DONALD TRUMP’S APPROVAL
RATINGS -- LET ME SHOW YOU THIS,
JAKE, AND WE’LL PASS IT AROUND.
IN MICHIGAN, DONALD TRUMP’S
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP WITH JOE
BIDEN SHOWS THAT JOE BIDEN IS
NOW WELL AHEAD OF HIM IN DOUBLE
DIGITS IN MICHIGAN.
AND JAKE, WE’RE HEARING -- AND I
AM NOT EXACTLY SURE WHY -- MAYBE
YOU CAN EXPLAIN TO US -- BIDEN
HAD 55%-39% IN MICHIGAN.
THE "DETROIT FREE PRESS" SAID
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOVEMENT,
THE NET FOR MOVEMENT IN BIDEN’S
DIRECTION IS BECAUSE OF WHAT
HAPPENED ON JUNE 1st.
PEOPLE SEEMED TO BE REPULSED BY
THAT.
BUT WHY IS BIDEN DOING SO WELL
IN ALL OF THE SWING STATES OR IN
MOST OF THE SWING STATES RIGHT
NOW?
BECAUSE YOU LOOK AT POLLS, AND
IT USED TO BE THAT THE SWING
STATES WERE REALLY TIGHT AND
CLOSE, EVEN IF BIDEN WERE UP BY
EIGHT OR NINE POINTS NATIONALLY,
BUT NOW WE’RE SEEING MORE AND
MORE POLLS THAT ARE SAYING BIDEN
NOT ONLY HAS A DOUBLE-DIGIT
LEAD, BUT HE’S ALSO DOING VERY
WELL IN STATES LIKE WISCONSIN,
MICHIGAN, FLORIDA, PENNSYLVANIA,
AND THINGS ARE EVEN GETTING
TIGHT.
BIDEN’S EVEN AHEAD IN SOME POLLS
IN SWING STATES LIKE OHIO AND
IOWA.
WHAT’S GOING ON THERE?
>> WELL, I MEAN, YOU COULD
CHOOSE ANY NUMBER OF THE
REASONS.
I MEAN, THE PRESIDENT SEEMS TO
INJECT HIMSELF INTO
CONTROVERSIES WITHOUT MUCH LOGIC
OR REASON BEHIND IT.
AND I AGREE, THIS IS NOT JUST
MICHIGAN, AS YOU JUST NOTED.
IT’S OHIO.
IT’S IOWA, WHERE THE VICE
PRESIDENT VISITED YESTERDAY IN A
"COMMON
"DES MOINES REGISTER" POLL.
IT SHOWED A TIGHT RACE IN A
STATE THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY POPULAR IN, A
TIGHT SENATE RACE.
ARIZONA, TOO.
AND IF YOU LOOK ACROSS THE MAP,
AGAIN, THESE ARE POLLS 139 DAYS
BEFORE THE ELECTION.
BUT IF YOU LOOK ACROSS THE MAP,
START PUTTING STATES LIKE
ARIZONA, IOWA IN PLAY, MICHIGAN
IN PLAY, THAT SHUTS OFF A HUGE,
HUGE PATHWAY FOR THE PRESIDENT
FOR RE-ELECTION.
AND IT CALLS INTO QUESTION WHY
HE’S NOT DOING THINGS THAT ARE
BROADLY POPULAR WITH THE BASE.
AND AGAIN, WE COULD -- I’M NOT
THE PRESIDENT’S POLITICAL
STRATEGIST, AND I’VE TRIED TO
UNDERSTAND FOR YEARS WHY HE HAS
NOT DONE THINGS THAT ARE CLEARLY
QUITE POPULAR WITH THE BROAD
BRUSH OF THE AMERICAN PUBLIC,
BUT HE CONTINUES TO DO THINGS
LIKE INJECT HIMSELF INTO
CONTROVERSIES -- THE MILITARY
PATROLLING THE STREETS, NOT
GETTING RID OF CONFEDERATE NAMED
BASES.
