It has been more than three months since the much talked about and long-awaited Ukrainian
counteroffensive against Russian troops officially kicked off in 2023.
Since then, many critics point out that Ukrainian progress has been meager for such a long period
of time.
A village here, a town there...
At times the extreme slowness of the Ukrainians to break the Russian front lines has generated
doubts, questions and news stories like these:
(4 August 2023: Is Ukraine's counteroffensive failing?
Kyiv and its supporters worry about losing control of the narrative – NBC News)
(9 August 2023: A stalled offensive and a winter stalemate, for instance, would have
particular ramifications in the United States since it could heighten questions over US
support for the war that will be pushed into an acrimonious election year – CNN)
("The counteroffensive is difficult.
It is happening probably slower than how some people may want or can see it.
[...] There is fatigue in our eyes, but there is fear in their eyes.
And these are two very different things."
– Volodymyr Zelenskiy)
Yes, it is clear that things are not moving as fast as some had hoped.
Even so, we do not jump to conclusions so quickly.
In the face of the pessimism, the alarmism expressed by many media outlets and the tremendous
impatience of those who believe that a real war is something like the game Battlefield,
the reality on the actual battlefield may be very different.
Yes, the Russians are putting up a fierce resistance, but...
What do you expect?
Nobody surrenders right off the bat, much less an army that in volume is still huge.
To give you an idea, it is estimated that the Russians currently have more than 400,000
military personnel deployed in Ukraine.
This is something we on VisualPolitik have repeated several times: attacking and gaining
territory is not the same as defending and holding it.
That is usually a much more costly operation.
And, of course, it is now up to the Russians to defend.
Visualpolitik viewers, the counteroffensive is concentrating not only, but particularly
on the Zaporizhzhia Oblast: the goal?
To break the Russian defensive lines, also known as the Surovikin line in honor of the
ousted former head of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.
Apparently, the first major objective would be to reach Melitopol, and once there, to
cause the Russian defenses in the region to be extremely exposed to Ukrainian artillery.
Now, this is not an easy mission at all.
The truth is that the Surovikin line, the Russian defensive lines, have been fulfilling
their function so far, which is to slow down and make the Ukrainian advance much more costly.
And this has been unfolding pretty much as we told you:
For example, it is reasonable to think that the Ukrainians could use their Leopards and
their Western troop transport vehicles to try to break through Russian defenses in areas
near Melitopol, Berdyansk or even Mariupol.
And that attack could start in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
All these obstacles will not be an impediment for the Ukrainians to pass, but rather a hindrance,
a delay that could leave Zelenskiy's troops exposed for longer than recommended in hostile
territory.
Yet, at the end of August, we were faced with news items like these:
(30 August 2023: Ukrainian Troops Have Crossed The First Of The Russians' Three Main Trenchlines
– Forbes)
(30 August 2023: Robotyne is first Ukrainian breach in Russian lines of defense
The capture of the small village is seen as an important step in the counter-offensive
aimed at cutting the land bridge between Russia and Crimea, and thus suffocating Moscow's
forces in the occupied areas to the south – Le Monde)
It was the first clear break in the front line.
Since then the offensive has picked up some speed and the gap has just kept getting bigger
and bigger.
The Ukrainian hope is that once the main line is cut, the Russian defense positions beyond
that will not be so prepared.
Of course, we are still talking about a small advance on the map.
And that is why the doubts have not been dispelled.
In fact, many analysts already point to 2024 and even 2025:
("Ukraine cannot win against Russia now, but victory by 2025 is possible" – Richard Barrons,
former general in the British Army)
In contrast, other analysts, including the Ukrainians themselves, point out that the
counter-offensive has only just begun.
("Combat actions will continue in one way or another.
In the cold, wet and mud, it is more difficult to fight.
Fighting will continue.
The counteroffensive will continue" – Kyrylo Budanov, Kyiv's intelligence chief)
The question, therefore, is, where exactly are we?
How is the counteroffensive going?
What can we really expect from the Ukrainian military macro-operation?
Are we looking at a failure, announcement or near victory?
Well, in this video we are going to answer all these questions.
So let's get into it.
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And now... let's go to Ukraine.
(PUTIN'S ARTIFICIAL VENTILATOR)
In medicine, when a person is seriously ill, he is often put on a ventilator.
Well, making a parallel with Putin, we could say that Surovikin's defensive lines in Ukraine
are the artificial respirator that keeps the Russian dictator's leadership on its feet.
The collapse of Russian defenses in the occupied Ukrainian territories could be devastating
for Vladimir Putin's grip on power, which is precisely why the Russian leader is pulling
out all the stops, so to speak.
(Russia, seeking a bigger army, moves to raise the top age for military service – NYT)
(Russia is reaching for a range of tactics to cajole or coerce men to enroll in the military,
as it looks to buttress its defenses in Ukraine without resorting to a mass mobilization that
could cause political and social friction at home.
– Wall Street Journal)
The point is that, at the time of making this video, this artificial ventilator of Putin’s
– the defensive fortifications – might be starting to crumble.
