS A POLITICAL FOE IN THIS
MOMENT.
MOMENT. THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL
CANDIDATES RIGHT NOW, THEY’RE
KIND OF SIDELINES BECAUSE THIS
IS SUCH A BIG ISSUE.
OF COURSE JOE BIDEN IS OUT THERE
TALKING ABOUT THINGS AND THE
PRESIDENT IS PUNCHING AT HIM
SOMETIMES, BUT REALLY IT’S THESE
GOVERNORS WHO ARE TRYING TO
CONTAIN THESE VIRUS IN THEIR
COMMUNITIES.
COMMUNITIES. THE PRESIDENT HAS HAD SEVERAL
CALLS WHERE REPUBLICANS AND
DEMOCRATS HAVE SAID, MR.
PRESIDENT, WE NEED YOU TO DO
MORE, WE NEED THE FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT TO GIVE US MORE
RESOURCES.
RESOURCES. HE’S DECIDED TO FOCUS ON THE
DEMOCRATIC GOVERNORS, BUT I
THINK WE’RE GOING TO SEE THAT
THE PLACES THAT HAVE THE MOST
CASES RIGHT NOW, IT’S ONLY
BECAUSE THEY HAVE THE MOST
TESTS.
TESTS. NEW YORK IS THE EPICENTER BUT
ANDREW CUOMO CONTINUES TO REMIND
PEOPLE WE’RE TESTING MORE
PEOPLE, THAT’S WHY OUR NUMBERS
ARE SO HIGH.
I THINK IN THIS STATE AND IN
THIS COUNTRY PEOPLE MAYBE AREN’T
WRAPPING THEIR HEADS AROUND THIS
AS WELL AS WE NEED TO, BUT WE
WERE SO SLOW IN GETTING STARTED
WITH TESTING THAT WE DON’T HAVE
ACCURATE NUMBERS ABOUT THIS
VIRUS BECAUSE IT COULD HAVE BEEN
SPREADING FOR WEEKS WITHOUT
PEOPLE KNOWING ABOUT IT AND
BECAUSE WE WERE SO SLOW, PEOPLE
WEREN’T GETTING TESTED.
>> THANK YOU, AS ALWAYS, FOR
YOUR ANALYSIS.