♪ ♪
♪ ♪ >> Chris: I WANT TO PLAY A
CLIP FOR YOU IT’S BEEN VIEWED
MORE THAN 26 MILLION TIMES.
>> IF ANYTHING KILLS OVER
10 MILLION PEOPLE IN THE NEXT
FEW DECADES, IT’S MOST LIKELY TO
BE A HIGHLY INFECTIOUS VIRUS
RATHER THAN A WAR.
NOT MISSILES, BUT MICROBES.
>> Chris: THAT WAS BILL GATES
BACK IN 2015, FIVE YEARS AGO,
WARNING ABOUT PRECISELY THE KIND
OF THREAT WE ARE ALL FACING
RIGHT NOW.
RIGHT NOW. SINCE THEN, GATES HAS BEEN DOING
EVERYTHING HE CAN TO PREVENT A
PANDEMIC.
PANDEMIC. TWO MONTHS AGO, THE GATES
FOUNDATION COMMITTED
FOUNDATION COMMITTED $100 MILLION TO FIGHT THE
CORONAVIRUS.
CORONAVIRUS. EARLIER I SAT DOWN WITH
BILL GATES TO DISCUSS WHAT WE
NEED TO DO NOW.
>> Chris: BILL, IT TOOK FOUR
MONTHS TO REACH HALF A MILLION
CASES AROUND THE WORLD AND JUST
SEVEN DAYS TO ADD ANOTHER
HALF-MILLION CASES.
HALF-MILLION CASES. SO HOW DANGEROUS, HOW FEARSOME
IS THIS VIRUS, AND HOW DO YOU
SEE THIS EPIDEMIC PLAYING OUT IN
THE U.S.?
THE U.S.? >> Bill: WELL THIS IS A
NIGHTMARE SCENARIO BECAUSE HUMAN
TO HUMAN TRANSMISSION WILL
RESPIRATORY VIRUSES CAN GROW
EXPONENTIALLY AND IF WE HAD KEPT
ON GOING TO WORK, TRAVELING LIKE
WE WERE, YOU KNOW, THAT CURVE
WOULD NEVER BEND UNTIL YOU HAVE
THE MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE
INFECTED AND THEN A MASSIVE
NUMBER SEEKING HOSPITAL CARE AND
LOTS AND LOTS OF DEATH, SO WE
HAD TO USE QUARANTINE, WHICH IS
AN OLD THING BACK FROM THE DAYS
OF THE PLAGUE AS OUR PRIMARY
TOOL.
TOOL. FORTUNATELY, IF WE USE THAT WELL
ENOUGH, WE SHOULD TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS MONTH START TO SEE
THOSE NUMBERS LEVEL OFF AND THEN
IF WE CONTINUE COUNTRY-WIDE AND
WE ARE TESTING THE RIGHT PEOPLE
TO UNDERSTAND WHAT’S GOING ON,
WHICH IS NOT THE CASE YET, THOSE
NUMBERS WILL START TO GO DOWN
AND THEN WE CAN LOOK AT SOME
DEGREE OF OPENING BACK UP.
>> Chris: PRESIDENT TRUMP’S
TOP HEALTH ADVISORS ARE TALKING
ABOUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
10,240,000 DEATHS OVER THE NEXT
TWO MONTHS.
TWO MONTHS. DOES THAT SOUND ABOUT RIGHT TO
YOU IN TERMS OF THE LETHALITY
AND THE LENGTH OF THE OUTBREAK
HERE IN THE U.S.?
>> Bill: WELL, IF WE DO THE
SOCIAL DISTANCING PROPERLY WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET OUT OF
THIS WITH THE DEATH NUMBER WELL
SHORT OF THAT.
IT’S VERY IMPORTANT THAT THOSE
NUMBERS ARE OUT THERE BECAUSE A
LOT OF PEOPLE ARE STILL
THINKING, HEY THIS IS LIKE
NORMAL.
NORMAL. IF NOT WAKING UP EVERY DAY TO A
COMPLETELY NEW REALITY.
SO I WAS VERY GLAD THAT THOSE
ARE OUT THERE, DR. FAUCI IS
DOING A VERY GOOD JOB OF SAYING
THE NUMBERS ARE WHAT COUNT HERE
AND YOU KNOW, THE VARIOUS MODELS
THAT WE IN THE UNIVERSITY DO,
SHOW THAT WITHOUT THIS DRAMATIC
BEHAVIOR CHANGE YOU COULD EVEN
GET WORSE THAN THAT, BUT I DO
THINK IF WE GET THE TESTING
FIXED, WE GET ALL 50 STATES
INVOLVED, WE WILL BE BELOW THAT.
