Hey everybody.
ABC10 Meteorologist, the Brendan
Menchev here with a drought upd.
We're going to take a quick
look at the Drought monitor,
then we're going to move on.
We're going to talk about warming nights
and also one of the most importt
places in the entire state of California.
That would be the delta.
Yeah, we're going to get to all that.
Let's start with a check of the map though.
And we're going to see no
drought for 71.88% of the state.
That is all that Gray there
abnormally dry 23.49%.
That number is actually gone upt
a fraction of a percentage poin,
but again, not technically in drought.
So really the map remains.
For all intents and purposes unchanged,
let's talk some snowpack though
this number continues to get
smaller that April first averag,
about 12% of that April first average
in the Northern Sierra and 14% n
both the Central and Southern Sierra.
As the melt continues at this point of
the year that was updated on June 30th.
And so statewide 325% of averagd
13% of that April first average.
So that's the snow pack.
Reservoirs though are doing
very well as well.
Maybe you've been to a reservoir recently,
Lake Shasta, Lake Oroville,
maybe like Folsom.
It's been so hot recently.
Putting some feet in the water,
getting in the water is probably
the best way to cool off.
So as of July 1st,
these numbers all above or at or above 94%.
Shasta, Oroville and Folsom,
three of the key players
here in Northern California.
Speaking of the heat,
well,
it had been a while since we had a high
temperature of 100 degrees or greater.
In fact,
between September 10th and Juneh
that was 293 straight days with a high
temperature of less than 100 degrees.
That was tied for the sixth lont
such stretch since the year 199,
but again, that has since.
Come to an end.
Let's look back at the month of June at
this point, which is done and dusted.
But there's a couple things that
are really going to stand out h.
The first thing might be all
the days in blue, right?
With below average temperatures.
We had a lot of days with highs in the 80s,
even plenty of days with
highs in the upper 70s.
In the month of June,
our average high for most of the
month was climbing through the s
towards about 93 degrees by thee
we got to the end of the month.
So yeah,
plenty of days with below
average temperatures 23.
Of them,
in fact,
only seven days with above average highs,
but the days that were above ave
were actually quite a bit above average.
Pretty warm 9396 for the first weekend
in June in downtown Sacramento d
then the last couple days in Ju,
just to change things up on us.
99 degrees and then 105 degrees,
which at the time was the warmest day
we had so far this year.
Now I showed this chart a little
while ago because the month of June in
2023 was on the chart for one oe
top five coolest months that we,
But with those last couple of ds
which clocked in way above aver,
That has since fallen out out oe
top five coolest that we've had.
But still, it was much better tn
the June we had last year in 20,
when that average high temperature for
the entire month was 93.2 degre.
All right, so the month of July
just started today.
The recording of this video is
happening on the morning of July 2nd,
so we only have one day to talk about,
but man, it was a hot day.
Downtown Sacramento made it to 109 degrees.
The average high is 93, so way,
way above that to start the monh
of July in Sacramento when we've
got another day in the triple
digits pending for July 2nd.
So the warmest days of 2023,
a 109 degrees,
no surprise,
was easily the warmest day we had so far.
And in fact it tied.
The old daily high temperature
record for July 1st in downtown
Sacramento 109 previously set in
1950 Sacramento Executive Airport 107
was not a high temperature reco,
but doesn't even matter.
107109 feels exactly the same.
109 degrees in Stockton was a
new record there,
also beating the previous year
and then 106 degrees.
Was the high temperature down in Modesto not.
A high temperature record,
but again,
the difference between one O 6 and one O 9.
It all feels just about the sam.
All of us were baking across the
valley yesterday.
I want to talk about the Climate Shift Index.
Now this is an interesting tool
that we can use.
This is developed by the team
at Climate Central.
An interesting tool that we cane
because it can tell us how much
more likely a high temperature
or low temperature was made by
the effects of climate change.
And so this is for July 2nd, wh.
Again, we're in for more triple digits today.
About 107 is the forecast high
in Sacramento for July 2nd.
So how much more likely is thath
temperature made by climate cha?
Well,
two on the scale of 0 to 5 and n
negatives if it's made less lik.
So the high temperature today
is twice as likely to happen.
Because of a change in climate.
Now here's something that's
really interesting.
The low temperatures,
which have been in the upper 60,
low 70s across the valley
in and around Sacramento,
that climate shift index is a f.
And So what that means on the index scale,
our high temperature was made at least
twice as likely due to climate change.
That's a dominant climate change influence.
But.
When we talk about that level
4 on the Climate Shift index,
that's extreme climate change
influence are low temperatures right?
This the coolest part of the da,
which is just before sunrise.
Climate change is making these
warmer temperatures at least
four times more likely to happe.
