Manchester City have invested heavily in the transfer market but have struggled this season
with a lack of high-quality central defenders. While Liverpool bought Virgil van Dijk and
look set to add a Premier League title to last season’s Champions League, City’s
issues in this position have weakened them and Pep Guardiola should spend.
City’s current options come with caveats. Aymeric Laporte has had significant fitness
issues, especially a knee injury, since his high profile move from Athletic Club de Bilbao
– he still has the potential to be one of the best central defenders in the world, but
there must be question marks over his ability to return and perform at a very high level
after such a long lay-off. John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi have had their own problems
with form and fitness, so much so that Fernandinho, such a key player in City’s system, has
been forced to deputise at centre back. This robs City of their best defensive midfielder
and is unsustainable anyway: Fernandinho is 34 and was himself earmarked as needing replacement,
City will never struggle to compete in the league but this is the area most likely to
hold them back from regaining the title, assuming that Liverpool are crowned Champions, and
fighting off other challengers.
Manchester City need to spend money on a really good central defender, possibly two.
It’s helpful to set some parameters. The player should be 28 or younger, to ensure
that they are at peak age or younger. They should have played 800 minutes this season
to ensure that the sample size for their metrics isn’t so small as to make comparisons pointless.
And they should fit a Guardiola team. Defending is key, but so is passing. So defensive duels,
tackles, aerial duels and interceptions are important, but we’ll also be looking at
progressive passing, passes into the final third, and accuracy of passing, including
long balls.
Manchester City will have a sizeable budget. It’s reasonable to assume that they want
proven quality, so we’ve looked at Europe and within South America’s Top Five leagues,
in addition to Holland and Portugal.
An alternative and unlikely solution might be Bruno Fuchs, a 21 year old Brazilian defender
at Internacional. He’s 6ft3 and loves to carry the ball forwards out of defence, often
beating the press. He’s raw, and his one-on-one defending can be suspect, but he’s a proactive
defender capable of turning defence into attacking with a surging run or a long pass. No defender
we looked at made more progressive passes in South America’s top five leagues, with
14.6 per 90. He also makes 10.3 final third passes at 76% accuracy, which is really good
for a defender. Internacional are also coached by Eduardo Coudet, a really interesting 45
year-old manager who cites Marcelo Bielsa as an influence and is one of South America’s
strongest coaching prospects. Fuchs has the physical attributes and is a good passer and
carrier; his defence needs work but he’s one to keep an eye on.
In Europe, there are a few obvious players of interest. Jose Gimenez at Atletico Madrid
and Athletic Club’s Inigo Martinez are robust, high quality stoppers who can pass. Leicester
City’s Caglar Soyuncu is dynamic and a good passer who is also developing his defensive
game alongside Jonny Evans, one of the league’s more underrated centre backs; Newcastle United’s
Fabian Schar would be a great, less expensive option for almost any top level side. Kalidou
Koulibaly is one of the world’s best and Napoli could be minded to sell their prime
defensive asset but it could be a huge fee. There are two central defenders in Europe
that we feel stand out, though.
RB Leipzig’s Dayot Upamecano, who is still only 21, is one of the best defenders in the
Bundesliga already. His 10.8 final third passes per 90 at 83% accuracy is the best by any
of the central defenders we looked at in Europe’s top five leagues, while only Mattias Ginter
of BMG makes more progressive passes per 90.
But Upamecano is a defensive asset too, winning just under 80% of his duels – fourth in
Europe’s top five leagues. He’s also being strong in the air and has won 65% of his aerial
duels this season. A year under an astute tactician like Julian Nagelsmann would benefit
any player, and Upamecano is assured and intelligent as well as possessing excellent physical attributes
– in short, he could become one of the world’s outstanding defenders. He’s valued at 45
million Euros and would be hard to prise away from Leipzig, but he’d improve any side.
Our choice, though, is Milan Skriniar, the 6ft2, 25 year-old Slovak defender at Inter
Milan. His passing volume is big for a defender, with 62 passes per 90 at a really impressive
94% accuracy, which only dips to 90% when accounting just for forward passes. He’s
a great long passer, too, with 68% accuracy for his 4.6 long passes per 90. He makes a
relatively limited 7.1 final third passes per 90, but they are 85% accurate, while his
9.2 progressive passes per 90 is good but not outstanding.
Defensively, he wins a decent 55% of his duels and 62% of his aerial duels, while making
5.3 interceptions per 90 adjusted for opposition possession.
But Inter’s defence, of which Skriniar is the key man playing on the left side of a
back three, has conceded the second lowest Expected Goals Against in Serie A and the
joint second fewest actual number of goals. They make the fifth fewest defensive duels
overall, which helps contextualise Skriniar’s low numbers for this. He’s an elegant but
assertive defender, capable of carrying the ball forwards from his position on the flank
of a back three. And at 25, although he’s valued at 48 million Euros, he’s about to
enter his prime.
The transformational acquisition of a centre back can elevate a side to greater heights,
giving defensive solidity and the ability to transition from defence to attack with
one pass. In addition, Manchester City need options in that position in a way they do
not in others. Purchasing a player of the calibre of Milan Skriniar or Dayot Upemacano
is Manchester City’s best use of resources and is likely to have the greatest impact
on the pitch.