OF COURSE WE WILL PAY A HUGE
ECONOMIC PRICE IN ORDER TO
ACHIEVE THAT.
ACHIEVE THAT. >> Chris: YOU SAY THAT IF WE
DO EVERYTHING RIGHT NOW IN TERMS
OF TESTING AND SHUTTING THE
COUNTRY DOWN, THAT WE SHOULD
HAVE ONLY ONE WAVE OF THIS
VIRUS.
VIRUS. WHY ARE YOU SO CONFIDENT?
BECAUSE A LOT OF PEOPLE AREN’T
SO SURE THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO
HAVE A RECURRENCE WHEN WE GET
ANOTHER FLU SEASON NEXT FALL.
>> Bill: WE DON’T KNOW HOW
SEASONAL THIS VIRUSES.
IT WOULD PROBABLY BE GOOD FOR
THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IF THE
FORCE OF INFECTION GOES DOWN
WHEN WE GET INTO SPRING AND
SUMMER AND GIVE US SOME TIME TO
GET BOTH THE DRUGS AND ADVANCED
THE VACCINE.
THE VACCINE. IT IS FAIR TO SAY THINGS WON’T
GO BACK TO TRULY NORMAL UNTIL WE
HAVE A VACCINE THAT WE’VE GOTTEN
OUT TO BASICALLY THE ENTIRE
WORLD AND SO, THE BEST PEOPLE AT
THE FOUNDATION WERE ALL ABOUT
HIGH-VOLUME VACCINES AND ARE
WORKING WITH MANY MANUFACTURERS
NOT ONLY -- BUT GETTING THAT
BILLIONS OF DOSE CAPACITY.
AND SO LIKE CHINA, THERE WILL BE
A PARTIAL OPENING UP, WHICH SOME
JOBS WILL RESUME, SCHOOL WILL
RESUME, BUT WILL HAVE TO BE
VERY, VERY CAREFUL NOT TO HAVE
THE REBOUND UNTIL THE VACCINE
COMES.
COMES. >> Chris: YOU TALK ABOUT THE
FOUNDATION.
FOUNDATION. ALL THE WAY BACK ON
FEBRUARY 5TH, THE GATES
FOUNDATION COMMITTED
FOUNDATION COMMITTED $100 MILLION TO FIGHT THIS
VIRUS, BUT YOU POINT OUT THE
FACT THAT OUR GOVERNMENT, LIKE A
LOT OF OTHER GOVERNMENTS, WAS
VERY SLOW TO RESPOND, REALLY
ANOTHER TWO MONTHS, WE MIGHT
HAVE LOST.
HAVE LOST. HOW MUCH DID THAT COST US IN
TERMS OF THE SPREAD OF THIS
DISEASE, THAT ONE OR TWO MONTHS
THAT WE LOST TO >> Bill: THERE
ARE COUNTRIES LIKE TAIWAN, WHO
ARE EXEMPLARY.
ARE EXEMPLARY. SAW THE PROBLEM AND REALLY GOT
THE TESTING, COMMUNITY-WIDE
TESTING DONE VERY WELL.
THEY PRIORITIZE TO GET TESTED
AND SO THEY WON’T EITHER HAVE
THE DISEASE OR THE ECONOMIC
EFFECT THAT OTHER COUNTRIES WILL
HAVE.
HAVE. CHINA, BY LATE JANUARY, HAD
TAKEN SYRIA -- HADN’T TAKEN IT
SERIOUSLY SO THEIR ABILITY TO
GET THE CASES TO COME DOWN HAS
BEEN DRAMATIC.
BEEN DRAMATIC. SO THERE ARE LESSONS THAT WE ARE
LEARNING FROM AND WE ARE ALL IN
THIS TOGETHER.
THIS TOGETHER. WE’VE GOT TO GET RID OF
CORONAVIRUS FROM THE ENTIRE
WORLD.
WORLD. THE U.S., WE CAN SEE HOW TOUGH
IT IS HERE, LIKELY IT WILL BE
EVEN WORSE IN THE DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES WHO AS YET DON’T HAVE
NEARLY AS MANY CASES.
