Ukraine is the elephant in the room of Europe. Think about it, Europe is the most peaceful
continent on the planet... except for Ukraine. This country has been invaded by Russia for
6 years and the question is, what is NATO doing about it?
In previous VisualPolitik videos we have already told you why Ukraine is the poorest country
in Europe. And yes, it is true, the main factor to explain all this misery is the corruption
of the Ukrainian elites themselves.
However, it is undeniable that the Russian invasion makes it very difficult for Ukraine
to pull itself out of this poverty. Take a look at this map.
(MAP)
Since 2014, the Crimean peninsula has been directly controlled by Russia. In addition,
these two easternmost regions, which are called DONETSK and LUHANSK are controlled by separatists
who, in turn, are supported by Russia. At any moment, Russia could try to conquer more
regions. So the question is, would you set up a factory or an office in Ukraine knowing
that, at any moment, the city you are in could go to war?
And you’ll say, come on, do you really think that Russia could invade more regions of Ukraine?
And the answer is... Why wouldn’t they? Think of it this way, the war between Ukraine
and Russia is totally imbalanced. Ukraine spends about $5.2 billion a year on its armed
forces. Russia spends $65 billion. And that explains why news stories like this one are
so concerning.
(Ukraine says Russia still has 100,000 troops near its borders. Al Jazeera 11 May 2021)
For the time being, Russia has not advanced its positions. At least not since 2014. But
if one day they did... What could Ukraine do, how could they defend themselves? As you
can imagine, the situation in this country is critical. And that explains why the Ukrainians'
number one wish is this.
(Ukraine wants to speed up joining NATO to send 'real signal to Russia'. Euronews 06
April 2021)
So why is it so important for Ukraine to join NATO, you may ask? In case some of you don't
know, NATO is a defense union. That is, if you attack a member country, the rest are
obliged to retaliate. In other words, if Ukraine were a NATO member country, the United States,
Germany, France and Spain would have to send troops to defend them.
They would no longer be alone against the Russian Empire.
So the question is: Is it possible for Ukraine to join NATO, and is NATO really ready to
accept them? And more importantly... How are Ukraine's armed forces preparing to defend
themselves against Russia? Today we are going to answer these questions but first let's
look at a bit of history.
(VODKA, RACKETS AND KALASHNIKOVS)
They say a picture is worth a thousand words.
So I am going to show you a video in order for you to understand how the Ukrainian army
operated up until the 2014 war. What I am going to show you now is real. It is an official
recruitment announcement for joining the Ukrainian armed forces. Let's take a look at it because
it’s priceless.
(VIDEO)
Well, here we see some sort of Ukrainian yokel trying to pick up some chicks by showing off
his brand new BMW... something pretty typical in Ukraine. But suddenly, something unexpected
happens... a tank appears! Also pretty normal in Ukraine (apparently).
And in that tank there are three soldiers with so much make-up on them that they look
like Barbie's boyfriend. And here the soldier called Dimitri climbs down and asks the girls
for some water. And, of course, the girls pass on the yokel. You know, guys, if you
want to pull chicks in Ukraine, a tank is better than a BMW. And here it is when they
share with you the ultimate reason for enlisting in the Ukrainian army. Check it out.
There you have it! In any other country, enrollment ads appeal to patriotism, sacrifice or military
values… but Ukrainians wanted citizens to sign up for the army because its soldiers
get to spend all night long showing off to girls in their shiny tank and partying. Remember
this ad is real and it was paid for by the Ukrainian Government. So this means this was
the impression Ukraine had of its own army.
The ad keeps going… Now they talk for a while... I work in the army, I want to marry
you, do you have an "insta"... and then the soldiers leave.
The Ukrainian Army. Why choose between making love or making war when you can have both?
Well. After seeing this masterpiece, I am going to give you some data that will leave
you terrified.
Ukraine is one of the largest arms exporters in the world. That's right. During the Soviet
era, Ukraine produced 30% of the USSR's armaments. There were more than one million people working
in the more than 750 Ukrainian arms factories. And you will say,
So what happened after the fall of the Soviet Union? Well... something that probably won't
surprise you. Almost the entire Soviet arsenal disappeared. That’s right. It is estimated
that between 1992 and 1998, Ukraine lost more than $32 billion dollars’ worth of armaments.
