>> I CAN HARDLY
>>> WHEN IT COMES TO COVID-19,
TRUMP HAS SIMPLY GIVEN UP.
HE’S WAVED THE WHITE FLACHLGT
HE’S WALKED AWAY.
HIS FAILURES COME WITH A
TERRIBLE HUMAN COST AND DEEP
ECONOMIC TOLL.
>> JOE BIDEN YESTERDAY
CRITICIZING PRESIDENT TRUMP’S
RESPONSE TO THE CORONAVIRUS
CRISIS.
ACCORDING TO A NEW ABC NEWS
INDIANAPOLIS SOES POLL OUT JUST
THIS MORNING, ONLY 33% OF
AMERICANS APRAV OF PRESIDENT
TRUMP’S HANDLING OF THE
PANDEMIC.
HE’S DOWN EIGHT POINTS SINCE
JUNE.
67% OF AMERICANS DISAPPROVE.
AMONG REPUBLICANS, HIS APPROVAL
OF HANDLING THE CRISIS HAS
DIPPED IN MID-JUNE AND ONLY 26%
OF INDEPENDENTS APPROVE OF THE
WAY HE’S HANDLING THIS CRISIS.
THAT’S A 414-POINT DROP JUST
SINCE LAST MONTH.
AS FOR HIS HANDLING OF RACE
RELATIONS, 32% SAY THEY APPROVE.
67% SAY THEY DISAPPROVE.
JOINING US NOW, THREE WINNERS OF
PRESIDENTIAL
SERVED AS WHITE HOUSE DEPUTY
CHIEF OF STAFF TO PRESIDENT
OBAMA AND RAN HIS 2012 RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN.
RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN.
HE’S THE CEO OF THE MESSINA
GROUP.
AND WE HAVE PRESIDENT OF
BRILLIANT CORNERS RESEARCH AND
STRATEGIES AND AN MSNBC
POLITICAL ANALYST.
AND CO-HOST OF THE "CIRCUS" ON
SHOW TIME.
IT’S A GREAT GROUP.
WELCOME TO ALL THREE OF YOU.
YOU’VE WRITTEN A PIECE FOR
"VANITY FAIR" ABOUT A RETURN TO
DECENCY WHICH IS A THEME YOU ALL
RAN ON WITH GEORGE W. BUSH IN
2000 COMING OUT OF THE CLINTON
YEARS, RESTORED DECENCY.
THAT SEEMS TO BE A LOT OF THE
SUB TEXT OF WHAT JOE BIDEN IS
DOING.
>> IT IS, WILLIE.
AND THE THING THAT I’M STRUCK
BY, THERE ARE A LOT OF PARALLELS
BETWEEN HIS MESSAGE NOW AND
GEORGE BUSH’S IN 2000.
THE ONLY LIFE RAFT THAT DONALD
TRUMP IS HANGING ON RIGHT NOW IS
THAT HE’S BETTER TO HANDLE THE
ECONOMY.
THAT MAY GO SOUTH BEFORE THIS
ELECTION IS OVER.
HE’S HANGING ONTO THE WISDOM
THAT OFTEN PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS ARE DECIDED BY THE
ECONOMY.
IN 1992, JAMES CARVILLE FAMOUSLY
SAID, IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID.
AND IT HAS BEEN TRADITIONALLY.
BUT THAT WAS THE CASE IN 2000
WHEN WE RAN, PEOPLE FELT VERY
GOOD ABOUT THE ECONOMY.
WE HAD TO HAVE A DIFFERENT KIND
OF MESSAGE.
WE DISCOVERED THAT PEOPLE WERE
WORRIED ABOUT THE CULTURAL
DRIFT, BILL CLINTON’S
IRRESPONSIBILITY IN THE CULTURE
DIRECTLY TIED TO MONICA LEWINSKY
AND WHAT HAPPENED THERE.
WE HAD A MESSAGE ABOUT RESTORING
HONOR AND DIGNITY TO THE WHITE
HOUSE.
AND I MADE ADS THAT HAD THAT
MESSAGE OVER AND OVER AND OVER
AGAIN.
IT’S THE MOST DOMINANT MESSAGE
THAT WE EXPRESSED.