I MEAN, THESE ARE THINGS THAT
EVEN ON CAPITOL HILL WITH SOME
OF THE MOST CONSERVATIVE MEMBERS
OF CONGRESS AND MEMBERS OF THE
SENATE, THESE ARE THINGS THAT
ARE NO-BRAINERS FOR PEOPLE WHO
ARE PRACTICED POLITICIANS THAT
THE PRESIDENT JUST DOESN’T
REALLY HAVE THE APPETITE TO GET
HIS ARMS AROUND.
>> SO, MICHAEL STEELE, YOU LOOK
AT THOSE NUMBERS.
I THINK MOST PEOPLE IN MICHIGAN
THINK THAT’S A BIGGER SPREAD
THAN, OBVIOUSLY, WE’LL SEE, 16
POINTS.
BUT IN THIS MOMENT IN TIME, THE
PRESIDENT IS STRUGGLING IN THE
PLACES WHERE HE WON BY JUST A
HAIR.
YOU CAN WIN, ADD MICHIGAN INTO
THAT CONVERSATION, YOU CAN ADD
WISCONSIN INTO THAT
CONVERSATION.
AND ALSO PLACES NOW WHERE HE’S
HAVING TO PLAY DEFENSE, PLACES
LIKE TEXAS THROUGH GEORGIA AND
ARIZONA AND OTHER PLACES WHERE
HE’S GOING TO HAVE TO SPEND TIME
AND MONEY TO LOCK DOWN STATES
HE’S ALREADY WON.
FORGET ABOUT WINNING NEW STATES.
IF IT’S NOT A BIG MYSTERY ABOUT
WHERE WE ARE WHERE WE ARE.
IT’S HIS HANDLING OF THIS
MOMENT, THIS RACIAL JUSTICE
MOMENT, BUT ALSO HIS HANDLING
FOR THE LAST FOUR MONTHS OF THE
PANDEMIC, AS PEOPLE SEE WHAT’S
ACTUALLY HAPPENING IN THEIR
COMMUNITIES, IN THEIR HOSPITALS,
IN THEIR SCHOOLS, IN THEIR
WORKPLACES.
THIS THING IS REAL, AND AS WE’VE
BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS MORNING,
THE PRESIDENT IS TRYING TO TURN
THE PAGE ON SOMETHING THAT VERY
MUCH REMAINS ON THIS PAGE FOR
THE COUNTRY.
>> EXACTLY RIGHT, WILLIE.
AND THE ONLY REPRIEVE FOR THE
PRESIDENT FROM THESE NUMBERS IS
THE FACT THAT IT’S JUNE.
SO YOU KNOW, WE ARE OUTSIDE OF
THAT SPACE WHERE IT BECOMES
CRITICAL, WHICH, OF COURSE, IS
LABOR DAY, WHICH CHANGES THE
ENTIRE DYNAMIC OF ANY CAMPAIGN,
ESPECIALLY A PRESIDENTIAL
CAMPAIGN.
YOU STILL HAVE CONVENTIONS TO GO
THROUGH.
YOU STILL HAVE FOLKS SORT OF
CHECKING OUT FOR THE SUMMER AND
ALL OF THAT.
SO, THAT GIVES THE PRESIDENT
SOME SPACE TO BEGIN TO REORIENT
HIS SHIP OF STATE, IF YOU WILL,
REGARDING HIS CAMPAIGN.
BUT TO THE POINT THAT JAKE JUST
MADE, THE REALITY OF IT IS
THAT’S NOT WHAT DONALD TRUMP HAS
BEEN KNOWN TO DO.
HE PLAYS TO THE LOWEST COMMON
DENOMINATOR.
HE PLAYS TO HIS BASE BECAUSE HE
FEELS THAT AS LONG AS HE HAS
THAT, IF HE’S GOT THOSE WHITE
MEN OVER 50 LOCKED IN, AND THE
MORE THEY’RE LOCKED IN, THE
STRONGER HE FEELS HE IS, THE
BETTER OFF HE’LL BE LONGER TERM.
THE PROBLEM THERE IS HE’S GOT
THIS TRIFECTA THAT’S HIT HIM
UPSIDE THE HEAD LIKE A BRICK.