>> Chris: HOW DO YOU THINK THE
FEDERAL AND THE STATE
GOVERNMENTS ARE RESPONDING NOW,
AND WOULD YOU PREFER TO SEE IT
ALL BEING HANDLED ON A NATIONAL
LEVEL, WHETHER IT’S STAY-AT-HOME
ORDERS ARE TESTING OR THE SUPPLY
CHAIN, WOULD YOU PREFER TO SEE
THIS ALL BEING HANDLED ON A
NATIONAL CENTRALIZED LEVEL
RATHER THAN STATE-BY-STATE?
>> Bill: WHEN YOU HAVE FINITE
RESOURCES YOU NEED TO ALLOCATE
THEM TO WHERE THERE IS THE MOST.
CERTAINLY BECAUSE PEOPLE MOVE
AROUND THE COUNTRY WE HAVE TO
HAVE THE SHUTDOWN OR ELSE YOU’LL
HAVE EXPONENTIAL GROWTH THAT
WILL SPREAD BACK INTO OTHER
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
IN TERMS OF TESTING, PEOPLE HAVE
GOTTEN CONFUSED AND THINK IT’S
JUST ABOUT NUMBERS.
THE KEY IS THAT YOU HAVE A
RESPONSE TO THE TEST IN LESS
THAN 24 HOURS.
AND THAT YOU’RE PRIORITIZING THE
RIGHT PEOPLE.
RIGHT PEOPLE. AND SO ALTHOUGH THE NUMBERS ARE
GOING UP, WE ARE NOT YET
FOCUSING IN ON THAT, YOU KNOW,
MEDICAL PERSONNEL OR SOMEBODY
WHO’S KEEPING THE FOOD
DISTRIBUTION WORKING AND BEING
ABLE TO SAVE SOMEBODY WHO
TEST -- VERY QUICKLY TEST THEIR
CONTACTS, SO I DO THINK YOU KNOW
THAT ALLOCATION, PRIORITIZATION
OF TESTING WILL BE A KEY TACTIC
FOR US TO GET INTO GOOD SHAPE.
>> Chris: AT THAT NEEDS TO BE
DONE AT A NATIONAL LEVEL, NOT A
STATE LEVEL?
STATE LEVEL? VICTOR THAT’S RIGHT.
IF YOU HAVE SOME STATES THAT IT
JUST HAPPENS NUMBER OF PCR
MACHINES IN THAT STATE ARE VERY
FEW AND YOU WOULDN’T THINK, HEY,
THAT’S THE WAY THEY SHOULD BE
DONE.
DONE. ALSO THE OUTBREAK IS BIGGER IN
SOME AREAS, AND SO THEREFORE,
THAT DRIVES THE TESTING DEMAND.
LIKEWISE, THE VENTILATOR DEMAND.
I MEAN, THIS IS ALL VERY AD HOC
BECAUSE WE NEVER DID A
FULL-BLOWN SIMULATION.
FULL-BLOWN SIMULATION. THERE WERE A FEW THINGS DONE BUT
IT’S NOT LIKE WAR WHERE WE DO
WAR GAMES ALL THE TIME, WE HAVE
PEOPLE STANDING BY, RESOURCES
STANDING BY IN A DRAMATIC LEVEL.
YOU KNOW, WE’RE KIND OF FIGURING
THIS OUT AS WE GO, WHICH PEOPLE
ARE RISING TO THE OCCASION AND
IT’S FANTASTIC TO SEE THAT, BUT,
EVERY DAY WE CAN SEE THAT CASE
NUMBER IS STILL GOING UP.
>> Chris: ONE YOU GAVE THAT
FAMOUS TED TALK FIVE YEARS AGO
YOU LAID OUT A LOT OF THE THINGS
THAT WERE STARTING TO DO NOW,
LIKE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON
THE DASH AND R&D ON VACCINES.
BUT SO MANY COUNTRIES AROUND THE
WORLD, INCLUDING THE U.S. BACK
IN 2015, LARGELY IGNORED YOUR
WARNINGS.
WARNINGS. WHY DO YOU THINK THAT WAS?
>> Bill: WELL, IT’S HARD TO
PUT MONEY INTO SOMETHING WHERE
YOU DON’T KNOW IF IT’S GOING TO
HAPPEN.
HAPPEN. WE DO FOR FIRES BECAUSE WE’VE
SEEN THAT OVER TIME.
WE DO FOR WAR.
IN FACT, 600 BILLION A YEAR.
IN THAT CASE, WHAT WOULD HAVE
BEEN REQUIRED IS NOTHING LIKE
THAT.
THAT. THE ABILITY TO MAKE A TEST
SUPER, THE ABILITY TO KNOW A
LIBRARY OF DRUGS THAT WOULD WORK
FOR THIS.