AND WHEN JOE BIDEN WON THE
PRIMARIES HE SAID WE’RE CLOSER
TO RESTORING DECENCY TO THE
WHITE HOUSE AND I HEARD THAT AND
SAID, MAN, YOU’RE RIGHT ON
MESSAGE BECAUSE I THINK IN THIS
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, THERE ARE A
LOT OF OTHER THINGS THAT PEOPLE
CARE ABOUT.
THEY CARE ABOUT THE ECONOMY.
HIS SPEECH YESTERDAY WAS VERY
STRONG AND IF HE CHECK MATES
TRUMP ON THE ECONOMY, IT’S GAME
OVER.
>> CORNELL, YOU LIVED IN DATA ON
BOTH OF PRESIDENT OBAMA’S
CAMPAIGNS.
AS YOU LOOK AT POLLING RIGHT
NOW, NATIONAL POLLS ARE
INTERESTING.
THAT’S NOT HOW WE VOTE.
IF YOU LOOK IN SWING STATE
POLLING WITH JOE BIDEN LEADING,
AS OF NOW, IT’S ONLY JULY 10th,
LEADING IN PLACES LIKE MICHIGAN
AND WISCONSIN AND PENNSYLVANIA
THAT DONALD TRUMP OBVIOUSLY
NEEDS TO HOLD ON TO, IF YOU’RE
ON JOE BIDEN’S CAMPAIGN, HOW ARE
YOU FEELING THIS MORNING?
>> I’M OPTIMISTIC BUT NERVOUS AT
THE SAME TIME.
AND I WANT TO PICK UP ON WHAT MY
FRIEND JUST TALKED ABOUT WITH
THE ECONOMY, STUPID.
IT’S RACISM, STUPID, IN THIS
ELECTION.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT HOW BOTH COVID
AND RACISM IS OVERRUNNING THE
CONVENTIONAL ISSUES RIGHT NOW
AND THE POLLING DATA YOU JUST
SHOWED, THE PRESIDENT IS WAY
UNDER WATER ON DEALING WITH
COVID AND WAY UNDER WATER ON
DEALING WITH RACISM.
THE PUBLIC POLLING, YOU SEE A
MAJORITY OF VOTERS SAYING THAT
RACISM IS A MAJOR VOTING ISSUE
RIGHT NOW.
AND BATTLEGROUND POLLING THAT WE
HAVE, 78% OF WHITE COLLEGE
VOTERS PREFER A CANDIDATE WHO IS
MOST FOCUSED ON RACE AND
DISCRIMINATION.
50%, MUCH MORE LIKELY AMONG
WHITE COLLEGE VOTERS AND THAT
SORT OF CANDIDATE WHO IS MORE
FOCUSED ON RACISM BEATS THE
CANDIDATE OF LAW AND ORDER BY 30
POINTS AMONG WHITE COLLEGE
VOTERS.
YOU SEE A TREND LINE HAPPENING
BOTH IN VOTERS’ AWARENESS OF
RACISM AND FOR THE FIRST TIME
YOU HAVE A MAJORITY OF WHITE
VOTERS WHO ACTUALLY SEE THE
RACISM AND UNDERSTAND THAT
RACISM IS A MAJOR ISSUE.
I THINK WE’VE HAD THE YEAR OF
THE WOMAN.
I THINK WE’VE HAD THE YEAR OF
SOCCER MOM VOTER.
I THINK 2020 MIGHT BE THE YEAR
OF THE GEORGE FLOYD VOTER AS
VOTERS ARE VOTING ON RACISM AND
REJECTING DONALD TRUMP AND A LOT
OF REPUBLICANS AROUND IT.
>> CORNELL, I KNOW YOU’RE A GOOD
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST, THE MINUTE
A CAMPAIGN GETS A LEAD, YOUR
REACTION IS TO GET NERVOUS.
THAT’S PROBABLY THE RIGHT
REACTION.
JIM MESSINA, WHERE DO YOU SEE
THE RACE RIGHT NOW?
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF JOE BIDEN’S
MESSAGE YESTERDAY OF BY AMERICA.
AND WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE
ATTEMPT OF THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN TO
PAINT JOE BIDEN AS A LEFTIST IN
LEAGUE WITH SOME OF THE MEMBERS
OF CONGRESS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP
LIKES TO TALK ABOUT.
