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DAVID: WELL, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT
VLADIMIR PUTIN AND CHINESE
PRESIDENT XI JINPING POWWOWING
AT THE BEIJING OLYMPICS,
ANNOUNCING A PARTNERSHIP OF
SORTS AGAINST THE U.S. AND
WESTERN NATIONS.
THIS AS SOURCES SAY RUSSIA HAS
70 OF ITS TROOPS -- 70% OF ITS
TROOPS IN PLACE FOR A FULL
INVASION OF UKRAINE.
RETIRED LIEUTENANT COLONEL DANNY
DAVIS JOINS ME NOW.
THANKS FOR BEING HERE.
YOU KNOW, BACK DURING THE COLD
WAR -- AND I’M OLD ENOUGH TO
REMEMBER THOSE DAYS -- WE
WORRIED ABOUT AN ALLIANCE
BETWEEN THE OLD SOVIET YOON
ONAND MAO’S CHINA.
HAY NEVER REALLY PULL -- THEY
NEVER REALLY PULLED IT OFF, BUT
ARE THEY MOVING IN THE DIRECTION
OF A REAL ALLIANCE NOW?
>> YEAH.
YOU KNOW, ACTUALLY BACK THEN,
I’M JUST AS OLD AS YOU ARE, AND
I REMEMBER WE ACTUALLY SPENT
TIME COURTING CHINA TO PREVENT
THAT VERY THING TO GET THEM ON
OUR SIDE AND SIDELINE THE SOVIET
UPON.
BUT NOW IT’S WORKING IN THE
OPPOSITE DIRECTION, AND THEY
ABSOLUTELY ARE MOVING CROW --
CLOSER AND CLOSER TOGETHER.
LOOK, WE’VE GOT TO BE HONEST, AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THIS THIS
REASON IS BECAUSE WE KEEP
PRESSING BOTH CHINA AND RUSSIA
ON THEIR MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES
AND KEEP ON PUSHING SANCTIONS,
SANCTIONS, YOU KNOW, ON THEIR
ISSUES, ON THEIR BORDERS WHICH
WE DON’T AGREE WITH ANYTHING
THAT THEY’RE SAYING, BUT THEY
HOLD TO BE CORE ISSUES.
AND NOW THEY’RE FINDING COMMON
CAUSE AGAINST US, AND IT’S
SOMETHING WE HAVE TO PAY A LOT
OF ATTENTION TO.
DAVID: WELL, THEY’RE BOTH
EXPANSIONISTS.
THEY BOTH WANT TO -- RUSSIA
WANTS TO GET BACK WHAT IT LOST
AT THE END OF THE COLD WAR, AND
CHINA WANTS TO MOVE IN ON TAIWAN
AND OTHER PLACES.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER A
RUSSIAN INVASION WHICH DOES SEEM
LIKE IT’S GOING TO HAPPEN VERY
SOON, WHETHER THAT WILL PROVIDE
SOME SORT OF COVER FOR CHINA TO
GO INTO TAIWAN.
DO YOU THINK THAT MIGHT HAPPEN?
>> I -- YOU CERTAINLY CAN’T
DISCOUNT THAT BECAUSE AT THE
SAME TIME THE WHOLE WORLD HAS
BEEN FOCUSED ON THE
RUSSIA-UKRAINE SITUATION, CHINA
HAS CONTINUED TO MAKE MILITARY
PROVOCATIONS LIKE THEY DID YEAR
WITH LOTS OF OVERFLIGHTS -- NOT
OVERFLIGHTS, BUT FLIGHTS VERY
NEAR THE AIR SPACE OF TIEN WAN,
DIRECT WARNINGS FROM HIGH
RANKING GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS
THAT THE U.S. RISKS WAR WITH
CHINA OVER THE TAIWAN ISSUE.
AND, LOOK, IT’S JUST, FROM A
MILITARY PERSPECTIVE, IF ONE
SIDE OR THE OTHER GOES, IT MAKES
A LOT OF SENSE FOR THE OTHER
SIDE TO SAY, HEY, THIS IS OUR
MOTION.
SO IT IS DEFINITELY A LEGITIMATE
POSSIBILITY.
DAVID: WELL, WE’RE HEARING SOME
ESTIMATES ABOUT THE COST TO
PUTIN AND THE COST TO THE WORLD
IN TERMS OF CASUALTY FIGURES NOW
FROM SOME OF OUR RUSSIA WATCHERS
IF THEY HAVE A FULL INVASION OF
UKRAINE, AND NOW THEY’RE
THINKING, YOU KNOW, HE MAY FEEL
FREE TO GO ALL THE WAY TO KIEV,
TO THE CAPITAL, AND JUST TAKE
OVER THE WHOLE THING, 5-25,000
UKRAINIAN TROOPS KILLED OR
WOUNDED, 4,000 RUSSIAN TROOPS
KILLED, AN ESTIMATED 25-50,000
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES ALONG WITH
1-5 MILLION POSSIBLE REFUGEES IN
EUROPE.
