This is a 1997 BMW M3.
More specifically, it's my BMW ,
which means I've rebuilt
the engine for more power,
and I'm currently yanking out te
automatic transmission and replacing it
with a manual transmission for more fun.
For me, driving cars is a passi.
It's where I feel most free.
But CO2 emissions from
transportation here in the US ae
a major factor in climate chang,
and climate change is playing a
big role in our fire season here
in the Inland Northwest. The
trends over the last 10 years he
been towards more severe fire seasons
due to hotter and drier summers.
That's meteorologist Matt Deer with the
Washington Department of Natural Resources.
When we talk average fire season now,
it means something drastically different
than it did, say, 10 years ago.
Hotter, drier summers dry
out vegetation like trees,
brush or even grass.
And that allows things to ignite faster and
fires to grow more rapidly and burn hotter,
becoming more devastating.
Last year felt like a calm fire season,
especially in recent memory,
but in the big picture.
It really wasn't as calm
as it might have seemed.
In Washington.
We still burned about 170,000 a,
which compared to the last 10 ys
is about 200,000 acres below no.
However, if you look at our avee
acres burned between 1992 and 2,
in that time frame,
we only averaged 140,000 acres a year.
The average fire season now burs
almost double the acres in the state of
Washington then it did say 10 years ago,
and that seems to be a trend
across much of the western US.
And that means it's time to chae
how we think about fire season.
Right now, things are looking g.
Our cool wet spring gave life to
the snowpack in the mountains ad
filled our vegetation with mois,
meaning potential fuels are harder to ignite
and it's harder to get those fires to spread.
For now, forecast indicate a bew
average start to fire season.
Thanks to our cool wet spring,
it looks like we're pretty good
through the start of summer.
In general,
our summers have been hotter and drier.
Meaning our fuels like grass,
trees or brush dry out and that
makes them more prone to burnin.
So overall,
a fire that might start in a
calm season and just fizzle out
has the ability to grow faster,
spread quicker and burn hotter,
becoming much more devastating.
This year looks to be no exceptn
to our recent pattern.
We currently sit under an El Nino watch,
with the 60% chance of an
El Nino forming by July.
What that would mean is an even hotter,
even drier summer than what
has become our new norm.
Because of that forecast,
long range outlooks put the possibility
of more devastating wildfires
occurring later on this summer.
It essentially boils down
to what starts the fires.
Historically,
lightning is responsible for sof
our biggest wildfires in the Northwest.
Lightning strikes and remote
areas can spark fires that
are hard for crews to access,
allowing the fires to grow more freely
as storm activity calms later in summer.
It's all on us.
Our primary ignition source of
wildfires in the Northwest is humans.
That includes things like campf,
fireworks.
Power lines, cigarettes,
tow chains on trucks, and a whole lot more.
There's no magic crystal ball tt
can predict where our fires will be or
how many we'll see in a given season.
But what we do know is that
fire season is getting worse,
and that is thanks to our hotte,
drier summers across the Northw.
It boils down to fire weather days hot.
Dry,
windy conditions are when we see most
fire ignitions and most rapid fire growth.
By exercising caution on
extreme fire danger days,
we can make a difference,
Creme 2 viewer Nat asks.
Will all the heavy snow we've gn
this winter help prevent the wildfires
from getting so bad this summer?
Our sources to verify this
question are Nick Bond,
a research scientist at the
University of Washington who alo
serves as the state climatologi,
and Matthew Dear,
a meteorologist for the Washingn
Department of Natural Resources.
First, let's start with the snowpack.
It was a good snow year
in the Inland Northwest,
with several of our local ski
resorts extending their seasons
because the snow just kept fall.
Both deer and bonsai Washington
finished the season with a sligy
higher than average snowpack
for most regions in the state.
Does an above average
snowpack translate into a more r
less severe fire season? Right.
So yeah, you're right on point.
We have had pretty good snowpack
across Washington this year,
including in the the Columbia Mountains,
the Northern Rockies out towards Spokane.
However, a snowpack doesn't necessarily
correlate directly with fire se,
Deer says. The heavy snow is certainly
good for things like replenishig
reservoirs and our streams and rivers,
but it's not the best predictorr
how severe our fire season will.
A better predictor the
temperatures we see in June,
July, August and September.
So while good snowpack is is rey
beneficial for the ecosystem,
it's beneficial for the streams
and the hydrology of the area.
It doesn't really correlate that
much with how many acres we're
going to burn in the summer.
State climatologist Nick Bond agrees.
High heat, low humidity and of course the
wind are the biggest drivers of wildfires,
and predicting those factors wes
and months in advance with any d
of accuracy certainly isn't eas.
How the fire season is going to
play out is really dependent.
On the weather going ahead and
of course our crystal ball is a
little bit murky in that regard.
But to get an idea of what we can expect,
Bond and Deer look at historical
trends and both say the data ist
great news for wildfire potenti.
The odds are, again, we're just
going to be a little bit on the,
warm side and I'm just hoping that we
don't have any devastating heat waves.
Or any combination of heat and d
so we can verify. No, our snowpk
is not a good indicator for howr
wildfire season will play out. Rather,
our summer heat is a better predictor.
If you have a story you'd like us to verify,
e-mail them to us at verify@crem.com.
Wildfires and smoky skies are
synonymous with the Inland Nortt
summer weather just as much.
As hot and dry days are so I'm
going to go into more detail of
not only our summer forecast,
but even our smoke forecast and
the details that could influence
it for this upcoming summer.
So with that, we have to start with El Nino.
A lot of hype around it returnig
by the summer, most likely by J,
and continuing to strengthen
throughout the rest of the year.
And yes, El Nino can increase sr
heat by quite a lot, even globa.
But El Nino is more of a winter
time influencer than the summer,
but we do still see the influene
of it for the upcoming months h.
So our summer forecast for the Inland
Northwest breaks down like this.
We will likely be having above
average temperatures,
so the next three to four months
and we are favoring below averae
precipitation and rainfall.
So hot and dry,
but probably even more so for 2.
Now what about the smoke part
of the forecast?
So this is a little bit more tr.
First of all, the last six year,
five of the last six years,
have had three to seven days of unhealthy
air quality in the Spokane area,
including in 2020 when it
was a week straight of such,
including a couple hazardous air
quality days and the worst recod
air quality in Spokane's histor.
So there's no indication that
that will change.
But smoke can come from
anywhere across the West Coast.
From the South,
NW or even E It all depends on t
direction the wind is blowing.
So we do look at the Regional Wildfire
Outlook to see where the smoke
might more likely be coming fro.
In California,
it's less likely with a below average
wildfire season expected due toe
record setting and historic snok
in the Sierra Nevadas from this past winter.
Meanwhile,
most of Canada is expecting an
above average wildfire season,
and that's already in play this.
Wildfires are already burning of
control in Alberta and Saskatch,
and those fires already producing some hazy
and smoky skies across the northern US.
It all just depends on what
direction the wind is blowing.
If it's more of a westerly wind,
we'll see that smoke travel
a lot more easterly.
But if it comes out of the north and east,
it would be heading in our diren
and that's just one example already this
early in the season of what is to come.
So we will have to take it by a
case by case basis in terms of e
smoke and it all just depends on
where the fires are burning andt
direction the wind is coming fr.