Judy: The midterm election
season is now in full swing and
both parties are vying for
control over what is currently
an evenly divided senate.
Currently Democrats hold 48
seats, plus the two independent
senators who caucus with the
democratic party, while
Republicans hold 50 seats.
This year's 35 senate midterm
contests could change that
balance of power.
Following this all closely is
Jessica Taylor of the cook
political report, with Amy
Walter.
Jessica, welcome back to the
newshour.
Yesterday we looked at the
house, now we are going to look
at the senate.
What does it look like?
Jessica: It looks much better
for Democrats than many
Democrats I talked to ever
thought.
Historically, the incumbent
president, their party lsoe
ss -- loses an average of two
seats per cycle.
Republicans only need one seat.
I would have put it at a 60% to
65% chance the spring when you
had rising gas, Biden's will
ratings were in the mid 30's.
All of us felt it was going to
be a tsunami perhaps.
The question was how high could
Republicans go.
But now, what we have seen is a
tightening overall of the
national landscape that is
reflected in the house but
especially the senate.
Again, gas prices have gotten
better, the Biden white house
and congressional Democrats pass
to the inflation reduction act,
semiconductor bill.
And also that key decision that
came down at the end of June
that sent roe V. Wade back to
the states.
That has animated a lot of women
voters who are registering right
now.
We are seeing this enthusiasm
gap that Republicans had been
able to capitalize on earlier,
but Democrats are closing it.
And in the senate, candidates
matter more.
I was skeptical at the beginning
of the cycle because we have
seen senate races come so
parliamentary almost, where
voters are voting for a party,
not necessarily a candidate.
Again, that is how, all things
considered, when we look at
historical midterms, that is
what I would have expected to
happen.
But you have Republicans who
have nominated some very
problematic candidates.
Judy: So, the abortion decision
by the supreme court has
energized Democrats you are
saying.
, These candidates, specifically
the ones endorsed by president
trump, you are saying that that
is having an impact?
Jessica: Republicans who have
been working for years are so
worried because they were like,
we are going to snatch defeat
from the vase a victory.
Had we nominated more
traditional candidates and not
at the trump-endorsed candidates
that he got in and meddled with,
off and throwing his weight
behind the more controversial
candidate, these races could
have looked a lot different.
So will Republicans on election
night bethinking woulda coulda
shoulda?
Judy: Your are talking states
like Pennsylvania, Ohio,
Arizona?
Jessica: Pennsylvania is one
where we had a tossup, and we
moved it a few weeks ago to two
Democrats.
Republicans are having to play
defense right now.
That is the number one seat we
could see possibly flip.
Judy: Looking at men met oz.
Jessica: He came out of a brutal
primary.
But his approval ratings in the
state are underwater and he is
pretty well known.
You have John Fetterman, who
faces real questions about his
health.
Judy: The Democrat.
Jessica: The lieutenant governor
after he sucker -- suffered a
stroke on the eve of the
election.
I have even heard Republicans
say he seems more authentic
because Dr. Oz had been living
in New Jersey and moved to
Pennsylvania just for this race.
Judy: There are four states you
singled out to us that you are
particularly paying close
attention to, closely contested.
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and
Wisconsin.
Jessica: Three of those are
democratic held and the should
be the top targets for
Republicans.
These are all states that Biden
won by under three points in all
of them.
Arizona, mark Kelly is outpacing
where Biden's numbers were in
the state.
You see typically a good run
would be three to five points of
ahead of where your party's
president is, what he is
overrunning by seven points,
John Fetterman by nine point.
Masters is a very controversial
candidate.
He worked for the former PayPal
billionaire Peter teal.
And he has a lot of baggage,
things he wrote in college
sympathizing with the Unabomber
and favorably quoting a Nazi
leader.
We're also seeing Mcconnell's
super pac cut money from this
race.
So this is a race --
Judy: Then Georgia with Herschel
walker.
Jessica: Also like mark Kelly,
Herschel walker just won in a
special election.
He is raising a tone of money --
trump really got him into this
race.
He won the primary for many
reasons, not trump being among
them.
But he is lagging behind.
We could actually see in the
governors race there, Brian Kemp
is running ahead.
Could he help Herschel walker
over the goal line?
Judy: We should clarify, Raphael
Warnock won in that special
election.
Very quickly, you have Nevada
with another trump endorsement.
Jessica: Adam laxalt is more of
a generic Republican.
Was former attorney general.
And in Wisconsin, Ron Johnson is
the most endangered senate
Republican.
He is behind in polling with the
lieutenant governor there,
barns.
Johnson's approval ratings are
very low for an incumbent.
He has managed to hang on
before, so could we see this one
be tight.
These could all go either way.
We still see the senate overall
as a tossup but it is a much
better environment for Democrats
with two months to go than many
of them had anticipated.
Judy: Fascinating.
One really interesting race
closely fought in state after
state.
Jessica Taylor, thank you very
much.