I am sure that the vast majority of you have heard
that the Catholic Church is in the doldrums. That it is too archaic,
that it has fallen out of favor and that Islam is eating away at it all over the world.
Well, we cannot say that this is completely false in the case, for example, of Europe,
historically the great bastion of this religion. Yes, it is true, Catholicism is still
very important in old Europe. Just take a look at this map:
As you can see, in countries like Poland and Croatia, more than 80%
of their populations consider themselves Catholic. And in countries like Italy,
Spain and France this percentage exceeds 60%. Of course, the percentage of practicing Catholics
is much smaller. For example, in Spain we are talking about less than 19% of the population.
Be that as it may, Europe is no longer the epicenter of world Catholicism.
As the world's population has grown, it has gone from housing 66% of the world's
entire Catholic population in 1910 to only 25% a hundred years later. And this is a
trend that is not likely to stop. Look, for example, at this graph.
In Spain, one of the most historically Catholic countries in Europe, the trend is very clear:
the younger they are, the fewer the believers.
This is not only true for Catholics, but for all religious denominations.
It is not surprising, therefore, that the Holy See is concerned about the future of Catholicism
in Europe and, of course, in the rest of the world. If it runs out of faithful followers, it
will no longer have a reason to exist. In business terms, it will have to pull down the shutters.
Just a side note here. We are VisualPolitik, this is not a video about faith,
nor is it about the pros and cons of any religious order. Our objective is
to analyze what is happening with one of the major religions in the world, to investigate
its future and to discover what political repercussions all these changes may have.
Having said that, and as a side note, never confuse the Holy See
with the Vatican City. We have already explained the difference between the two on this channel,
and it could be summarized like this: ("The expression Holy See refers to the whole
constituted by the authority, jurisdiction and sovereignty vested in the pope and his successors
to lead the Catholic Church throughout the world" – Sara Susana Pozos Bravo, PhD in International
Relations, European Union and Globalization from the Complutense University of Madrid, 2017)
And, the Vatican City is basically a State that was created in 1929 to give
a territorial identity to the Holy See, which, in addition, has facilitated it to establish
relations with other countries and to be present in international organizations, such as the UN.
And, you may be wondering: so who is in charge here? Well, it is true, the Pope is the head
of the Holy See, and therefore he is also the head of the Vatican and of the Catholic Church.
But do you think he alone can run the whole thing? Not at all. That is why he relies so
much on the civil service of the pontificate, as well as on the famous Roman Curia. And what
exactly is this that sounds so elegant? Well, it’s basically a collection of Congregations,
tribunals, Pontifical Councils and, most important of all, the Secretary of State.
The Secretary of State is crucial for the image and relations of the Holy See around the globe,
because it is basically in charge of its foreign policy. And,
at a time when the Catholic Church does not seem to be going through its greatest times,
the Pope will need a strong Secretary of State. So what is the Vatican doing to regain the
influence of the Holy See in the world? What is the future of Catholicism? What is happening to
Vatican diplomacy? Is it possible that Europe is being replaced by another region as the
true epicenter of the Catholic Church? VisualPolitik viewers, today we are going
to answer these questions, but first let's take a look at some history.
(THE MOTHER OF ALL DIPLOMACY)
Which country do you think was the first to weave a real diplomatic policy? I am
sure many of you are thinking of a European country like England or France. Or perhaps
even a historic Asian power like China. Well... Big mistake. Modern diplomacy did
not begin with any State, but rather with the Holy See itself. To give you an idea, it is
estimated that it began to maintain diplomatic relations between the fourth and fifth centuries.
And not only that, do you know who founded the first diplomatic school in the world? That's
right, it was also the Holy See! But this time a little later,
in 1701. That is, when we talk about the Holy See, we are not only talking about the Church,
but also about a historical and powerful political apparatus.
However, the Holy See and its influence in the world has not always been plain sailing, despite
its long and far-reaching experience. Certainly, there have been plenty of forgettable moments.
Whether it was the First Council of Nicaea in 325 A.D. or the presence of accredited Apocrisians of
the Holy See at the Imperial Court of Byzantium in 453 A.D., the diplomacy of the Holy See is
considered not only the oldest in the world, but also one of the most powerful and influential.
Nevertheless, the power of the popes and the Holy See has suffered several blows:
from the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, which gave greater power to the European nation-states
and monarchs, to Napoleon Bonaparte's disregard for the powers of the Pope,
to the dissolution of the Papal States in 1870. The Catholic Church has come
to be truly on the ropes when faced with the advancing power of modern States.
