During the early days of 2022, there was only talk of one thing: The Russians are coming!
The buildup on the Ukrainian border seemed to make it clear that the invasion would only
be a matter of time.
Nevertheless, at the time, the expectations of virtually everyone were for a triumphant
ride.
Do you remember?
(15 February 2022: U.S. Arms Sent to Ukraine Would Blunt but Not Stop a Russian Invasion.
The Russian Army could quickly overwhelm the Ukrainian military, even one that is backed
by the United States and its European allies.
– NYTimes)
(5 January 2022: Ukraine's Army Is Underfunded, Outgunned and Not Ready to Stop a Russian
Invasion.
– Bloomberg)
These are just two examples of what seemed to be the general consensus: barring a major
surprise, the Ukrainian armed forces had no chance against Russia's gigantic and powerful
war machine.
At that time, there was talk of things like evacuating Zelenskiy or launching a guerrilla
war....
However, the Ukrainians held on.
And they did so against all odds.
For months and months Ukrainians have seen their towns, villages and fields being razed
to the ground.
Casualties, for their part, number in the tens of thousands.
The Russians have destroyed power plants, thousands of schools, hundreds of hospitals
and all kinds of infrastructure.
To give you an idea, in April 2023 the estimate of direct damage caused by the war already
exceeded $150 billion.
Ukrainians have had to face bombs, cold and darkness.
And yet they have held on.
And not only that.
Now they have even regained the initiative...
Let's just say that the Ukrainians were not willing to lose this war under any circumstances
and now they want to win it.
The question, the big question that we still haven't answered is: Why do Ukrainians still
want to fight?
Well, we are going to take a look at that right now, here, on VisualPolitik.
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And now...
Let's get started.
I think that if there is one thing we can all agree on, it is the great merit of the
Ukrainian resistance.
Okay we now know that the Russian military and armaments had more holes in them than
a Swiss cheese, okay we now know that the enormous corruption has sucked it dry.
And okay we have all seen the huge flows of arms that have come into Ukraine from its
Western allies.
But still, to have resisted against an army superior in numbers, in weapons, in strength,
in area, in artillery and in practically any field is something that has a whole lot of
merit.
Let's put ourselves in their shoes, it's not easy to watch the Russian bear pounce on you
and keep the knife between your teeth...
And yet, that's exactly what the Ukrainians have done.
Not surprisingly, the price has been very high...
And it will get even higher.
In Ukraine, destruction, annihilation and casualties are already daily occurrences.
Do you remember the images left by the blowing up of the Nova Kakhovka dam?
Well, just like that.
Even so, despite this, polls say that the vast majority of Ukrainians want to fight
to the end.
They want to drive the Russians out of their country, whatever it takes.
You don't believe me?
Do you think I'm exaggerating?
Well, take a look:
(More than 80% of Ukrainians oppose territorial concessions, even at the risk of a protracted
war.
– Yahoo News)
But how is it possible that, with everything against them, they did not decide to give
up when the invasion began?
Why don't they do it now?
Why on earth do the Ukrainians want to keep fighting?
Why are so many young people willing to go all the way?
Well VisualPolitik viewers, the Ukrainian resistance has several ingredients that have
been simmering.
And do you know what?
To understand the first of them we have to go back to the beginning of the 20th century.
Specifically, to October 1917, when the revolution broke out in the Russian Empire and then all
hell broke loose...
Also in Ukraine, which after proclaiming itself as an independent republic of Russia suffered
a civil war between two sides:
The Ukrainian People's Republic, assisted by Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire,
on the one side, and the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, supported by the Bolsheviks,
on the other.
In the end it was the latter who won the day and in 1922 Ukraine joined Russia, Belarus
and South Caucasus to form the USSR, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
A union that time proved to be an absolute disaster.
By the 1930s, the benefits of having been integrated into the Soviet Union had practically
disappeared.
Stalin's agrarian policy based on land confiscation and collectivization affected the territory
that was known as "the breadbasket of the USSR" like no other.
Peasants who tried to keep their land were repressed, deported to concentration camps
and even executed.
The result?
Between 3.5 and 8 million Ukrainians starved to death.
At best, we are talking about 10% of the Ukrainian population starving to death because of decisions
made in Moscow.
It was what has subsequently become known as "Holodomor".
But that was only the beginning.
During the Stalinist years the Supreme Soviet actively promoted the Russification of Ukraine.
This meant restricting and even suppressing the use of Ukrainian and any other aspect
of local culture.
Of course, all this meant much more repression.
After Stalin, the Ukrainians had a brief respite during Nikita Khrushchev's time at the head
of the Red Empire, but then Moscow went back to the same strategy.