So we can say there is an extree
climate change influence on thew
temperatures that we are havings
weekend in downtown Sacramento,
but it's actually part of a trend over the
last 50 years of warming summer nights.
And so this is for the United States as a
whole since the year 1970 to the year 2022.
And we can see that the averagew
temperature in the summer months
has increased by 2.6 degrees on
average across the United State.
Here in Northern California,
here's a map of Sacramento follows that
trend almost exactly and has increased
by about 2 1/2 degrees since the year 1970.
You can see that here,
that trend line very obviously increasing
over the last 50 years and certy
since about the year 2000 or so.
You see that number has certainy
increased over the summer.
Again, this is just for the summer months,
not for the year as a whole.
We can look at the year as a wh,
but specifically this is talking
again just about the summer mon.
And so that's part of that clime
shift index, right we can.
End point, the day.
Today's low and high temperaturs
based on climate change,
based on that climate shift ind.
But we can also see the trend over the
last 50 years follows that as w.
Which tells you something is changing, right?
The other thing is that the summer days,
the average departure,
how much warmer we are over the
summer over the last 50 years.
Again, same kind of map, 1970 to 2022.
This is in Sacramento, Northern California.
Increased by about 1.7 degrees as a whole.
Now that accounts for temperatue
throughout the daytime,
the low and the high,
But it's obvious to see that our
overnight low temperatures are
increasing at a faster rate than
our daytime high temperatures.
And that's one of the things whn
we talk about heat risk,
right when we talk about that excessive
heat warning in the foothills especially.
Is why they had that excessive
heat warning first.
Why they had that higher heat
risk first is because of how muh
warmer they are overnight.
Those warm overnights don't allow people
and animals really the opportunity to
cool off and let the body come k
down from the heat of the dayti.
And in fact I I bring this up a lot when
we talk about warming overnightw
temperatures in 2020 in British Columbia,
Canada.
Overnight heat and how hot it w,
what really all day long duringe
afternoon and during the overnis
killed more people than COVID.
And that was again in the summer of 2020,
over about a week span in British Columbia.
Now this is something I talked t
last week with the changing averages,
changing extremes. I like to show this chart.
This is the bell curve because
roughly looks like a bell.
And so events on the tails at each end,
we call those the tails.
Those are the extremes.
Extreme heat, extreme cold,
this is for the past climate.
Most of our days would fall somewhere
right in here in that middle.
That's why it's highest there.
That's showing you where most of the data,
most of the days come from.
Here's what's happening with climate change.
Our bell curve is shifting
and so as it shifts,
our normal temperatures shift.
So now we're seeing the majority of our.
Whatever we're talking about average highs,
average lows, overnight temperatures,
rainfall, snowfall,
a lot of that is now shifting.
So now we're seeing that extreme becoming
more common, but also the tails,
right, that extreme extreme is
becoming more common as well.
So you can think about this in
context of overnight lows, righ?
50 years ago,
most of our overnight lows fell right
here with that changing climate,
with climate change,
now we're seeing most of our
overnight lows falling over her,
which are warmer.
And so this is how we can connet
the dots with climate change
and with our daytime highs,
we always focus on the triple digits.
It's always kind of the most
astounding number to look at isn
we climb into those triple digi.
But those overnight lows are pes
even more important because that
is kind of our rest and reset
that we get from Mother Nature.
And if those temperatures contie
to climb at a rate they're clim,
that rest and reset that we get
during the overnights is really
not going to be there.
Now the other part of the story
to talk about is the Delta.
And I kind of tie these in
together because the Delta,
when I talked to the newly
appointed water master,
Jay Ziegler,
he told me that the Delta is pes
the place in California most
impacted by climate change becae
it's fighting a war on 2 fronts
with fresh water and salt water
and how that impacts water qual.
This is all part of it upcoming
special that we're doing here
at ABC10 called Water Wasted.
But I want to go ahead and focus
on the Delta here.
Let's talk about the Delta.
Here's what Jay had to say.
And I really left these sound bs
long because I wanted him to bee
to kind of tell that whole stor.
Take a look.
The position of the Delta
Water Master was created by the
Delta Reform Act in 2009 and
essentially the Delta Water Mas.
Is something of a referee of war
rights with the goal of protectg
water quality in the Delta.
Jay Ziegler was appointed as the Delta
Water Master at the beginning of April,
and while he might be new to the
position, he's not new to the D.
This region, the, the,
the delta itself, it's five county area,
some 700,000 acres and you know,
57 reclaimed islands and some
up to 200 islands at last count
throughout the delta is really
uniquely threatened by climate change.
In fact, I think I would make te
argument that this area is more
threatened by climate change thn
any other place in the United
States because it's dueling wit.