In addition, there is also criticism of its inaction at key moments, often limiting itself
to condemnatory statements. This was criticized during the first and second World Wars and now
also during the war in Ukraine. However, the church has also been highly praised for its
role in ending the Cold War, for example, during the papacy of John Paul the Second.
As I was saying, the path of the Holy See has not been a bed of roses. But even so,
they have managed to establish links with the vast majority of the countries of the world.
In fact, there are so many countries in which there are nuncios – Vatican
diplomats – that it is much easier for us to point to the 12 countries with which
it has no established diplomatic relations, either because they are Muslim or communist.
And here we have to take into account that the Holy See has one important advantage:
its diplomacy is based, above all, on its aid networks. Whether it is building hospitals,
schools or soup kitchens, the Catholic Church often replaces what is usually
the responsibility of the State, particularly, of course, in poorer countries. And that often
translates into a lot of social influence. For example, in the capital of Burkina Faso
we find the St. Vincent Mary educational center, which provides education to more
than 400 young girls without resources. Another example can be found in Turkana,
Kenya, where they have built preschools and orphanages, as well as programs to help the sick,
the elderly and the disabled. There are thousands of cases like these all over the world, and this,
not surprisingly, has made the Catholic Church gain a lot of sympathy among the most vulnerable
and, of course, also among the States it helps. And not only that. Then there is also the
mediation capacity of the Holy See. For example, John Paul the Second mediated between Argentina
and Chile to avoid an imminent war over the sovereignty of the Beagle Channel islands. And,
without going any further, Pope Francis mediated between Obama and Raul Castro
to ease tensions between Washington and Havana and to get both governments to
release some prisoners held by the other country. And then there are the campaigns... The Holy See
is involved in many political campaigns at the international level. For example,
to claim freedom of worship, to fight against poverty and now with Pope Francis they are
involved in the fight against climate change. [A real sign of the times.]
But there is certainly one message from Pope Francis that has increased his
likeability exponentially, especially in the developing world. Listen up.
("Do not touch the Democratic Republic of Congo, do not touch Africa. Stop suffocating it, because
Africa is not a mine to be exploited or a land to be plundered. Let Africa be the protagonist of its
own destiny. – Pope Francis in Kinshasa) Exactly. VisualPolitik viewers,
to all of Pope Francis’ statements against consumerism and for the fight against climate
change, now he also adds a clearly ... Anti-Colonial rhetoric. Look at this.
("After political colonialism, an equally enslaving "economic
colonialism" has been unleashed. Thus, this country, abundantly depredated, is
not able to benefit sufficiently from its immense resources").
Now, what if I told you that these words are no coincidence, that this could be the
best asset for the future of the Catholic Church? Surprised? Well, pay very, very close attention.
(THE NEW RELIGIOUS HUB OF CATHOLICISM)
At the beginning of this video we already said that there is a kind
of general feeling that the Catholic Church is not at its best, that it is in the doldrums.
And of course the data show that this is exactly what is happening in Europe. We
have already told you how the old continent has long since ceased to be the region with
the largest number of Catholics. But... let me ask you a question,
can you tell me which is the region with the largest Catholic population in the world? No,
it is not Africa, but Latin America. Some 28% of the 1.36 billion Catholics
on planet Earth live in this region. We are, therefore, talking about 380 million people.
And, when you think of it, considering its colonial past
under the Spanish Empire, that's not unusual. But what if I were to tell you that Catholicism
has stagnated in Latin America? What if I were to tell you that today, the Catholic
Church is focusing all its attention on Africa? And you may be thinking, in Africa? Why is that?
Very simply, the growth rates of the Catholic population in Africa are much higher than in Latin
America and, of course, higher than in Europe. So what is the reason for this growth? Well,
on top of what we have already told you earlier: to the social work carried out by the Catholic
Church on the continent, both by building the schools we have already mentioned in Burkina
Faso and Kenya, as well as hospitals and aid programs for the most disadvantaged.
