TIME FOR "KUDLOW."
♪.
LARRY: HELLO, FOLKS, WELCOME TO
"KUDLOW," I’M LARRY KUDLOW.
SO FAR THIS YEAR WE HAVE
OFFICIAL ESTIMATES FOR ECONOMIC
GROWTH AND INFLATION FOR THE
FIRST THREE QUARTERS OR NINE
MONTHS OF 2022.
THE RESULTS ARE VERY POOR.
FIRST, THE ECONOMY HAS NOT
GROWN.
THROUGH THE THIRD QUARTER REAL
GDP IS ESSENTIALLY FLAT FOR THE
YEAR.
SECOND, THE INFLATION RATE HAS
COME IN OVER 7%.
SO A FLAT LINE ECONOMY WITH A 7%
PLUS PRICE INCREASE, THOSE ARE
NUMBERS, THEY ARE FACTOIDS.
THAT IS ALL THERE IS.
NOW THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT
INFLATION IS SLOWING IN THE MOST
RECENT FIGURES, MAYBE TO AROUND
5% USING A BASE RATE THAT THE
FEDERAL RESERVE FOLLOWS BUT
AGAIN THE CLEVELAND FED HAS A
MEDIAN CPI STILL AROUND 7%.
AS I SAID BEFORE, THE INDEX OF
LEADING INDICATORS IS PLUNGING.
THE M2 MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH HAS
CRASHED ACTUALLY FROM ABOUT 30%
TO NEAR ZERO AND THE YIELD CURVE
IN THE TREASURY MARKET THROWN
2003-MONTH T-BILLS AND 10-YEAR
BONDS HAS INVERTED, RIGHT?
THE SHORT RATES ARE ABOVE THE
LONG RATES.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A RECESSION IN
2023 IS VERY HIGH.
NOW, ALL THAT MIGHT BRING
INFLATION DOWN, A RECESSION BUT
IT IS A VERY BLUNT AND PAINFUL
WAY TO DO IT.
SO, WE HAVE THIS LAME-DUCK
CONGRESS, WHICH UNFORTUNATELY
MAY WELL EMBARK ON A LAME DUCK
SPENDING SPREE THAT IF ENACTED,
WILL REVERSE WHAT LITTLE
INFLATION PROGRESS HAS BEEN
MADE.
AS "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL"
EDITORIALIZES TODAY, FEDERAL
SPENDING HAS INCREASED BY
ROUGHLY FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS IN
THE LAST TWO BIDEN YEARS.
THAT IS WHAT PUT THE PRESSURE ON
THE FEDERAL RESERVE TO GO ON A
MONEY PRINTING BING.
BUT RECENT FISCAL AND MONETARY
RESTRAINT MAY BE BADLY BROKEN. THAT’S MY WORRY.
THAT’S MY WORRY.
IN NAIR THEIR LAST GASP, HOUSE
DEMOCRATIC LIBERALS WANT
150 BILLION IN GENDER FOR GIANT
OMNIBUS BILL.
THAT WOULD WREAK HAVOC ON BUDGET
PROCESSES AND END WHAT CURRENT
FISCAL CONSTRAINT EXISTS T COULD
WELL BE MUCH MORE, INCLUDING A
1.6 TRILLION-DOLLAR CHILD TAX
CREDIT EXPANSION WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE PARENT WITH KIDS WELL
OVER $100 BILLION A YEAR WITH NO
WORK REQUIREMENTS.
THAT’S RIGHT, MORE WELFARE
WITHOUT WORK.
WHICH HAS BECOME THE RADICAL
DEMOCRATIC BATTLE CRY.
THEN THERE IS MORE COVID MONEY
AND UKRAINIAN AID AND MAYBE SOME
TAX EXTENDERS, ALL IN ACCORDING
TO "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL"
EDITORIAL.
NON-DEFENSE SPENDING WOULD RISE
ANOTHER 10% ON TOP OF LAST
YEAR’S 7%.
AND DEFEND SPENDING WOULD
INCREASE NEARLY 10% ON TOP OF
LAST YEAR’S 6%.
THIS IS NOT RESTRAINT.
THIS WILL NOT RESTRAIN
INFLATION.
THIS WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY TAX
AND REGULATORY SUPPLY SIDE
INCENTIVES BY REDUCING OF
CENTRALLY PLANNED BIG
GOVERNMENT, THE RUMOR IS
REPUBLICANS IN THE SENATE ARE
GOING TO GO ALONG WITH THIS
SPENDING SPREE.
RUMOR IS THE GOP SENATE
LEADERSHIP WILL MAKE A DEAL ON A
SO-CALLED OMNIBUS SPENDING BILL
THIS IS THE AT THE HEART OF THE
INFLATIONARY FISCAL BREAK DOWN
WE’VE EXPERIENCED IN RECENT
YEARS.
FOUR PEOPLE WILL GATHER IN A
ROOM AND MAKE A DEAL COVERING A
COUPLE THOUSAND PAGES, MAYBE A
COUPLE OF TRILLION DOLLARS IN
NEW SPENDING AND NO ONE WILL
KNOW WHAT’S REALLY IN THAT
PACKAGE UNTIL IT IS VOTED ON AND
THEN PRINTED UP AND EVEN THEN IT
WILL TAKE MONTHS IF NOT YEARS TO
KNOW WHAT’S THERE AND THERE WILL
NEVER BE ANY TRUE OVERSIGHT, OR
MONITORING OF HOW THE TAXPAYERS
MONEY IS BEING SQUANDERED BY A
SMALL, SELFISH CADRE OF LEADERS
WHO HAVE VERY HIM INTERESTS FOR
THE PUBLIC WELL BEING AND
ECONOMIC PROSPERITY.
THERE IS NO BUDGET RESOLUTION
FOR THE NEXT YEAR.
THERE ARE NO COMMITTEE MEETINGS
FOR THE 12 APPROPRIATIONS BILLS.
NO EXPERT WITNESSES TO DEBATE
THE MERITS OF THE POLICIES OR
THE SPENDING LEVELS.
IN OTHER WORDS, NO REGULAR
ORDER.
AND THE DEMOCRATS WITH
REPUBLICAN COOPERATION ARE GOING
TO TRY TO GET THIS DONE IN THE
LAME-DUCK SESSION BEFORE THE
PUBLIC CAN WAKE UP TO THE FISCAL
DAMAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR YET
MORE INFLATION, MORE SINKING
REAL WAGES, HIGHER GROCERY AND
ENERGY BILLS AND A DEEPER
RECESSION.
THIS IS NO WAY TO CONDUCT
ECONOMIC POLICY.
THERE IS A 6 TRILLION-DOLLAR
FEDERAL BUDGET AND IT JUST KEEPS
GROWING.
IT IS TIME SOMEBODY, SOMEBODY,
PRESUMABLY REPUBLICANS PUT AN
END TO THIS FISCAL INSANITY AND
RETURN TO PROPER POLICY AND
BUDGET ORIENTED PROCESSES.
I MEAN THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM,
FOLKS.
I WANT TO WARN YOU ABOUT THAT.
HATS OFF TO THE JOURNAL’S HE
HAD.
IT IS SOMETHING WE TALKED ABOUT