THAT’S NOT A LABEL THAT STICKS
BASED ON HIS RECORD FOR 40 YEARS
OR WHAT HE’S TALKING ABOUT
TODAY.
>> IT’S TRUE, WILLIE.
AND I THINK YESTERDAY IS GOING
TO BE KNOWN AS A BIG MOMENT IN
THIS CAMPAIGN.
THE ECONOMY IS THE ONLY THING
HOLDING DONALD TRUMP UP IN THIS
ELECTION AND JOE BIDEN WENT
RIGHT AT THAT SWEET SPOT
YESTERDAY AND HE DID IT IN THE
PERFECT JOE BIDEN WAY, A BLUE
COLLAR MANTRA.
SOMEWHERE OUT THERE JOE
SCARBOROUGH IS CELEBRATING.
HE TALKED ABOUT RECONSTRUCTING
OUR ECONOMY IN A WAY THAT MAKES
SENSE AND I THOUGHT IT WAS
EXACTLY WHAT HE NEEDS TO DO.
AND YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE
NUMBERS THAT WE WERE TALKING
ABOUT, ONLY A QUARTER OF
INDEPENDENT VOTERS IMPROVING ON
THE PRESIDENT’S NUMBERS ON
COVID, RACE RELATION NUMBERS,
HISTORICALLY BAD FOR THE
PRESIDENT.
THE ECONOMY IS THE ONLY THING
HOLDING HIM UP HERE.
AND I THINK IF YOU START TO LOOK
AT THE OTHER NUMBER THAT I
THOUGHT WAS PROFOUND THIS
MORNING, WILLIE, HIS NUMBER
STARTING TO CRACK AMONGST
REPUBLICANS.
WHEN YOU RUN A PRESIDENTIAL
CAMPAIGN, ONE OF THE NUMBERS YOU
CARE THE MOST ABOUT IS
ENTHUSIASM.
ARE YOUR VOTERS MORE
ENTHUSIASTIC THAN YOUR
OPPONENTS?
THIS HAS BEEN AN ABSOLUTE SEA
CHANGE IN SIX MONTHS BETWEEN THE
TWO CAMPAIGNS.
NOW IT’S DEMOCRATS WHO ARE
INCREDIBLY ENTHUSIASTIC.
YOU SAW THAT WITH JOE BIDEN’S
$141 MILLION NUMBER OF FINANCE
LAST MONTH.
YOU SAW IT IN THE SENATE RACES
WITH DEMOCRATS RAISING
UNBELIEVABLE AMOUNTS OF MONEY
AND YOU SEE THE PRESIDENT’S BASE
BEGINNING TO ERODE IN THESE
BATTLEGROUND STATES.
A QUARTER OF REPUBLICANS NOW
DISAPPROVING OF THE PRESIDENT ON
COVID, ON RACE RELATIONS IN THE
SIX BATTLEGROUND STATES THAT ARE
GOING TO MATTER.
>> MARK, WE’VE TALKED ABOUT HOW
THE PRESIDENT IS OUT OF STEP
WITH WHERE THE COUNTRY IS.
AS CORNELL POINTED OUT ON RACE
AND RACIAL JUSTICE, ALSO WHERE
THE COUNTRY IS ON CORONAVIRUS.
SAYING THINGS ARE FINE.
THAT’S NOT THE REALITY IN
PEOPLE’S LIVES.
HE FOCUSES ON THE PRESERVATION
OF AMERICAN HERITAGE, HE’S
TALKED ABOUT THE CONFEDERATE
FLAG, CRITICIZING NASCAR FOR
TAKING IT DOWN AT THEIR EVENTS.
BUT IT TURNS OUT THE COUNTRY IS
NOT FOCUSED.
WE HAVE A TWEET HERE, POLLING
HE’S SEEN IN SWING STATES,
THEY’RE NOT WORRIED ABOUT
CONFEDERATE STATUES OR TRUMP’S
TAXES THAT WE’VE BEEN TALKING
ABOUT THIS MORNING.
THEY’RE WORRIED ABOUT
CORONAVIRUS, THEY’RE WORRIED
ABOUT RACE RELATIONS AND THEIR
JOBS.
>> THAT’S THE BIGGER PROBLEM FOR
DONALD TRUMP WHICH IS HIS
INSTINCT -- THIS IS THE WAY HE
RAN IN 2016 -- IS TO GO
BACKWARDS.
