- Tesla did it again
by breaking yet another quarterly delivery record
in Q4 of 2019.
So, of course, we gotta take those numbers,
plug 'em into our forecast model,
see what it means for the future
and see what it means compared to the rest of the industry.
It's pretty interesting.
Let's read the data.
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In Q4 of 2019, Tesla delivered 112,000 vehicles,
a new record and 23% up from Q4 of 2018,
which also was a record at the time.
So the hits just keep on coming.
Q4 is continuing to be a monster quarter
for Tesla year after year.
Now if you look at the deliveries by model,
yeah, the model three absolutely dominates here
and you can see why.
It's the lower priced version.
It's the more mass market one
and they're producing far more of them than any other.
Elon even said that it is almost nostalgic producing
the S and the X until the refresh comes
which we'll think about for this coming year,
but the Model 3 is basically it for Tesla right now.
It is the most popular model by far compared
to all the other ones out there
and probably will be until the Model Y really hits
its stride sometime later this year
and then really hitting its swing next year.
The Model 3 is just absolutely crushing it here
and abroad actually.
So, Tesla in this release gave us some really positive signs
about China and this is something that I think we all kind
of had a clue about,
but is probably new to some of you.
So, the China Gigafactory only began construction back
in February-ish of 2019
and already has produced just under 1,000 cars
that are, as they said, customer deliverable.
Meaning they weren't test vehicles, they weren't prototypes,
testing the line, whatever.
They were actual cars that can be delivered
and some of them have been delivered already
as we saw recently in a ceremony
where they delivered 15 cars to some
of the first employees there at the Gigafactory 3.
So they've already produced just under 1,000
and in that statement they said that they are now
at a run rate of greater than 3,000 per week.
That is insane progress.
Not something that is unheard of,
but in terms of expectations,
they just absolutely blew it outta the water.
And I think the China factory is gonna add even more
to Tesla's overall footprint in the world
as the EV leader now that this thing is up and running
and they're delivering and just really hitting
on all cylinders?
Gears?
So using the S-law growth curve
that Elon states is how the manufacturing models spin up
and how the factories come on line
and applying the numbers we actually have,
that 1,000 number as of today
and 3,000 in terms of production per week,
we can see that basically this thing just goes straight up.
Now the max output for the factory there
is estimated to be around 500,000
and the current phase will only have about 250,000 capable.
So we're not gonna be really looking
for a lot more than 250,000 for the next year or two,
but eventually it'll hit around that 10,000 per week mark
which gives it around 500,000 cars produced per year.
So for 2020, what I'm expecting the China factory to do
is just north of 283,000 vehicles,
give or take a few percent.
But using that S-log growth curve
and applying the numbers we already have,
that's what it comes out to be.
So, we'll see how this shakes out
and as quarters go on and we get more information,
assuming Tesla is gonna continue to give us information
about China versus the Fremont plant,
I will continue to plug these numbers
into that model and it'll essentially just get more
and more accurate over time.
At the early stage like this it's really difficult
to be super accurate with this,
but we are using math here and an algorithm,
this isn't just finger to the wind taking a wild guess.
So for 2019 Tesla comes in at 368,000 vehicles delivered,
a new record.
In fact, that's more than the previous two years combined.
It's crazy.
Every year it seems Tesla just almost doubles
this entire fleet.
Of course it's gonna slow down as the fleet gets bigger
and bigger which it has tremendously in the past year,
but in 2020 I'm upping my estimate
from a previous around 650,000
now that we have more information about China
to just over 700,000 vehicles.
I'm at 703,000 vehicles delivered in 2020.
So, huge jump even doubling what we did almost in 2019.
So, again, Tesla's growth is just tremendous here.
Now going into 2021 and 2022,
of course these things are pretty fuzzy,
I'm sure the team at Tesla has much more accurate data
instead of just this public data,
it can probably model this better.
But thinking about the German Gigafactory
Gigafactory 4 coming online,
depending on how fast that goes,
they could be looking at over one million cars delivered
in 2021 achieving a goal that Elon had talked about
for years now.
So, beyond that there's a lot of speculation here,
but I'm looking at 1.4 million cars produced in 2022.
By then we'll probably hear
about another Gigafactory or two.
Maybe another one in Asia.
Maybe another one somewhere in North America, who knows.
There's a lot of factors and variables,
but the growth continues and let the good times roll
as they like to say.
And the last chart I wanna look at
which is always a fun one,
is to baseline the growth of these different models.
So what we do is instead of having an actual timeline
on our X axis, what we have is the baseline,
so months since launch.
Meaning, if you launched the Model S in January of 2012,
month one would be the first interval
which would also be the same for the Model 3
even though that was July of 2018.
So that way you can kinda see the growth
of them in a relative term instead
of an actual timeline which is just
a better way to look at it.
So, with that again, yes the Model 3
is absolutely dominating.
Would there over 450,000,
448,000 Model 3s on the road in the world today
and yeah, that's surpassed the Model S
and Model X, probably gonna be both of them combined,
there will be more Model 3s very soon.
And then, next year, 2020, something big
to look forward to is Model Y.
We know that at Fremont where they make the cars now
here in California,
they are adding a line and it'll just be one line
that is where they make the Model Y
and if that is able to produce like the Model 3 line,
we're gonna see another several thousand,
three, four, 5,000 a week by the end of 2020
and then going up to maybe six or 7,000,
maybe even beyond, who knows, into 2021.
So, more stuff coming here and of course on this channel
this is what we do.
We'll get the earnings call later in February.
I'll come back.
We'll kinda put that in context,
share my thoughts on it and what I think that means
for the future.
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