Sea level rise coming from the t
and more unpredictable freshwatr
conditions as a result of changg
precipitation from climate chan.
So again, the big winter rains
that we saw this past winter and
20 years of drought interrupted
by a couple of rainy years is.
The new normal that California
is more likely to see,
and you've got a wide array
of of different land use and
economic interests at stake her.
You have about 75% of the land n
the Delta is used for agricultu.
Every crop from tomatoes to gra,
triticali and potatoes and corn,
rice and everything in between.
And so.
You've got a wide diversity
of crops that are grown in the
Delta and at the same time,
it's a really unique ecosystem
in in geologic time.
It's very young,
it's what you see around you is
really 10,000 years old and it's
the product of the end of the
last glaciation in California,
where you know this area was rey
created by a lot of deposition
from the glaciers melting.
And then we've all been through
the Carkena Straits.
It has a very narrowing effect d
really held sediment behind it.
And so that created a very uniqe
system called an inverse delta because
they're in the Mississippi delt.
That's a traditional delta where
the river has worked to just puh
soil out and create more land.
This delta was created by holdig
soil back and holding water bact
the same time and creating a mae
wetland complex that we've lost 95% of that.
And that's why I also say.
It's kind of California's first
big public works project,
dating from the end of the Gold Rush era.
Many of these islands have been
here since 1860.
So you have a a a wide array ofd
use types and you've got differt
economics interests in that from
recreational users in the Westen
Delta that are out here for kayaking,
windsurfing,
kite surfing.
A lot of bass fishermen in the delta,
you've got agriculture in the D,
you've got agritourism in the D.
You've got a lot of people that
find this an amazing place to l,
and it's a refuge from a lot of
people from the Bay Area moving
W into Delta communities.
And so it's a very unique place
with a lot of competing values
and I think the one thing.
That every one of those stakehos
would agree on is what we
really have to watch for.
The health of the Delta in the
future is watching what what's
our water quality like?
What is the salinity of the watr
like and how do we, how do we
keep a freshwater and brackish
freshwater ecosystem together functioning.
So the Delta is hugely importan,
from wildlife and recreation uss
to agriculture and water delive.
It's really the keystone
of the state water project
let's call it the water hub of California
and and all the nature that deps
on that and the 75% of Californs
that live to the South of us and
and and and recognize this is ay
complex place that we have 700 miles of
waterways across this the five county
area of of that we call the Delta and.
You know, so that's a trip down to Los
Angeles and back basically in t,
in this one area across 5 counties in
this region. And so to put it in scale,
if we fail to do this here,
everyone in California deserves to ask,
well, where are we going to sucd
in achieving sustainable water
management for this state?
The Delta has pretty much always been
surrounded by controversy due ts
status as California's water hu,
but perhaps no issue has been me
divisive than the Delta Tunnel project.
That proposal has not been
presented to the State board.
The Delta Water Master and the e
Water Resources Control Board have an
independent role and really need to weigh.
Those other factors that are in California
law in protecting water quality standards
for all beneficial uses of wate,
The Delta can't be seen as
as an endless supply source,
just as the Colorado can't be
seen as an endless supply sourc.
So the state board when presentd
with a proposal,
if they are presented with a proposal
for a tunnel or other conveyanc.
Would evaluate a project based n
all of those concerns about the
multiple uses of water throughot
the delta through the lens realy
as we've been talking about thrh
the lens of water quality.
And and that's fundamentally the
issue that I think unifies both
Delta interests and and frankly
has to bring the state into the
conversation in a broader
sense to really protect these vs
that are fragile in the delta ad
that are increasingly fragile.
At a time of climate
change, when we're going to
experience longer droughts and d
flashier, bigger storm winters
just like this past one, I
also asked Jay about something e
hear a lot about wasting water.
I think you're going to find tht
wasting water is a is a loaded m
that may affect the beholder's interest.
And that was Jay Ziegler,
the Delta water master for
the state of California.
Now again that you're going to r
more from Jay in an upcoming special,
A water wasted here on ABC10.
Here's a quick preview of that,
which you can look forward to
happening later this month.
If it's not working,
show me the proof I often when
people are tearing their hair n,
I was terrible. We manage water
horribly and we no, we don't.
Right now we are in the place
where we are just supremely bou.
To knowing every water,
we're often so focused on our
engineered infrastructure abovee
surface that we forget to utilie
effectively the natural infrastructure.
And what we need to be able to s
capture water when it's availab,
move it and store it so that we
can have water supply throughou.
And this year,
if we've been able to have the a
conveyance project online in January,
we would have captured another
228,000 acre feet of water.
And that's enough to feed
about 2.3 million people,
or about 800,000 households.