At least in some key areas.
As you have already seen, the Ukrainians have already managed to break the Surovikin line
around the town of Robotyne.
From there, they are now trying to widen that crack towards Verbove and advance towards
Tokmak, a strategic locality that is literally surrounded by Russian physical defenses.
Practically a 21st century wall.
The Russians have made and will continue to make every effort to prevent Tokmak from falling.
That’s because this location is an important junction of roads and also has a railroad.
In other words it is an important communications junction vital for the supply of Russian troops.
Of course, before reaching Tokmak there are still several fortified sub-lines to overcome.
That is what the Ukrainians are working on in the hope that these lines will be weaker
than the first one.
In any case, even if they succeed, it is an operation that will take time and a lot of
sacrifice.
Likewise, there is also a second Ukrainian advance front active in the area of Velyka
Novosylka, in Donetsk oblast, with which they intend to get closer to Berdyansk.
What’s more, operations around Bakhmut are also underway,
And more recently, the Ukrainians have also launched a pressure operation on Opytne, Donetsk
city's airport.
The fact is that, after the developments in late August and early September, the general
discourse in the media has been changing very fast.
(31st August 2023: Ukrainian Counteroffensive Pierces Main Russian Defensive Line in Southeast
After three months of grinding advances in Western-backed operation, Kyiv accelerates
thrust along main line of attack – The Wall Street Journal)
But I insist, this does not mean that it’s done and dusted for the Ukrainians and that
from now on the war will be a piece of cake.
But it does show one thing: in general, the lack of patience is making the media and many
analysts too pessimistic.
After all, wars practically never have a linear development.
Defenders can hold their positions for a long time and then break down and collapse in a
matter of days or weeks, forcing them to mobilize forces from elsewhere and thus weakening the
entire defense as a whole.
Barely 12 weeks have passed since the start of the counteroffensive, and that, in military
terms, implies that it is still at an early stage.
Penetrating through fortified defenses is an extremely complicated task.
To give you an idea, the US military has only conducted this type of operation twice in
modern history, and both times were against Iraq.
In 1991, they succeeded after bombing the Iraqis relentlessly from the air for 39 long
days and then dropping 650,000 troops on them from both the United States and the international
coalition formed to liberate Kuwait.
And in 2003 they did it again with an already very weak Iraqi army in just a few days, but
also after intense air bombardment operations.
Apart from this, there is no recent precedent for anything like what the Ukrainians face
on the southern flank.
The big difference is that Ukraine has none of the strategic advantages that the United
States had in those two wars against Iraq.
The Ukrainians have no air supremacy, cannot operate over Russian lines, and cannot prevent
Russian planes and helicopters from attacking Ukrainian troops as they try to advance.
In addition, despite large donations of Western weapons, Ukraine does not yet have sufficient
quantities of armored intrusion systems.
Precisely for this reason, the Ukrainians are also trying to be more cautious.
And of course, the enemy factor is also important.
The Russians have a much larger and better equipped armed forces than the Iraqis did.
The defenses prepared to hold the occupied territory have been extremely robust, with
wide belts of mines, anti-tank ditches, dragon teeth and trenches.
What’s more, Russian soldiers are also equipped with numerous drones that are directing artillery
attacks, and are taking advantage of the advances of Ukrainian troops to counterattack when
the Ukranians are more worn out and tired.
Let me repeat, nobody said it would be easy.
Putin's future may come to depend on this operation.
And naturally a collapse on Russian lines would be practically irreversible.
It is the artificial ventilator we were telling you about and there is no way they can allow
it to fall.
Whatever the cost.
Now, many of you may be wondering what might happen with both sides, and what, given the
circumstances, are the strengths and weaknesses of the Ukrainians and the Russians.
Am I wrong?
Well, we are going to take a look at that next.
Pay close attention.
(AT THE POINT OF NO RETURN)
The counteroffensive is at its peak.
The ammunition rounds fired by both sides are at a maximum, and this is visible even
in the most unsuspected details.
For example, take a look at this graph on forest fires in Ukraine.
What you see is the number of fires in the natural environment that are directly related
to the bombings.
As you can see, not only are they much higher than last year at this time, but also the
parts that are suffering the most from these fires are precisely those controlled by Russia.
That indicates that the Ukrainians are gaining significant fire superiority, and are causing
enormous attrition on the Russian front.
However, that has not been enough to achieve a lightning breakthrough.
Now, why is that?
Well, here we enter the realm of strengths and weaknesses.
Russia's first strength is, not surprisingly, that the defender almost always has an advantage
over the attacker.
Thanks to that, Russia is taking a defensive approach known as elastic defense.
The Russian elastic defense consists of using a first line of Russian troops facing the
initial Ukrainian attack and then falling back to more solid defensive positions.
When the Ukrainians advance, and we are usually talking about several hundred meters or one
kilometer at most, they suffer huge losses from mines, artillery, and helicopter and
drone attacks, which wears them down and exhausts them.
