NEWS, PUT IT BACKWARDS, RIGHT
NOW YOU'RE SEEING ALL UP ARROWS.
ADAM: NICOLE PETALLIDES AT NYSE.
WE'LL GO TO PEOPLE IN THE KNOW.
THE PANEL TODAY, JAMES FREEMAN
FROM THE "WALL STREET JOURNAL,"
VICE PRESIDENT OF VISION FOUR
FUND DISTRIBUTORS.
HEATHER, LET ME START WITH YOU.
WHAT DO YOU EXPLAIN FOR THE DOW
BEING UP TRIPLE DIGITS?
IS IT A TAKE BY INVESTORS
PERHAPS THIS JOBS REPORT
INDICATES TO THEM THAT THE
FEDERAL RESERVE WILL OR WON'T
RAISE INTEREST RATES OR IS IT
SOMETHING ELSE?
>> ABSOLUTELY IT IS THE JOBS
FROM 4% FROM 3.8%, WHEN YOU DIG
A LITTLE DEEPER, I'M EXCITED.
HEY, I WANT TO GO GET A JOB.
OKAY IF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
GOES UP, MORE PEOPLE ARE OUT
THERE LOOKING FOR WORK.
ESTIMATES FOR THE MARKETS ARE
EXPECTED TO GROW OVER 4% ACROSS
THE BOARD.
EARNINGS ARE DOING VERY WELL.
I EXPECT MANY COMPANIES TO
THE TAX CUTS, STILL GOING TO
TAKE EFFECT.
ADAM: JAMES, NOBODY IS GOING TO
THINK THAT IT'S A BAD THING
PEOPLE ARE COMING BACK INTO THE
WORKFORCE.
>> RIGHT.
ADAM: IN THE FED MINUTES, THEY
SAY THERE IS SLACK AND PLENTY OF
ROOM FOR PEOPLE ON THE SIDELINES
TO COME BACK IN BUT LABOR FORCE
PARTICIPATION IS THREE-DECADE
LOW.
>> YOU HAVE ROOM TO GROW.
GOOD DAY FOR PEOPLE LOOKING FOR
WORK.
BAD DAY FOR PEOPLE SAYING WE HIT
A LIMIT.
THAT WE'RE AT FULL EMPLOYMENT.
WE'RE AT END OF AN EXPANSION
CYCLE.
THINGS CAN'T REALLY GET BETTER.
MAYBE WE'RE SAYING IN THE NEW
NORMAL A FEW YEARS AGO.
THESE ARE ALL GOOD SIGNS WE'RE
SEE YOU NOW IN THE ECONOMY THAT
THOSE LIMITS ARE NOT THERE.
MORE PEOPLE CAN JOIN THE
WORKFORCE.
THE ECONOMY CAN GROW FASTER.
BROADER MEASUREMENT OF
UNEMPLOYMENT.
ADAM: U6 HAS BEEN KIND OF FLAT
FOR SEVERAL READS.
>> YES BUT THERE IS SIGN, MORE
PEOPLE, IF GIVEN INCENTIVE,
ENCOURAGEMENT WILL COME BACK
INTO THE MARKET.
THE QUIT RATE.
PEOPLE ARE CONFIDENT QUITTING
JOBS NOW BECAUSE THEY THINK THEY
CAN GET ANOTHER ONE.
>> I'M NOT QUITTING.
ADAM: I WANT TO GET DEIRDRE INTO
FACTOR, PEOPLE ARE GETTING
AVERAGE 30% INCREASE IN PAY, FOR
PEOPLE STAYING IN JOBS, WAGE
WOULD EXPECT.
>> NOT THAT WE WANT TO
COMPLETELY NITPICK WHAT
ECONOMISTS FORECAST, MOST WERE
LOOKING FOR 2.8%.
TO YOUR POINT, WAGE GROWTH IS
VERY STUBBORN, UNLESS PEOPLE ARE
ACTUALLY JUMPING.
I KNOW JAMES, YOUR COLLEAGUES
WROTE THAT FANTASTIC PIECE IN
THE "WALL STREET JOURNAL"
YESTERDAY.
>> THANKS FOR THAT.
>> CALLED THE QUITTERS ARE
GETTING AHEAD.
WHAT YOU TALK ABOUT, ADAM, GET A
BETTER RAISE, YOU HAVE TO MOVE
SHOPS.
ADAM: YOU HAVE TO QUIT.
>> OVERALL 93rd CONSECUTIVE
MONTH OF JOBS BEING ADDED TO THE
U.S. ECONOMY.
THIS IS THE LONGEST STREAK ON
RECORD.
IF YOU LOOK AT FED FUND RATE,
SEEMS LIKE THE FED TOOK THE DATA
AS NEUTRAL.
WE'LL STILL RAISE RATES TWO MORE
TIMES, WHICH FOLLOWS WHAT MARKET
WATCHERS EXPECTED SO TO ME THAT
IS A STEADY.