HIS MESSAGE ABOUT MAKING AMERICA
GREAT AGAIN IS SENDING A MESSAGE
TO PEOPLE SAYING SO MUCH IS
HAPPENING IN THIS SOCIETY THAT
IS BAD FOR YOU.
WE HAVE OTHERS COMING ACROSS THE
BORDER, TAKING YOUR JOBS, LOSING
YOUR PAYCHECK, INDUSTRY HAS
LEFT.
SO DONALD TRUMP DOESN’T KNOW HOW
TO COMMUNICATE A FORWARD-LOOKING
MESSAGE THAT DEALS WITH ISSUES
LIKE COVID, DEALING WITH ISSUES
LIKE RACE.
THAT’S ALL ABOUT THE FUTURE.
DONALD TRUMP ONLY KNOWS HOW TO
TALK ABOUT THE PAST.
THAT’S WHY YOU SEE HIM RETURNING
TO CONFEDERATE STATUES AND RACES
AND ALL OF THESE OTHER ISSUES,
WILLIE.
>> CORNELL, A QUESTION ON HOW
THIS MESSAGING IS STARTING TO
GET BAKED IN.
WE’RE AT THE POINT IN A CAMPAIGN
WHERE YOU TYPICALLY TRY AND
BRAND THE OTHER PERSON.
IT SEEMS THAT DONALD TRUMP, BY
MISHANDLING COVID SO BADLY, HAS
BRANDED HIMSELF AS INCOMPETENT.
AND I WONDER HOW MUCH HIS
NUMBERS NOW ARE GOING TO BE
BAKED INTO WHAT WE SEE IN
NOVEMBER THAT THEY’RE SO SOLID
THAT HE CAN’T DIG HIMSELF OUT OF
IT?
>> THAT’S PART OF THE PROBLEM AS
THE TWO VETERANS THAT ALSO ON
THE SHOW KNOW.
IT’S HARD TO TURN AROUND A
NEGATIVE.
ONCE A NEGATIVE -- THAT WAS PART
OF THE PROBLEM WITH HILLARY.
IT WAS TOUGH.
HER UNFAVORABLE WAS UPSIDE DOWN
IN THE SAME WAY THAT DONALD
TRUMP WAS.
SO IT’S HARD TO TURN A NEGATIVE
AROUND.
TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, PEOPLE ASK
ME, WHY IS HE DOUBLING DOWN ON
THE DIVISION?
WHY IS HE DOUBLING DOWN ON SORT
OF THESE RACIAL ISSUES.
HE’S GOT NOTHING ELSE.
YOU CAN’T -- HE CAN’T BECOME
BILL CLINTON, ALL OF A SUDDEN
HE’S GOING TO BE THE CANDIDATE
WHO IS COMPASSIONATE AND FEELS
YOUR PAIN.
IF YOU GO BACK TO 2016 AND LOOK
AT THE DATA THERE, IT WASN’T
THAT VOTERS THOUGHT THAT DONALD
TRUMP WAS THE MOST COMPETENT
PERSON, THE RIGHT TEMPERAMENT TO
BE PRESIDENT.
OTHER THAN DOUBLING DOWN ON
RACIAL RESENTMENT, THIS IS NOT
SOMEONE WHO HAS A LOT OF OTHER
CARDS TO PLAY.
I’M NOT SURPRISED THAT HE’S
DOUBLING DOWN BECAUSE HE HAS TO
HOLD ON TO HIS BASE.
YOU LET HIM STOP BEING THE
TRIBAL STRONGMAN FOR THOSE
VOTERS RIGHT NOW WHO FEEL ANGST
ABOUT THE CHANGES IN THE
COUNTRY, THEY MOVE AWAY FROM
HIM, HE’S DONE.
>> WE’RE UP AGAINST THE TOP OF
THE HOUR.
WE’RE GOING TO FORCE YOU TO COME
BACK NEXT WEEK TO EXPAND OUR
CONVERSATION.
JIM, CORNELL, MARK, SUSAN, GREAT
INSIGHTS FROM PEOPLE WHO HAVE
RUN THESE BIG CAMPAIGNS AND WON.
THANKS SO MUCH, GUYS.
>>> THANK YOU ALL FOR WATCHING.