To top it all off, after years of poverty and heavy-handedness, in 1986 there was the
Chernobyl disaster which was, once again, terribly mismanaged by the Soviet leadership
in Moscow.
So, you see...
For decades Moscow, and therefore Russia and Russians by extension, did not exactly accumulate
many points to win the hearts of Ukrainians.
And perhaps that is why, after perestroika and the collapse of the USSR in October 1991,
they had very clear goals: they wanted to become an independent country again.
And as we say around here, no sooner said than done.
Ukrainians voted in a referendum and independence won by an overwhelming majority.
Check it out.
And, take note, because as you can see, independence won in all regions of the country...
It won by an overwhelming majority in the Donbass and also won in Crimea and in Sevastopol.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, because independence did not bring Moscow's tentacles
and influence to an end.
Quite the contrary.
(MISSING THE TRAIN TO BRUSSELS)
In virtually all post-Soviet countries the transition away from communism was terribly
difficult.
Everything had to be done from scratch.
And naturally things were no different in Ukraine.
The public sector was a mess, the gigantic State apparatus and the suffocating dependence
on Moscow was everywhere.
And countries had to rebuild from top to bottom in the midst of a brutal economic crisis.
To give you an idea, between 1991 and 1998 Ukraine's economy collapsed by more than 60%.
In fact, it did not begin to show signs of improvement until the arrival of the new century...
But then, a few years later, the great financial crisis arrived and everything went, once again,
down the drain.
A disaster.
The country seemed doomed never to be able to escape from the pit.
Nevertheless, after the great crisis of 2008 something changed, suddenly the possibility
of signing an Association Agreement with the European Union arose.
And do you know what this meant?
Access to the common market could change everything!
Suddenly, Ukrainian products could flow westward like there was no tomorrow.
What’s more, European investments could help modernize the country.
Even so, contain your euphoria because there was one problem and not just a small one.
Can you guess what?
3,2,1...
Exactly!
Moscow.
Negotiations with the European Union started off at full steam ahead.
However, just when they seemed to be on the verge of reaching a successful conclusion...
they suddenly went completely off the rails.
President Viktor Yanukovych, who had promised to move this agreement forward, froze the
process.
Not surprisingly, Russia was behind this move.
(21 November 2013: Ukraine drops plan to go West, turns East.
Yanukovich's prime minister issued the dramatic order to suspend the process in the interests
of "national security" and renew "active dialogue" with Moscow.
– Reuters)
The idea that the ex-Soviet republics were going around flirting with the West was something
Putin was unwilling to countenance.
He resented it more than Dracula resented garlic for breakfast.
So Yanukovych and all Ukrainians would have to surrender to his power.
The problem, the big problem VisualPolitik community, is that in 2013, just as in 2022,
the Russian president did not estimate well how Ukrainians would feel about being pushed
around.
And then disaster struck...
Listen up!
(THE STUBBORN HOPE)
On 22 November, 2013, as soon as the freezing of the agreement with the European Union was
announced, Kyiv's Independence Square, usually known as Maidan, began to heat up.
Political parties, social media platforms, activists...
Suddenly, this square became the epicenter of a gigantic anti-government protest with
thousands and thousands of people.
All the opposition to Yanukovych and his ties with Moscow were represented in this place.
It was exactly the same place where in 2004 the orange revolution against electoral theft
had taken place to make Yanukovich himself president to the detriment of his pro-European
opponent Viktor Yushchenko, who, by the way, was poisoned during the election campaign
of the same year.
Who poisoned him?
It has not been possible to determine, but you can guess where all suspicions are directed...
In this case, as in so many others, all roads lead to Moscow.
But let's not get sidetracked.
The situation escalated rapidly.
And in January 2014 the government tried to evict the protesters from the square through
a harsh repression that left dozens dead and wounded.
At that time the protesters organized themselves by creating Defense Units.
Ukraine was on the brink of the abyss...
Fortunately, everything ended with the resignation and flight from the country of President Yanukovych.
Which, at the same time, meant a heavy defeat for Moscow.
But...
Wait a minute, was everything really over?
Of course not...
Vladimir Putin was not going to stand idly by.
I'm sure you all remember news stories like these:
(1 March 2014: Russian 'invasion' of Crimea fuels fears of Ukraine conflict.
– The Guardian)
(7 March 2014: 21 Times Journalists Have Confirmed Masked Troops in Crimea Are Russian.
– Mashable)
Indeed.
Putin put his foot down and decided to counterattack.
He did so by first invading and then annexing the Ukrainian province of Crimea.
