Hi! This is "A Minute Of Overpass". My name is Eric, and I make apps. Now, this week I wanna
talk about "The App Market Bubble".
Okay, so a few weeks ago I went to go see the movie "The Big Short" which is really
good. And you know, I really enjoyed it, but it got me thinking a lot about the
app market, and whether or not we're in a big tech bubble or anything like that,
and it reminds me a lot of some of the other bubbles we've been through, 'cause
I'm in my early 40's, so I'm kinda
you know, I've been through a few of them . 'Cause I can remember back in the late 90's, I was
a web developer, you know, 98...99, you know, and early 2000's, all the way up to becoming
an app developer, I suppose. And I can remember I was working for this small company in
the early 2000's and..and quite a few people came to me and said, you know,
"Hey Eric! You're a web developer. I don't understand why you're not releasing this big website,
a big website to make millions in it?", and they said "I tell you what, I'll give
you my idea and... and the two of us can partner on it. You code it, I'll you know, I'll
be the brains behind the operation, and we'll make millions." and fortunately I'm
never...never did anything like that, but eventually, what happened is that the
bubble burst. Everyone lost confidence in the web, and calmer heads prevailed.
People started to realize you couldn't just release a website and people would
go find it, you know, spontaneously, and...and start spending money on it. But I was
pretty well employed after that, so once the...the tech bubble burst, which we refer to it
the early 2000...2002 or whatever, then you know, I got a lot of corporate jobs. I
work for a lot of investment banks, building websites for them, and not
external facing websites, but just stuff for their employees, for their
contacts, and all that kind of stuff. So that was very much...a very much gainful
employment afterwards.
Later on like in 2006...2007, I can remember working at an investment bank ,and it
seems like everybody around me in the same job that I was, had more than one
house. They were, you know, some people have like 5 or 6 houses as rental
properties, because it was getting so crazy where everybody was getting into
real estate as a...as an easy way to make money, and they were telling me that I
should get into it. Now, the reason I didn't get into it now,
was not because I thought I saw it as the big bubble that it was, and I was
smart. It's
more from fear. Like I don't want to get involved in all that kind of stuff, and luckily I did it, because it
was a few short years later or the next year then, you know, that bubble burst and
a lot of people lost their houses and and all that kind of stuff, but...
it was...it was more the...the frantic way of...of that. So people ask me if I
think now we're...the app market is a bubble, and I have to say "Absolutely, yes
you're right". We are such a bubble and the reason I say that is because you see
a lot of irrationality at the moment, the same way you did in the early days of
the web, right?. When we look back at those days in the early 2000's with pets.com and
all that kind of stuff, we could see it for as crazy as it was, but yeah you know,
everybody was kind of swept up in it, and this is what you started to see...to see what
the app market too. People have this, you know, they have this idea, and they think that the ideas
just gonna...to lead to millions, or will see something like a big purchase
of an app by, like Google or something like that, and think "Oh that was just a guy
starting out in its garage, I could do the same thing. So people are spending like a
lot of money to produce apps, and it's... it's irrational because
we consider how many apps are actually being released, thousands per day
onto the app market. It really is hard to to be found so, and I'm starting to
see the shift now, kind of if the bubble hasn't already burst, its gonna
burst soon, right?. So I get like two types of people who contact me. I get
individuals or companies. So with individuals, a lot of times it's somebody
who has a big idea that they wanna try, and they want to, they think it
will, it will make money, and it's...it's really hard for me to...to gauge, and they'll
ask my opinion as to whether or not it'll make money, and I can't say one way
or the other, 'cause I had the same thing with my app, you know, Ear Spy, my biggest
app, was the first one I released. It was my idea. It continues to generate income
for me. I don't have to work if I don't want to because of this app. I mean it's so
it's...it does work. You can make money through apps. However, it's not, you know, it's not
the runaway hit. I'm not a millionaire.
I don't live in the mansion yet, but the other type of client that does come in
is...is a company, and it's like a lot lately. Seems to be more companies are moving in
the same way with the web where, you know, it stopped being the...the lone individual
who wanted to...to set the world on fire, but it can be the investment banks or
whatever who wanted to build something for their employees. So lately, I've
been getting a lot of clients who are just, you know, they say "Hey Eric! We have,
we've got these these couple hundred users, or a few thousand users, or all of
our clients, we need a tool that they can do such as such with." and they're not
looking to become rich, but they're looking to have something to...to help
their clients so it's... it's I think we're at the point now where the..the app bubble
is going to burst. If it hasn't already, and cooler heads will prevail.
Now, what that does, that does not mean that you cannot make money through apps,
but it...it means that you have to be more realistic with your expectations, just
like when we look back at the early days of the web, the web didn't go away, but
people stop being so irrational about it. People started looking at it more as a...
as an investment. So I'm gonna work on this website just because I release it
then I have to start looking at, you know, making it well in Google. I have to start working
at convergence so people can get to it, all that kind of stuff, and you know when you
look at a movie like The Big Short, you start looking at it, years from now we'll
look back at this time if they can, "Hey do you remember how everyone went so crazy
about apps?". "Do you remember when...when someone had an app idea, they would...they would
carry it around with them and not let anyone look at it, pretend it was gold?", but
that's the way it's gonna be. So, yes we are definitely in an app bubble, but that
doesn't mean that it's not gonna work out well for us in the future, but you
know, cooler heads will prevail and those of us who are gonna stick with it which
is my attention at the moment. We'll do well.
Okay? So that's it for this week. I hope you enjoyed it, and I'll talk to you next
week.
Hey! I really hope you liked that video. Now, I do this once a week so if you...if you
wanna hear more or you wanna hear more about our experiences with the app store
either Google Play or iTunes, please go ahead and subscribe to the channel, and please
like this video and leave a comment. I love reading the comments. I love hearing
what you have to say, even if it's just Hello
or whatever, and like I say before, if you're not sure what to say in a comment,
like I never know what to say in a comment...I'll make it easier for you.
If you like it, just go ahead and say "Gnarley" which is an 80's term, or
if you didn't like it...just say "Bogus", and if you didn't think anything of it, just
say "Eh". So that will be a big, big, big help. And another thing you could do
which I'd really appreciate it. If you are on the app store and you wanna try one
of our apps, look up some of the Overpass Apps. Applications either on iTunes or
Google Play, and leave a review, and let us know what you think about it, either
good or bad, but, you know, it's a ...we are all trying to build up in the market so... so that
will be a big help. So that's it, I'll talk to you next week!