The war in Ukraine has been full of eye-catching and important storylines.
From the military-industrial production of countries to the alliances emerging due to
this war. From the threat of a nuclear strike to long-term military strategies. But just like
in any war, the key battles fought in this war draw the most attention of the public.
The next key battle of this war is the battle of Chasiv Yar, a town about the existence of
which many people probably were not aware until recently. In this video, we will explain what
is at stake in the battle of Chasiv Yar and why it may have a major impact on the Ukraine war.
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WHAT IS CHASIV YAR? Let’s start with the
basics. Chasiv Yar is a small town in the Bakhmut raion of Donetsk Oblast of
Ukraine. It is situated 10 kilometers west of Bakhmut. Chasiv Yar had a pre-war population
of some 12k people. Many Chasiv Yar residents were employed in enterprises producing reinforced
concrete products and mining fire clay resistant to high temperatures. There is a canal going
through the eastern edge of the town, which hosts numerous water bodies and lies on an elevation.
HOW DID RUSSIA REACH CHASIV YAR? It took a while before the Russian
invasion was really felt in Chasiv Yar, which at the time was quite far from the
frontline. The initial Russian offensive in Donbas was mostly focused on Luhansk oblast,
therefore Chasiv Yar remained in relative safety for months. But once Russians increased the
pace of strikes and bombings, Chasiv Yar became a target as well. On 9 July 2022, Russians launched
Uragan missiles on residential buildings in the town, killing at least 48 people. Chasiv Yar has
been shelled and bombed on several occasions after that and according to the town’s mayor,
Serhiy Chaus, “there is not a single intact building left”. As a result, only a few
hundred civilians still remain in Chasiv Yar. But the real threat of a ground assault on
Chasiv Yar emerged after the fall of Bakhmut in May 2023. The Ukrainian summer counteroffensive of
2023 pushed back the Russians from the flanks of the Bakhmut sector to some extent, but they have
regained much of it ever since they went back on the offensive in September 2023. After completing
the capture of Avdiivka following the heaviest battles and very painful losses, Russia came one
step closer to achieving its immediate political goal in this war - the capture of Donbas. Hence,
their next goal - Chasiv Yar. Since regaining strategic momentum on the battlefield,
while Ukraine has been struggling with ammunition shortages, Russia has advanced on Chasiv Yar from
three directions. In the north, they captured Bohdanivka in April, attacking towards Kalynivka
as we speak. In the central axis, there are conflicting reports about the control
over Ivanivske, but at the very least, even if the Russians have not captured it, they have
bypassed it from the north to threaten the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar. The Russian army has also
bypassed Ivanivske from the south, reaching the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas channel on this axis.
BATTLE SO FAR The Russian advance
on Chasiv Yar and the initial phase of the battle makes their plan quite obvious. And very similar
to the tactic used during the battle of Bakhmut. The Russian army plans to attack the town from the
north with the primary goal of cutting the supply line in Kalynivka and from the south with the same
purpose. This pincer movement is intended to be completed by a frontal assault on Chasiv Yar, for
which Russians would have to cross the canal. The Russian military correspondent Kots said,
"To enter, it is necessary to first level the flanks and encircle the city,
providing several entry points from different directions at once… This is necessary in order
to stretch the enemy's defence forces in the city and to force them to constantly move in
different directions under our constant fire." After shelling Chasiv Yar and conducting
airstrikes on Ukrainian positions, which included ODAB-1500 thermobaric bombs,
reportedly used for the first time since the start of the war, Russians made their
first ground assault on April 4. The 98th Guards Airborne Division attacked the Kanal microdistrict
on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar and claimed to have established positions there. For Ukraine,
the concerning fact is that based on the available footage of the Russian assault,
Russian forces did not face any minefields on their approach to the Ukrainian positions,
which obviously made their advance easier. And even though, as usual,
the advancing Russian units lost many pieces of equipment, in this case, 19 vehicles out of 32,
according to Ukrainian sources, the Russian command feels like they can afford these losses
at this point. Remember, their production rates allow them to lose equipment in exchange for
territorial advances. The Kremlin is content with this tradeoff, at least for the time
being. Another concerning development was the deployment of 4 Su-25 fighters in this assault,
which apparently operated quite freely during the battle. This indicates that Ukraine lacks
short-range air defense and mobile anti-aircraft weapons to deny air superiority over the skies of
Chasiv Yar. The long-delayed arrival of the US military aid might help in this regard.