THE WILD CARD TO ME IS THE
TRIFECTA, COMBINATION OF FED
RAISING RATES EVEN IF IT IS WELL
TELEGRAPHED, ENERGY PRICES,
UNKNOWN, THE X-FACTOR, WHAT THE
TARIFFS MAY OR MAY NOT DO, THIS
TARIFF TIFF IF NOT WAR WE'RE
HAVING RIGHT NOW.
THAT IS THE FORMULA I'M
FOLLOWING IN THOSE THREE MOVING
PARTS.
ADAM: HEATHER, PICK UP ON WHAT
DEIRDRE IS SAYING.
NEIL: I WOULD TAKE A READ, I'M
NOT A FEDEX PERT, THE FACT THAT
INFLATION IS RISING BUT WE'RE
NOT, AS THEY SAID IN THE PINS.
THAT WE'RE NOT AT 2% TARGET.
THE FACT WAGE GROWTH
YEAR-OVER-YEAR IS NOT WHAT THE
WAGE SHOULD BE WOULDN'T WE
FIGURE THE DOT PLOT SAYS, FOUR
INCREASES THIS YEAR, MAYBE IT IS
JUST THREE?
>> WHY SOME ARE INVESTORS ARE
CALLING IT THE GOLDILOCKS
SCENARIO.
WE COULD HAVE THIS TYPE OF
REMAINS LOW ONE EMPLOYMENT AT
VERY LOW LEVELS.
SO THE FACT THAT THERE ISN'T
WAGE GROWTH, THE AVERAGE
AMERICAN WALKING ON MAIN STREET,
THAT IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR THEM,
ONLY 2.7% YEAR-OVER-YEAR, BUT
THAT'S GOOD NEWS FOR THE MARKETS
AND ECONOMY IN THE ENIF THE FED
ISN'T GOING TO RAISE RATES
SOONER THAN MAYBE THE MARKETS
CAN HANDLE.
ALTHOUGH I WOULD ARGUE THEY
SHOULD HAVE RAISED RATES A LONG
WANTED TO JUMP IN ON THAT.
I KEEP FOCUSING IN ON WAGES.
LEAST THINK MAKING MORE MONEY
REPUBLICAN OR GOOD TERM FOR A
LOOKING.
WITH JOB CREATION, GOOD
NOW, ALTHOUGH PRESIDENT TRUMP
OVERALL STILL LOW APPROVAL
RATINGS GENERALLY HISTORICALLY,
HE IS NOW AT MAJORITY OF THE
PEOPLE IN THE COUNTRY, ACCORDING
TO THE AVERAGE OF MOST POLLS WHO
AND IT SHOWS IN THE DATA.
YOU UNDERSTAND WHY THEY ARE MORE
OPTIMISTIC.
WHY THEY ARE STARTING TO THINK
THE U.S., ITS BEST DAYS ARE
STILL AHEAD, STARTING TO THINK
THAT WAY AGAIN.
ADAM: TO THAT POINT, DEIRDRE,
YOU BROUGHT UP THE TARIFF TIFF.
THE FARM COUNTRY.
>> NONE OF THESE COUNTRIES THAT
ARE ACTING SORT OF IN RESPONSE
TO WHAT WE HAVE DONE ARE STUPID,
RIGHT?
IT IS NOBODY'S FIRST RODEO.
YOU HAVE CHINA TO YOUR POINT
HITTING BACK AT SOYBEANS,
DEPENDING HOW YOU MEASURE,
14 BILLION-DOLLAR EXPORT CROP
FOR US.
TRUMP.
SO, THIS IS NOT CHINA'S FIRST GO
ROUND.
MEXICO IMPOSED YESTERDAY,
$3 BILLION WORTH OF TARIFFS
AGAINST AMERICAN GOODS.
THAT IS OBVIOUSLY STILL LESS
THAN THE EU 16000000000, -- E
ALL.
, 16 BILLION, WHAT THE STOCK
MARKET IS SHOWING US THAT THE
THE ONE'S I'M PERSONALLY AFRAID
OF, HEADLINES THAT MAY BE A
NEGOTIATING TACTIC, BUT
200 BILLION LEVELS, I THINK
THOSE ARE GAME CHANGING.
36 BILLION --
ADAM: HEATHER, YOU GET LAST
MORE IN NEW TARIFFS?
TARIFFS.
NON-TARIFF BARRIERS, OPEN
MARKETS AND OTHER THINGS, LIKE
STEALING INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY.
YOU WILL RUN OUT OF TARIFFS,
STUFF TO TAX, EVENTUALLY.
ADAM: ALL RIGHT.
YES.
ADAM: JAMES, DEIRDRE, HEATHER,
TALKING ABOUT ALL OF THIS,
DONALD TRUMP IS LIKE JOAN
CRAWFORD AT THE PEPSI BOARD