So where did all these weapons go? Well, to wars like Sierra Leone, Croatia, etc... This
was, after all, the golden age for illegal arms dealers.
But the story does not end there! Arms dealers aside, the Ukrainian State also did huge business
with armaments. All those former Soviet factories were still producing and what were they producing
exactly? Well, mainly Russian weapons parts. For example, most of the engines used in Russian
helicopters were labeled "Made in Ukraine".
To give you an idea, in 2012, Ukraine was the 4th largest arms exporter in the world.
And its main customers were Pakistan, China and, of course, Russia. All this explains
why, up until 2014, the majority of Ukrainians said NO to joining NATO.
(Ukraine Says 'No' to NATO. It is not surprising that about half of Ukrainians (51%) gave NATO
an unfavorable rating. Pew Research Center 29 March 2010)
And I know what you are thinking... So... Ukraine is a military power! How is it possible
that Russia dares to invade them? There are two very important things we need to understand.
The first is that Ukraine only exported parts for manufacturing weapons. In other words,
Ukraine was barely capable of producing any specific weapon. But that’s not all! As
you can imagine, the Ukrainian military industry was no stranger to corruption.
To give you an idea, in 2010, all arms companies were unified under one conglomerate:
UKROBORONPROM. This company employs more than 80,000 people. However, in 10 years they have
barely managed to manufacture one single tank in its entirety.
As usual in this country, almost all the money for armaments... ended up in the pockets of
oligarchs and politicians.
So what about the army? Well, looking at the video I showed you earlier, you can already
get an idea. In 2014, Ukraine had 168,000 soldiers. The territorial army had 41,000
troops, for example.
But of those 41,000 troops, only 6,000 were ready to fight. And when I say ready to fight,
I mean they were trained and equipped. That is, only 6,000 soldiers had such basic things
as boots, camouflage suits and rifles.
Given this situation, you will understand why the Russian invasion was a military walkover.
And the question you may be wondering now is, how can Ukraine defend itself today, have
they changed their army, or are they just going to surrender sooner or later?
We are going to take a look at that right now.
(A CROWDFUNDED ARMY)
In case anyone is a bit lost in this story, let's recap: in 2013, thousands of Ukrainians
took to the streets in protest and overthrew the government, which was pro-Russian.
In 2014, Ukraine appointed a new government that was anti-Russian. This provoked the Russian-speaking
regions of Ukraine to want to secede from the country. Russia invaded the Crimean peninsula
and supported the separatist rebels of the Donbas region.
I know, this is a very broad summary but, if you want more detail, we have several videos
where we cover this conflict in depth.
As I mentioned earlier, Ukraine had hardly any soldiers to fight on the front lines.
Well, thousands of civilians went to war of their own volition.
That’s right. Ordinary citizens, with no training, no weapons, no equipment whatsoever,
got in their cars and went to the front to fight. That's how the Volunteer Battalions
were born. Within these battalions there were people of all types and ideologies.
If you follow Russian propaganda channels, you already know that many of them were neo-Nazi
groups. But alongside them, there were also Muslim groups.
And you’re probably thinking Muslims? In Ukraine? Yes, there were. For example, the
SHEIKH MANSUR battalion were warriors who came from Chechnya to support the cause.
And you may ask, but what is the use of having so many warriors... if they don't even have
weapons? Remember that these volunteers could be any one of you.
Can you imagine that, suddenly, you find yourself fighting on a front line? How do you get a
rifle? Who pays for it?
Well, take a look.
(Crowdfunding a war: In a David versus Goliath-like battle, Ukrainian forces look to private companies
and crowdfunded volunteer organisations to develop defence software and drone hardware
in their fight against Russia. The Guardian 24 May 2015)
That’s right! Faced with the vacuum left by the official army, Ukrainians organized
themselves in their own way. This is how NGOs like "Come Back Alive" emerged, buying bulletproof
vests and night vision goggles for volunteer soldiers. This NGO alone raised more than
$100,000 in its first 45 days of existence.
So where did they get so much money in a country as poor as Ukraine? The answer is from the
Ukrainian Diaspora. There are more than 20 million Ukrainians scattered around the world.
Around 345,000 of them live in the United States and have enough money to make donations.
So, in a very short time, volunteer armies raised millions of dollars to buy guns, boots
and all kinds of military equipment.