COVID-19.
DOWNTURN IN THE ECONOMY.
AND NOW RACIAL TENSION ACROSS
THE COUNTRY.
ON EACH OF THOSE THREE FRONTS,
HE IS LOSING GROUND WITH THE
VERY PEOPLE HE CONSIDERS HIS
BASE.
HE LIKES TO TOUT JUST RECENTLY
IN A TWEET, OH, 96% OF
REPUBLICANS SUPPORT ME.
UH, NO, THEY DON’T.
THE NUMBER’S ACTUALLY 84%.
HE’S LOSING AMONG INDEPENDENTS.
HE’S LOSING SOME OF THAT BASE.
SO WHAT HIS CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN
TRYING TO DO IS TO GET HIM TO
REORIENT TO THAT TRUTH.
AND THEN THAT’S, AGAIN, WHY
THEY’RE DOING THE RALLIES THIS
WEEKEND, TO GET THAT MOMENTUM
HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
FOR THE PRESIDENT.
BUT THIS IS GOING TO BE A SLOG
FOR HIM BECAUSE OF HOW TRUMP HAS
APPROACHED THOSE THREE BIG
ISSUES SO FAR.
>> SO, JONATHAN LAMIRE, WE’RE
GOING TO CONTINUE TO PRETEND
THAT THIS WHITE HOUSE MAY WORK
LIKE A REGULAR WHITE HOUSE WHEN
IT COMES TO FACING RE-ELECTION.
I’LL ASK THE QUESTION.
OBVIOUSLY, THEY DO NOT.
BUT AGAIN, IT JUST DEFIES LOGIC.
EVERY DAY THE PRESIDENT’S
NUMBERS CONTINUE TO GO DOWN.
AND I’M JUST WONDERING IF, WHEN
HE HAD BRIEF SPASMS OF LUCIDITY
AT THE END OF THE 2016 CAMPAIGN
AND WENT QUIET, I’M WONDERING IF
THERE’S A RESPONSE COMING FROM
THE TRUMP WHITE HOUSE ON POLLING
NUMBERS?
39% AT GALLUP AND 39% IN OTHER
POLLS.
I THINK MORNING CONSULT THIS
MORNING IS 40%?
CORRECT ME IF I’M WRONG, JAKE.
HE’S DOWN 16 PERCENTAGE POINTS
IN MICHIGAN.
THE TRUMP WHITE HOUSE WAS
PLANNING TO HAVE 15% TO 20% OF
BLACK VOTERS ON THEIR SIDE IN
2020, WHICH WOULD BE CERTAINLY A
RECORD SINCE 19 -- I WOULD GUESS
1960 WITH NIXON, WHEN HE HAD 33%
OF BLACK VOTERS.
BUT HE’S LOSING BLACK VOTERS
LEFT AND RIGHT.
HE’S LOSING WORKING-CLASS, WHITE
WOMEN IN THE INDUSTRIAL MIDWEST
OVERWHELMINGLY.
HE’S LOSING INDEPENDENTS
OVERWHELMINGLY.
OF COURSE, HE’S ALREADY LOST
SUBURBAN WOMEN.
HE’S LOSING WOMEN BY RECORD
NUMBERS.
SO, THAT IS A REALITY FACING
DONALD TRUMP.
THAT IS A REALITY FACING HIS
CAMPAIGN.
AND I WILL ASK THE QUESTION THAT
I ASK ALL THE TIME -- WHAT ARE
THEY GOING TO DO TO STEM THE
TIDE?
DO THEY PRETEND THAT THEY HAVE A
PLAN TO STOP JUST DRILLING DOWN
ON THIS BASE THAT IS NOW DOWN TO
39% AND GETTING TO THE 46%, 47%,
48% THAT THEY NEED TO BE
RE-ELECTED?