In the following days, the Ukrainian command, including the commander-in-chief Syrskyi,
acknowledged a complicated situation in the Chasiv Yar sector, but denied that Russians had gained
a foothold inside the town. Russians attempted another assault moving from the south of Ivanivske
on April 10 but were repelled by the Ukrainian artillery and FPV drones. Syrskyi confirmed
that Chasiv Yar defenders have been reinforced with ammunition, drones and electronic warfare
equipment, recognizing the threat of a Russian breakthrough there. The last Russian attempt
to storm the Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar was conducted on April 22, but has been
repelled by the Ukrainian army, according to the spokesperson of the Khortytsia Group of Forces,
Nazar Voloshyn. They have been regularly shelling Ukrainian positions with artillery and FAB glide
bombs, very likely preparing for another round of attacks. Russians are also reportedly bringing
reinforcements and have 20k-25k men gathered in this sector. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are solidifying
their defences, building fortifications to withstand the Russian onslaught. Russian sources
also report that Ukrainians have laid mines on the eastern side of the Kanal microdistrict.
Even though Russians enjoy a significant firepower and manpower advantage at this point
of the battle, it is not going to be a walk in the park for them. The canal creates an obstacle for
mechanized assaults. If Russians managed to break through the canal and create a bridgehead on its
western shore, they would have to defeat Ukrainian defences solidified by fortifications and several
layers of trenches. Beyond that, Chasiv Yar has small water bodies, some industrial areas
and fields, all working to the advantage of the defending side. There are also forests in Chasiv
Yar, which can work for both sides. In some of the previous battles, Russians have used forests
to their advantage by managing to conceal the movement of small infantry units. But Ukraine's
biggest advantage is that Chasiv Yar is situated on an elevation, making it more defensible.
STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE BATTLE This brings us to the very reason that makes
the battle of Chasiv Yar so important. Ukraine’s 5th Assault Brigade has referred to Chasiv Yar as
the door to the rest of Donetsk Oblast. When you control Chasiv Yar, you control the most dominant
elevation in the area and highways, leading to the so-called fortress cities of Donbas.
H20 goes through Konstyantinivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk. The Ukrainian army
spokesperson Voloshyn has acknowledged this: “If the Russian occupiers manage to capture
this city, they will have the opportunity to launch an offensive on Kostiantynivka,
Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk… These cities are the last stronghold of the Donetsk region,
which is under the control of Ukraine…This is the dominant height in the region,
and its control will allow the Russian invaders, if they achieve it, to significantly simplify
the advance in the direction of Kostiantynivka and the direction of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.”
CONCLUSION By now,
it is an open secret that Putin sees the capture of Donbas as the minimum goal of
his invasion. Syrksyi has claimed that Putin wants to see Chasiv Yar occupied by May 9,
the day on which Russia celebrates the victory in the Great Patriotic War. But while this deadline,
if it exists at all, seems very optimistic for the Russians, they are certainly pushing to take this
key town before the American military aid finally reaches Ukrainian defenders. The Ukrainian army
will dig deep to repel the Russian assaults. Losing Chasiv Yar threatens the loss of the
rest of Donbas, which Ukraine desperately needs to avoid. Once again, we find ourselves watching yet
another crucial chapter of the war in Ukraine - the Battle of Chasiv Yar, which may become
another success of the Russian army in 2024, or yet another story of fierce Ukrainian defense,
but this time accompanied by a victory. We will talk about the war in Ukraine
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