And you will say, what a nice story! Right? An army created by the people? Actually, there
is another, uglier name for this practice. We are actually talking about illegal arms
trafficking. And that explains news stories like this.
(PayPal doesn't work in Ukraine, but resourceful locals know how to use it. Kyiv Post 5 October
2018)
But we're not just talking about PayPal! One of the conditions set by the US for sending
weapons to Ukraine was that all those volunteer groups would join the regular army. In fact,
by 2019, almost all of those volunteers were already regular soldiers. And this is where
the good news finally comes.
Because these volunteer forces are much more motivated and harder to corrupt. Remember
that, in 2014, Ukraine barely had any combat-ready soldiers? Well right now we are talking about
250,000 troops. They don't have particularly good weaponry. But at least they all have
boots, suits and rifles. Ukraine's army has changed from the bottom up. But it’s better
if you take a look for yourselves.
Check out the new advertisement for recruiting soldiers.
(VIDEO: "This fortress is defended by the army of Ukraine. Our army")
I think it speaks for itself. In any case, the question you may be asking yourselves
is, is all this enough to defend Ukraine against a Russian attack, or is NATO assistance still
necessary? Well, we are going to look at that right now.
(COULD UKRAINE JOIN NATO?)
The short answer to this question: no. I mean, nobody can predict the future... at VisualPolitik
we don't have a crystal ball, but it is very difficult to imagine Ukraine joining NATO.
For one very simple reason: if Ukraine joins NATO, Russia would have its enemy on the border.
This would be reason enough for Russia to go to open war to avoid it. In other words,
it is very risky.
And, as sad as it sounds for Ukrainians watching this video... the reward does not outweigh
the risk. We could say that this thinking is what has guided the US and EU stance in
recent years.
And you will say... so no one is willing to do anything to defend Ukraine? Not exactly.
They just want to do it differently. You see, since 2014, the United States has spent over
$2.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine. That may sound like a lot of money but, in reality,
it's a drop in the bucket when compared to the more than $6.4 trillion that has been
spent on wars in the Middle East.
In any case, this money has been enough to send an arsenal that has been key for avoiding
casualties. For example, Ukraine now has more than 300 humvees, which are those armored
all-terrain vehicles you see in the movies.
They have also sent anti-artillery radars. With this equipment alone, Ukraine is estimated
to have reduced casualties by 70%. NATO has also sent thousands of instructors to train
the soldiers. And you will say... That's all? Couldn’t they have sent some artillery and
rifles?
At the end of the day, both radars and humvees are useless for attacking. And we are talking
about a war, so where are the lethal weapons? And this is where we come back to what I mentioned
before: NATO wants to avoid attacks at all costs. The goal is to prevent the situation
from escalating. And you can see that very well with this example.
(Ukraine gets U.S. military aid, including Javelin anti-tank missiles. Reuters 17 June
2020)
Have you ever played Call of Duty? If so, you're probably familiar with the Javelin
rocket launcher. It is a portable rocket launcher system. That is, you can carry it on your
shoulder and fire projectiles that destroy tanks. Now that's a lethal weapon – and
it’s not just any weapon!
To give you an idea, each of the units costs $280,000. But that's just the cannon! Each
rocket costs $174,000. In other words, for the same cost as a single Javelin shot, you
could buy an apartment in almost any city in the world.
As you can imagine, these rocket launchers would be crucial in a battle against Russian
tanks. But there’s a catch. Ukraine can't have its 37 brand new Javelins on the front
line – that’s right!
They are forced to store them in a depot in the western regions of the country, hundreds
of kilometers away from the war zone. And why, you may ask, what is the point of sending
weapons to a country and not letting them use them?
There’s a one-word answer: deterrence. Neither the United States nor NATO wants Ukraine to
attack Russia. Nor do they want to arouse Putin's fury. So they limit themselves to
enough weaponry to deter Russia from escalating the war.
In other words, it is very difficult to think that Ukraine would ever join NATO. However,
NATO is helping Ukraine to modernize its military so that it can withstand further attacks.
But now the question is over you: Do you think this is enough? Will we see new attacks from
Russia again? Is it just a matter of time before NATO has to enter fully into this conflict?
Do you think Ukraine can really modernize its military... or is it going to be impossible
to stamp out corruption?
You can leave me your answer in the comments. As always, don't forget that here on VisualPolitik
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