geoff: Abortion, guns, and
democracy.
Three big issues that have
reached a fever pitch in recent
days, which brings us to
politics Monday.
As many of you in our loyal
audience have noted, we hit
pause on this segment at the
start of the year, but as the
2024 campaign begins to heat up,
we decided it's time to return
to it with our friends, Amy
Walter of the cook political
report with Amy Walter, and
Tamara Keith of NPR.
It is great to see you both.
Amy, let's start with the
political impact of abortion
restrictions.
Republican senator Lindsey
graham yesterday was asked
whether the GOP's position on
abortion is costing the
Republican party after a string
of electoral defeats.
>> We can win this issue at the
ballot box if we show up with
reasonable positions.
If we have our head in the sand,
we're going to lose.
Geoff: So, do Republicans have
reason to be concerned about a
potential abortion ban backlash?
Amy: That is a very good
question.
I reached out to a Republican
strategist who does a lot of
work in swing states asking the
same sort of question.
What do you think this means?
The reply was a big sigh.
Because as we learned from 2022,
the issue is not so much about
abortion, about the medical
procedure.
One Democrat said to me abortion
was not the issue as much as
Dobbs was the issue.
In other words, it was the
overturning of a reit -- of a
right that people felt was
enshrined, something that was
around for 50 years.
Even Republicans acknowledge
this turned off voters, the
sense that the rug could be
pulled out from under them at
any moment from unelected
judges.
So the fda decision, which has
been in effect for 20 years,
getting basically pulled out
from under women because of the
decision of one judge, fits into
that same narrative.
So when you talk to Republican
strategists who have to do this
work in spring -- in swing
states, they acknowledge this is
a challenge.
But the reason for the big sigh
is because the legislators and
the judges doing this work, they
are not in swing states and not
accountable to the kind of
voters that determine who wins
and loses in these battleground
areas.
Geoff: On that point, you were
just in Wisconsin and we saw how
abortion access, reproductive
rights was a decisive issue in
that key supreme court,
Wisconsin supreme court
election, where the liberal won.
What did you hear?
Tamara: Admittedly I was at uw
Madison, so this is a liberal
campus where young people were
voting.
But I was there, they were
lining up to early vote.
And I was talking to people
coming away from voting, what
these young people said -- and
it was not just the girls, it
was young men as well -- said
that the reason they were driven
there to vote, abortion, the
issue of abortion.
It was a mobilizing issue for
them.
And there in Wisconsin it was a
particularly live issue, because
like many states around the
country there was a trigger law.
And so when Dobbs happened, then
a state law that dated back to
1849 banning abortion was
triggered.
And so something was taken away,
as Amy says.
And that is extremely motivating
for voters.
And not just liberal voters.
So, I think that what you saw
there in the midterms, what you
saw from Democrats in swing
areas saying, no, we are going
to run on this, this is an
issue.
You saw someone like Nancy mays,
a Republican from south
Carolina, congresswoman, saying
maybe the federal government,
the fda should ignore this
ruling in Texas.
She is responding to her voters,
which are swing district voters,
who overwhelmingly support some
abortion access.
Geoff: For decades, Republicans
have talked about abortion
because it was a rallying cry, a
way for them to identify with a
culturally conservative base.
Now that it is motivating voters
against the GOP, can Republicans
change the subject?
Amy: That is what many of them
tried to do in 2022, to say the
economy is the most important
issue.
Even for voters who care about
abortion, it is secondary
because inflation is their top
issue.
But what we found in the
election is yes, the economy is
a very important issue, but
abortion is right behind it, or
in some cases that we found in
postelection voting -- polling,
--
you can both be upset about the
economy and abortion.
The one thing I will point out
is the issue did not cut one way
in every single state.
In a state like Georgia, where
the governor passed a six-week
band, signed a six-week ban, he
succeeded in winning election,
which is senator graham's point.
He won in part because he was
talking about other things.
He did not come across as
unreasonable to voters.
I think another reason why he
might not have come across as
unreasonable to many swing
voters is he also did something
else, which is he did not get
endorsed by Donald Trump, and in
fact he defeated Donald Trump's
henpecked primary opponent.
So, in some ways, it was not
just that they were antiabortion
and did not have exceptions.
It is also that many of them had
been endorsed by Donald Trump,
and those two together I think
were really problematic for
swing voters.
Geoff: Let's talk about what is
happening in Tennessee, because
Tennessee represented Justin
Jones has been reinstated by
unanimous vote by the metro
Nashville council.
Justin Pearson could be
reinstated as early as tomorrow,
he represents Memphis.
Tam, the white house has really
aligned itself with this story,
because there are so many themes
and issues, advocating for gun
safety, preserving small D
democratic norms.
There was also a racial element
to this, in that the two
Democrats who were ousted were
African-American and the one who
was not expelled was a white
woman.
Take us behind the white house
strategy to go all in on
Tennessee.
Tamara: It is also a guns issue,
and that is very important to
them.
This white house is leaning in a
lot on the matter of guns.
There was just another mass
shooting today.
And what they saw in Tennessee
was a lack of due process for
lawmakers who were trying to
just get gun control measures a
hearing.
Just trying to get some voice
put to what the protesters were
shouting from the rafters.
And so, the white house does not
really see a downside in leaning
in on this.
Interestingly, the president's
statement did not even mention
the racial element, although it
became quite apparent as the
night went on that there was
also this racial element, which
is not necessarily something the
white house would shy away from.
Geoff:a my, will gun safety
issues become a decisive factor
in elections?
Amy: It is interesting the vice
president with the Tennessee,
the white house talking about
the issue.
This is not just aimed at
Tennessee, it is a national
issue aimed at the kind of
voters that Republicans have
been bleeding in the era of
trump.
Those suburban voters in and
around fast-growing cities like
Nashville or Atlanta, etc.,
Phoenix.
So, I think with the combination
of younger voters, suburban
voters, those voters that
Republicans are hoping to get
back, this is just one more
issue that makes it harder for
them to bring them back into the
fold.
Geoff: Amy Walter and Tamera
Keith, great to have you back
and look forward to seeing you
more on Mondays.
♪♪