FOR THIS. AND YOU HAVE THE VACCINE VERY
QUICKLY.
QUICKLY. I AM SURE AFTER THIS, WHICH IS
JUST SUCH A GIGANTIC IMPACT,
THAT WE WILL PUT THAT MONEY IN.
BUT BETWEEN 2015 AND 2020, WE
HAVE LESS THAN 5% OF WHAT SHOULD
HAVE BEEN DONE WAS DONE.
PEOPLE DIDN’T GET THAT THIS IS
THE BIGGEST SINGLE THREAT THAT
COULD DISRUPT OUR WAY OF LIFE,
WHICH, EVEN HAVING PREDICTED
THAT AS A RISK, I’M REALLY
STUNNED AT HOW TOUGH IT IS TO GO
THROUGH THIS.
THROUGH THIS. THE MEDICAL COST, THE ECONOMIC
COST, THE PSYCHOLOGICAL COST.
EVERYBODY’S LIVES HAVE BEEN
COMPLETELY UPENDED AND THAT’S
NOT JUST THE UNITED STATES, IT’S
ALMOST THE ENTIRE WORLD.
>> Chris: LET ME ASK YOU
PERSONALLY ABOUT THAT.
BILL AND MELINDA GATES, I THINK
IT’S FAIR TO SAY, NOT YOUR
TYPICAL AMERICAN FAMILY, BUT HOW
HAS THIS VIRUS, THIS EPIDEMIC,
HOW IS IT UPENDED YOUR LIFE AND
HOW PERSONALLY ARE YOU DEALING
WITH AND PROCESSING WHAT WE ARE
GOING THROUGH NOW?
>> Bill: WELL, I’M A LOT MORE
ISOLATED.
ISOLATED. THE MEETINGS ARE OUR OWN
SOFTWARE, MICROSOFT TEAMS.
YOU KNOW, EVEN FRIENDS THAT I
WOULD NORMALLY GO SEE, WE’RE
DOING VIDEOCONFERENCING, WHICH
SEEMS A BIT UNUSUAL.
YOU KNOW, THERE’S A LOT OF
ANXIETY ABOUT HOW FAR DOES THIS
GO.
GO. IF WE HAVE OF THE FOUNDATION WHO
HAVE A VET -- FEEL A BIT ISOLATE
BECAUSE THERE JUST IN OUR
APARTMENT, SOME WITH THEIR KIDS
THERE FEEL IT’S VERY CROWDED, SO
HOW DO WE HELP PEOPLE DEAL WITH
THIS?
THIS? YOU KNOW, A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE
RISING TO THE OCCASION, BUT, YOU
KNOW, FOR ME, YOU KNOW, MY LIFE
IS JUST COMPLETELY DIFFERENT.
I WAKE UP EVERY MORNING AND
THINK IS THIS REAL OR WAS IT
SOMETHING I HAD A NIGHTMARE
ABOUT?
ABOUT? >> Chris: BIKE ALL THE REST OF
US, DO YOU GET SCARED SOMETIMES
AND IF SO, ABOUT WHAT?
>> Bill: WELL, THIS ISN’T THE
WORST CASE.
WORST CASE. THAT IS THE 1% OR SO FATALITY
RATE WHEN A MEDICAL SYSTEM IS
NOT OVERLOADED.
NOT OVERLOADED. IF THIS WAS SMALLPOX THAT WOULD
BE LIKE 30%, SO THIS IS SUPER,
SUPER BAD, BUT WE WILL
EVENTUALLY GET A VACCINE, EVEN
BEFORE THEN IF WE DO THE RIGHT
THINGS, WE WILL BE ABLE TO OPEN
UP SIGNIFICANT PARTS OF THE
ECONOMY AND -- YOU KNOW, ONCE
YOU’RE IN THE CRISIS, YOU’RE
JUST DOING YOUR BEST TO DEAL
WITH IT.
WITH IT. I’M SURE ONCE WE GET PAST THIS
WE WILL LOOK BACK, UNDERSTAND
WHAT WE COULD HAVE DONE
DIFFERENTLY, AND MAKE SURE THAT
WE ARE NOT LETTING IT HAPPEN
AGAIN, PARTICULARLY BECAUSE IT
COULD BE EVEN WORSE IN TERMS OF
THE FATALITY RATE.
>> Chris: BILL GATES, NEXT
TIME YOU GIVE ONE OF THESE
SPEECHES, I HOPE, I TRUST PEOPLE