At the same time he fueled a civil war in the Donbass, the richest and most developed
region in all of Ukraine.
At that time Ukraine could do practically nothing:
("Only about 50,000 troops could have been deployed when the war in Crimea began in February
2014; but of those, only about 6,000 were combat-ready (...) The Russian operation effectively
ended with two savage defeats of Ukrainian forces."
– Analysis by The Jamestown Foundation, July 2021)
The result?
The loss of Crimea and the proclamation of two new republics – today also annexed by
Russia: the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic.
Two puppet states of Moscow.
And guess what?
This operation was also a real disaster.
In the new republics, the institutions were assaulted; an ultra-nationalist, ultra-conservative
and ultra-militarized model was imposed.
Many, if not most, of the large companies and productive assets, such as mines and steel
mills, were expropriated or put at the disposal of oligarchs friendly to Moscow.
The result?
Economic activity collapsed and jobs disappeared.
It is estimated that about half, that is fifty percent of the entire population, packed their
bags and left for Russia, the rest of Europe and, above all, the rest of Ukraine...
Particularly to nearby regions such as Kharkiv.
As you can imagine, Moscow does not exactly instil positive emotions in all these people
either.
Look at what one writer in the region was saying at the end of 2021:
("They have managed to rebuild a Soviet system in the occupied territories, and not the Soviet
system of the 1960s and 1970s, but the Soviet system of the 1930s and 1940s, with dungeons,
with torture chambers, a system where lives are ruined if you dare to write or say anything
negative about these republics and their authorities."
– Stanislav Aseev, novelist and journalist from Donetsk)
And that is not all.
The Russian intervention forced Ukraine to rebuild its armed forces.
In other words, because of Russia, since the beginning of 2014, the country that was the
poorest in Europe had to more than double its military spending.
Of course, time proved them right.
That spending was much needed.
The good news for Ukraine was that international aid also started to arrive.
Check it out.
(24 February 2015: UK military training in Ukraine: symbolic move that risks Russian
ire.
– The Guardian)
(24 November 2015: US Troops Begin Training Ukrainian Regular Forces.
– DefenseNews)
And so, little by little it was that Ukraine, and particularly Ukrainians were preparing
for war...
Right up until 24 February 2022 when Putin ultimately unleashed his firestorm.
As we all know, a lot of time has passed since then and the war not only continues, but it
is now the Ukrainians themselves who are pushing the initiative.
But what really explains their enormous tenacity?
Well, let's do a little exercise.
Let's imagine for a moment that we go back to 25 February 2022, we are Ukrainians and
we are young.
The Russian invasion has just begun.
Missiles are falling on Ukraine, as Putin's hordes try to reach the country's major cities,
including the capital.
We were born in an independent Ukraine where, nevertheless, Moscow's tentacles reach everywhere.
Your grandparents have told you about the Holodomor and the relatives they lost because
of Moscow.
They have also told you about how the Soviet Union tried to Russianize Ukraine...
Your parents have told you about how difficult their life was, about the repression and probably
also about the political police, the dreaded KGB.
You've read about the Chernobyl disaster.
You have lived through Moscow's attempt to have your country cut its ties with the West
and the subsequent Euromaidan revolution.
You have known the horror of the 2014 war and you may know people who died, who were
victims or who were mobilized during that war.
Despite everything, for the past few years you have dreamed of Ukraine modernizing and
embracing the wealthier and more prosperous countries of Europe, but now, instead, you
are once again witnessing how the Russian government continues to destroy and annihilate
your country with bombs, missiles, tanks and soldiers.
So the question many Ukrainians asked and still ask themselves is, how could we not
fight?
And so the majority of Ukrainians have come to a very clear conclusion: either they defeat
Russia once and for all or they will never be able to have a normal, prosperous and peaceful
country.
Russia has become their worst nightmare.
On the other hand, if they do succeed, if they manage to defeat Russia, Ukraine could
join the European Union and NATO within a few years and thus try to emulate the impressive
development of countries such as Poland or the Baltic republics.
And that, that's exactly what explains the news item we saw earlier:
(Over 80% of Ukrainians oppose territorial concessions, even at risk of protracted war.
– Yahoo News)
As you can see from the results of this survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute
of Sociology, Ukrainians are mostly willing to continue fighting to regain their territory.
As you can see, it is, so to speak, an all-or-nothing bet.
The question is, will they succeed, will they defeat Russia, if you were Ukrainian how would
you have reacted to the Russian invasion?
Leave us your impressions in the comments and, as always, let's open a debate.
And now if you found this video interesting don't forget to like it.
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