I KNOW EUROPE DOESN’T LIKE THOSE
FIGURES.
WHAT ABOUT RUSSIA?
PUTIN, AS CALLOUS AN INDIVIDUAL
AS HE IS, HE MIGHT FACE SOME
PUSHBACK FROM THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE
IF CASUALTIES MOUNT ON THE
RUSSIAN SIDE.
>> I MEAN, THAT’S CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH I, FRANKLY,
THINK THOSE ARE VERY LOW
NUMBERS.
I THINK THE NUMBERS IN AN ACTUAL
WAR ARE VERY LOW BECAUSE I THINK
THAT THE KILLING POWER AND
STRIKING POWER IS SO MUCH HIGHER
THAN ANYTHING THAT WE’VE SEEN IN
AN ACTUAL WAR IN DECADES.
IT’S MUCH WORSE THAN ANYBODY
THINKS.
BUT I TELL YOU, THE FOCUS FOR US
SHOULD NOT BE ON THEIR
CASUALTIES, BUT ON THE POTENTIAL
COST TO US.
AND THAT’S WHY, LOOK, NO MATTER
WHAT WE WANT TO SAY, RUSSIA
APPEARS POISED TO STRIKE HERE,
AND THE ONE WAY WE CAN PROBABLY
DETER THEM IS NOT WITH SANCTIONS
OR ANYTHING ELSE, BUT WITH
SAYING, HEY, WE’RE JUST GOING TO
TAKE UKRAINE MEMBERSHIP IN NATO
OFF THE TABLE, WE’RE GOING TO
PUT A MORATORIUM ON IT BECAUSE
IT IS NOT IN OUR INTEREST TO
HAVE UKRAINE IN NATO, AND IF
THAT CAN PREVENT A WAR, THAT’S
TEN TIMES BETTER THAN HOLDING
THIS TOUGH POSITION AND HAVING
UKRAINE INVADED, AND I THINK WE
NEED TO GIVE SERIOUS
CONSIDERATION TO THAT.
DAVID: A LOT OF MILITARY
FAMILIES, INCLUDING MY OWN, BY
THE WAY WITH, GET VERY NERVOUS
PARTICULARLY AFTER AFGHANISTAN
AT LOOKING AT TROOP MOVEMENTS
AND MOVING OUR OWN TROOPS CLOSER
TO WHERE THE FIRE’S ABOUT TO
BEGIN.
IS, IS THERE ANYTHING ANY DANGER
OF U.S. TROOPS BEING DRAWN INTO
ALL OF THIS?
>> WELL, THERE’S AN ABSOLUTE
DANGER.
THAT’S ONE OF THE THINGS I’VE
BEEN ARGUING ABOUT THAT, YOU
KNOW, WE’RE SENDING OVER 3,000
TROOPS CLOSER TO THE BORDER, AND
FRANKLY, THESE ARE LIGHT
INFANTRY TROOPS, THE 82ND
AIRBORNE AND A STRIKER BRIGADE,
AND THOSE ARE THE LIGHTEST --
EVEN IF YOU THOUGHT, I MEAN,
YOU’RE TALKING RUSSIA HAS HIGHLY
MECHANIZED FORCES THAT ARE VERY
WELL TRAINED AND LOTS OF THEM,
AND WE WOULDN’T STAND A CHANCE.
BUT THE FACT THAT YOU’RE MOVING
THEM CLOSER, YOU PROBABLY HAVE
NO INTENT TO USE THEM.
GOD FORBID THE PRESIDENT SHOULD
ACTUALLY SEND INFANTRY INTO AN
ARMORED NIGHT -- FIGHT, ALL YOU
DO IS RISK THE CHANCE OF ERROR
ACTUALLY CAUSING A WAR.
THIS IS NOT A GOOD MOVE, AND IT
CURRENT DETER PUTIN OR HELP US.
DAVID: COLONEL, VERY QUICKLY, I
DON’T WANT TO SCARE ANYBODY, BUT
PUTIN’S ALSO SUPPOSEDLY SHIFTED
NUCLEAR EXERCISES TO FEBRUARY
FROM WHAT WAS SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN
IN THE COMING FALL. SHOULD THAT
BE OF A CONCERN TO US?
>> IT ALWAYS IS, AND THAT’S ONE
OF THE MAIN THINGS I’VE BEEN
WARNING ABOUT FOR MONTHS, THE
POSSIBILITY IF ANYTHING GOES
SIDEWAYS, THE NUCLEAR ESCALATION
IS DEFINITELY THERE AND ON THE
TABLE, AND THIS JUST HIGHLIGHTS