Conventional wisdom has basically been telling us ever since Joe Biden was sworn in his president,
that Democrats are going to lose control of at least the house of representatives in the
2022 midterms.
Right?
Everybody's been talking about that again.
Since January 20th, 2021, we've all expected.
It Republicans have thought it, Democrats have thought it polls ha polls and polls have
shown it.
Historical precedent has proven that this is what happens when a new party takes over
the white house and controls the house of representatives.
They lose control in the midterms.
It's only not happened a handful of times in the last, you know, modern times, really
our lifetimes.
That was the conventional wisdom until this week.
When not one, not two, not three, but four different national polls came out, showing
that Democrats are now to retain control of the house of representatives in the midterms.
If it was one poll, I wouldn't be talking about it.
Two polls.
It becomes interesting, but four polls.
That's a fricking trend folks.
Let's look at the numbers here.
The first one Georgetown Institute of politics and public service battleground civility poll.
I really think y'all need to work on shortening that title a little bit, by the way, showed
Democrats narrowly ahead of Republicans in a generic congressional ballot by two points.
Another poll conducted by USA today's Suffolk university showed Democrats four points ahead.
Survey results from the economist and U gov had Democrats six points ahead and polling
by Politico and morning consult showed Republicans trailing Democrats by four points.
So one poll says, Democrats are up by two with generic ballots, you know, would you
rather have a Democrat or a Republican one poll had two point advantage for Democrats.
Two polls had a four point advantage.
The one pole had a six point advantage.
So of course you average those out Democrats are ahead by four points right now, as we
head into August with just three months until the midterms.
Yes, we have three months.
Yes, these polls are gonna change, but here's the thing.
Democrats have been polling behind Republicans for this year's midterms for a year, for a
year folks.
And now suddenly we're approaching the light at the end of the tunnel.
That is the 2022 midterms.
And all of these polls are now shifting in saying, holy crap, people actually want Democrats
to retain control of the house.
This would be unprecedented.
I mean, honest to God, this would be a massive, huge advantage for the democratic party.
If they retain
Control of that house.
Oh, it gets even better because this week 5 38 actually confirmed what I've been talking
about for weeks.
And that is that Democrats are now poised to not only retain control of the Senate,
but actually pick up quite a few seats.
According to the averages on 5 30, 8, Democrats are now projected to win three seats and Republicans
are projected to lose three seats, which would make the makeup of the Senate next January
53, Democrats, 47 Republicans.
Again, I have been saying that for weeks, so it's nice to see the polling place finally
catch up with what we're seeing on the ground.
Uh, you know, a little bit of a feather in my cap there, but folks, again, I don't wanna
get anybody too optimistic, but I'm starting to feel optimistic here.
And it's weird.
It's rare.
I don't usually get that, but all of the polls changing is a good sign for Democrats and
a horrible sign for Republicans who, as we also learn this week are struggling to raise
money.
And if Donald Trump throws his hat into the ring prior to the midterms, I think Democrats
are keeping the house.
I don't wanna make that projection yet.
Cuz Trump has not thrown his hat into the ring, but that could, if it happens, be the
final nail on the coffin for the Republican party, this.