>> YOU’RE RIGHT, JOE, IN
REMEMBERING THAT REALLY THE ONLY
TIME WE’VE SEEN THE PRESIDENT BE
REALLY DISCIPLINED AND STAY ON
MESSAGE, OR IN THAT CASE, QUIET,
WAS THAT LAST WEEK OR SO OF THE
2016 CAMPAIGN.
THERE HAVE BEEN PEOPLE AROUND
HIM WHO HAVE URGED A SIMILAR
TACTIC NOW, BUT WE JUST HAVE TO
LOOK AT YESTERDAY’S EVENT IN THE
ROSE GARDEN TO SAY THAT THAT’S
NOT WORKING.
THE PRESIDENT STAYED ON SCRIPT
FOR A LITTLE WHILE, TALKED ABOUT
THE EXECUTIVE ORDER, EXTOLLED
SOME OF THE GOOD THINGS THAT
WERE IN IT, THEN IMMEDIATELY
ABANDONED HIS NOTES AND ATTACKED
THE MEDIA AND DEMOCRATS, MAKING
CLAIMS ABOUT HOW MUCH HE HAD
DONE FOR AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTERS
THAT JUST DON’T STAND UP.
THE PRESIDENT -- THEY KNOW, THE
PEOPLE AROUND HIM, HIS INNER
CIRCLE, THERE IS CONCERN.
THEY KNOW THAT THEY’RE DOWN.
AND WE’VE TALKED ABOUT THIS SHOW
QUITE A BIT ABOUT HOW MICHIGAN
THEY FEEL LIKE IS ALMOST OUT OF
REACH, AND THIS NEW POLL SORT OF
EMPHASIZES THAT.
BUT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF OTHER
PLACES WHERE THERE ARE RED
ALERTS GOING OFF.
ALARM BELLS ARE SOUNDING.
PLACES LIKE IOWA AND OHIO,
GEORGIA AND TEXAS, WHERE, YES, I
THINK THEY STILL FEEL CONFIDENT
THEY WILL WIN, BUT THEY’RE
SUDDENLY NOW CONCERNED THEY’RE
GOING TO HAVE TO DEVOTE A LOT OF
TIME, ENERGY, AND RESOURCES TO
HANG ON TO STATES THAT A FEW
MONTHS AGO THEY THOUGHT WERE
SAFELY IN THEIR COLUMN.
AND REFLEXIVELY, THE PRESIDENT
REALLY ONLY HAS A FEW MOVES
HERE, JOE.
HE’S NEVER SHOWN THE ABILITY TO
GROW HIS BASE OF SUPPORT, TO
REACH OUT TO NEW VOTERS.
HE JUST DOUBLES DOWN, AGAIN, ON
THAT BEDROCK CORE SUPPORTERS,
WHO AS YOU NOTE, MAY BE
SHRINKING, FINALLY.
THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY
CONTROVERSIES THAT HAVE STUCK TO
THIS PRESIDENT.
WE WROTE THIS MORNING IN THE
"ASSOCIATED PRESS," MOST OF
THEM, HE HAS AN UNCANNY ABILITY
TO SHAKE OFF THESE BAD
HEADLINES.
A FEW HAVE.
CHARLOTTESVILLE, HELSINKI,
IMAGES OF THE CHILDREN AT THE
AGES AT THE MEXICAN BORDER.
BUT LAFAYETTE SQUARE AND HIS
HANDLING OF THAT, USING FEDERAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT TO CLEAR
PEACEFUL PROTESTERS, IS REALLY
RESONATING, AND THE CAMPAIGN IS
TRACKING WORRISOME POLLING THAT
SHOWS THAT’S COST HIM SUPPORT
AMONG SOME REPUBLICANS, AMONG
SOME INDEPENDENTS.
AND RIGHT NOW, THE ONLY ANSWER
THIS CAMPAIGN HAS IS TO TRY TO
LEAN INTO THE ECONOMY,
SUGGESTING THAT IF THE ECONOMY
BOUNCES BACK, IT’S A RISING TIDE
THAT WILL LIFT ALL BOATS.
THAT’S WHAT THEY’RE BETTING ON.
BUT AS WE SEE, THE PANDEMIC
COMES BACK, WE’RE ALREADY SEEING