I'm WS9, Weather Watch
meteorologist Topper shot.
We've got a lot going on in the tropics,
so we have Tropical Depression Nine,
which more than likely will
become Tropical Storm Ian.
Not her mean, Ian.
Over the weekend, that's Fiona headed
toward the Canadian Maritimes.
And we'll move out to the east and we've got,
you know, a couple of things.
We've got Gastone and we've
got another disturbance here.
And then this is her mean.
So her mean actually beat the
other depression to the punch and
became a tropical storm first.
OK. So as.
Fiona heads toward the Canadian Maritimes.
I mean, the good news is the
water temperatures are cooler,
but the bad news is,
you know,
not too far off shore water
temperatures are still 79 degrees,
so it's going to have a pretty good
source of moisture for a while until
it gets a little closer to Halifax.
Now in terms of the,
you know,
the wave heights still 404045 feet
and that's and it's destined to still
produce waves that high as it makes
landfall in the Canadian Maritimes.
Could be a pretty big storm.
So because of that.
Of course they have hurricane warnings out,
tropical storm warnings out.
This is Saturday morning.
It's moving across just kind of,
it's the east of Halifax,
and then it kind of moves
in between Halifax and St.
John's.
And this is, you know,
even Sunday morning at 2:00 o'clock,
it's going to be a cold core storm, no doubt.
But winds are still 65 mph,
and even Saturday afternoon,
winds are still 80 mph.
So probably a cold core hurricane by then,
but still a very,
very strong storm and still capable
of setting the record low pressure
for the Canadian Maritimes.
We will see. Keep an eye on that.
Here are the here are the warnings of
the red is hurricane warnings and the
yellow or tropical storm warnings.
And that looks like that's about where
they should be given the track of the storm.
All right.
Now we will talk about this other system,
which is going to become Ian.
Here's the Spaghetti plot again,
a little closer together. OK.
They were really fanned out
a couple days ago.
One still takes the storm over
the southern tip of Florida.
The bulk of the models, though.
And remember, each line is a computer model.
Takes it toward Tampa. It's hard to.
Tampa rarely gets a direct hit.
But even if it doesn't get a direct hit,
we're looking at a pretty intense storm,
especially if it sits just
to the West of Tampa,
and Tampa ends up with the
northeast quadrant over, over.
That would be devastating.
So here are the computer models.
The yellow is the American model.
Red is the European model.
That is Monday.
So they're pretty close there, OK.
By Tuesday,
they're pretty close,
although European model has
definitely been favoring an
easterly track really all week.
By the time we get to say Wednesday,
European model says it's going
across Florida. Your GFS says,
wait a minute, it's still offshore,
it's not make landfall yet by Thursday.
Now we have the European taking
it across back into the Atlantic
and the GFS still has it in,
in the Northeast Gulf of
Mexico has a pretty big storm.
That's a Thursday,
so we will keep you posted.
Again, the storm is going to develop,
but the Devils in the details.
Right now,
Hurricane Center is favoring a a path
kind of over western Cuba and then
curving it back toward Tampa as a cat three.
That's by Wednesday night at 10:00 o'clock,
so winds could be 111.
Ohh, should be 115.
Cat Three is 111 or or higher.
So that would be our second
major storm of the season.
And again,
that is 10:00 o'clock on Wednesday night.
So this could be a big storm again.
We're gonna see just what track it
takes and it'll come into better focus
as we get once with storm develops and
once it starts to track to the north.
So here's the category 3111 to 129,
OK.
So it's it's going to be a a low
end cat three and remember you know
Fiona was a cat four with wins 1:30
and gusts to one at 60. OK, now.
The names, so we're at Hermine.
So the next one in Q is going to
be in that should be the storm that
ends up in the Gulf of Mexico.
Now the forecast, you know,
forecast was 14 to 20 named storms,
14 is average,
6 to 10 of those were forecast to
become a hurricane and three to five
of those were forecast to become major.
So 111 or higher in terms of wind speed,
three is average and seven
is average for a hurricane.
So we are cooking so to speak.
The tropics don't think we're
gonna don't think we're gonna
make all of those numbers.
But numbers don't matter,
just matters if one makes landfall
in the US and we are concerned about
what will become Hurricane Ian.