It is just then when the Russians typically try to launch a counterattack, which in many
occasions are successful and force the Ukrainians to retreat back to where they were or, in
the best case scenario, to positions that make the advance extremely slow.
It is pure and tough attrition.
And of course, in order to carry out this strategy, above all, it is necessary to have
enough men.
And this is precisely one of Russia's strengths, as it has a manpower mobilization potential
three to four times greater than that of Ukraine.
That’s simply because its population is much larger, and also because many Ukrainian
men of fighting age are abroad as refugees.
In fact, practically the only urgent task already being undertaken by the Russian government
to sustain the front against the Ukrainian counteroffensive is precisely to tap that
potential.
To this end, Russia has passed a new law that allows it to discreetly send draft notices
to as many men as the government wants, it has raised the age of compulsory military
service from 27 to 30, and has not ruled out raising it again in the future.
Russian men unlucky enough to receive the draft order are sent an electronic notification,
and automatically the Russian borders are closed to them, invalidating any attempt to
leave the country.
What’s more, the new law has also increased the penalties for refusing to serve in the
military.
All this is accompanied by a fresh shower of public money on the military industry to
produce weapons and ammunition for all these people.
And they are even negotiating deals with countries like North Korea for ammunition supplies.
So basically, in theory we could think that Russia has a greater capacity than Ukraine,
both to increase the size of the forces involved and to regenerate their ranks.
Besides, as you know, the Kremlin does not care at all about casualties.
A certain psychopathy that also helps to keep the front line manned.
But of course, the Ukrainians are still advancing, so it hasn’t all been so "positive" for
the Russians.
Moscow is having far more headaches than joy during the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
At the strategic level, the geometry of the theater of war favors Ukraine, even though
it is not in a defensive position.
You see, the Russians are in a phase in which they have to defend the ground lines of communication,
known in military jargon as GLOC.
These lines consist of roads and a railway network running from Rostov-on-Don in Russia
to Crimea.
It is through these lines that food, fuel, ammunition, personnel and all necessary supplies
come in, traveling by road or rail.
All this explains, for instance, why the Russians have fortified Tokmak and the Kerch bridge,
which has already suffered at least two major attacks, and now even has barges supporting
underwater anti-drone water nets.
If the Ukrainians managed to reach the shores of the Sea of Azov, or at least get very close
to them, they would have succeeded in cutting off the GLOC from the Russians.
This whole operation could be triggered as a result of the breakup of Robotyne, of Velyka
Novosylka or by another new route, if the Ukrainians manage to penetrate and jump the
Russian fortifications of the battle front.
From there, the Ukrainians would also have all the Russian defensive capacity within
artillery range, which could collapse in a short time.
Let us repeat: according to many military strategy and intelligence reports, the Surovikin
line is absolutely key.
If it collapses at any point and the Ukrainians break through, the Russian military could
be between a rock and a hard place.
It would be a point of no return.
But...
That brings us straight back to the first question: Could it happen?
Is it really possible for the Ukrainians to cause the Russian defenses to collapse?
Well...
Obviously, it is not known, but the result certainly would be attractive...
That behind that hope could be news like this:
(10 September 2023: Biden edges closer to decision on supplying Ukraine with long-range
missiles – FT)
So there you have it.
Everything indicates that the United States could be about to deliver the long-awaited
US Army Tactical Missile System, missiles that can accurately attack targets located
at a distance of up to 300 kilometers or almost 190 miles.
With these missiles, the Ukrainians could make it very difficult for the Russians to
supply the front line, which could make it easier for part of it to fall.
So far, Ukraine has managed to balance the strength of its artillery with the Russian
artillery and even surpass it in certain areas.
With these terribly accurate missiles that Russia would not be able to stop, the defense
of the occupied territories in Ukraine would become even more costly.
Another key factor will be the ability of the West to continue sending advanced armaments
and armor to the Ukrainians.
For the time being, the Abrams are already on their way and more could arrive soon.
And, let’s not forget, also on the table is the future delivery of F-16 aircraft, a
reasonably good aircraft when it comes to attacking ground targets.
In other words, far from what many pessimists predict, in the medium term, the Ukrainian
campaign could even gather speed.
But we don't even have to go that far.
The 2023 counteroffensive may not achieve its most ambitious goals, but let's not be
impatient.
For now the news is beginning to be quite positive.
We'll see what's in store for us in the times ahead.
But one thing to keep in mind: the campaign is not going anywhere near as badly as many
are suggesting.
On the contrary, many Ukrainians are starting to be very optimistic and, in any case, much
more so than they were a month or a month and a half ago.
Of course, with the onset of winter everything may slow down...
Again.
Be that as it may, it’s now time for you to have your say: do you think Ukraine will
manage to meet the objectives of the counteroffensive before the worst of winter arrives?
Will Russia be able to hold its defensive line?
Will Putin's regime be able to withstand the internal pressures that another massive mobilization
of Russian men may bring?
Well, leave us your opinion here below, in the comments.
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All the best and see you next time.