But take note! To think that this growth is due solely and exclusively to the achievements of
the Catholic Church in sub-Saharan Africa would be a tremendous mistake. There is one absolutely
decisive factor in the expansion of Catholicism in this region. Do you have any idea what it
might be? 3,2,1... Exactly: population growth. As you can see, since 1960, the population on
the African continent has not stopped growing, from a mere 250 million at
that time to more than 1.3 billion today. And that trend is not going to change. The
fertility rate in Africa exceeds four births per woman. That is why the UN is very clear:
by 2050, Africa will have more than 2.4 billion inhabitants, which will
account for 25% of the world's population. Do you realize what this could mean for the
Holy See? Do you realize that this could lead to a huge expansion of Catholicism? Of course,
I’m sure that the projections about the increase of the Christian population
on the continent thrill Pope Francis: And we are only talking about five countries.
According to the Pew Research Center, the number of Christians will double in countries like
Nigeria and triple in countries like Tanzania. These five countries will be among the top 10
countries with the largest Christian populations in the world. And, of course, the dominant
Christian religion will be Catholicism. In other words, given the increase of the
population in Africa and its constant presence there, it is possible that the Catholic Church
will become larger than it has ever been. So, is it in the doldrums? Well, I don't think so.
Are you surprised? You see, sometimes things are not what they seem. Now, the Holy See seems to
have everything in its favor for dominating the religious landscape of the African continent,
but do you think it will have no opposition? Well, as you can imagine, nothing could be
further from the truth. Check it out. (MUSLIM OPPOSITION AND INTERNAL DEMONS)
As in any struggle for power or influence, whenever there is an
emerging player there is also competition. And this is exactly the case for the Holy See
in Africa, as it faces off against the religion with the largest number of followers in the world:
Islam. Fortunately, the Crusades are a thing of the past, so don't expect
any all-out war for control of the faith. However, the Catholic Church is going to have
to face an Islam that is deeply rooted in much of the continent, and a religion which also hopes
to expand and can count on several advantages. Islam is the most professed religion in the world
and the second most professed religion in all of Africa after Christianity,
with nearly 600 million Muslims. And so, as with Catholicism in sub-Saharan Africa,
Islam is also making inroads in this region from North Africa, which is overwhelmingly Muslim.
In this case, the most practiced branch of Islam on the continent is Sufism. We have
already told you on this channel about this branch of Islam, which focuses on spiritual life and the
search for a more mystical relationship with Allah from a much more individual viewpoint.
However, the truth is that Sufism has been losing ground during the 21st century to the
most radical version of Islam: Salafism, which if you remember, defends the purity of the religious
doctrine and the text of the Koran, the Sunna, the Jihad, and the great majority of the Hadith,
which are the messages attributed to Mohammed and which order many aspects of life. The Salafists
reject outright all other religions and even the other branches of Islam itself, such as Sufism.
Of course, this is a great challenge for the Catholic Church. Not so much for the Sufi side,
with which it has a rather theological and argumentative battle to gain more followers,
but above all with the Salafist side. A branch of Islam that
leaves us news headlines like this: (Nigeria suspects Islamic State of
killing 40 in Catholic church. – VoaNews) (Burkina Faso Christians killed in attack on
church. – BBC) Horrific.
Of course, the problems do not only come from outside. The Catholic Church also has to be wary
of a much more orthodox and conservative strand of Catholicism, whose roots run deep in Africa.
Some of its leading exponents, such as the Guinean cardinal, Robert Sarah,
have even equated Daesh with anything that might sound like gender ideology.
Or Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, who went so far as to equate homosexuals with pedophiles. In fact,
this openly anti-homosexual position has recently been transferred to politics and legislation in
a country with a Catholic majority: Uganda. (Uganda anti-homosexuality Bill: Life in prison
for saying you're gay. – BBC) And,
of course, these positions clash head-on with the new trends being
set by Pope Francis in the Holy See: (Pope Francis says laws criminalizing
LGBT people are a "sin" and an injustice) As you can see, the Holy See faces both an
external opposition that, in some cases, is very radical and violent, such as that of the
Salafists, and also an African Catholic Church that is much more orthodox than that of Rome,
which makes it unlikely that we will see, at least for the time being, an African Pope.
But what we will undoubtedly see is the growing influence of the African Catholic
community in the world: accompanied by an enormous demographic growth,
Catholicism continues to grow in that region as nowhere else in the world. For this reason,
although it is losing ground to the secularism of the States and the growing social atheism in
Europe, especially among the younger generations, in Africa the Holy See is finding its new arena.
So, it is unwise to say that the Catholic Church is in the doldrums. It is simply
reorienting itself, and it is quite possible that in a few years we will see a Catholic
Church that is stronger than ever and expanding. But at this point the question is over to you:
do you think that Africa will eventually become the center of world Catholicism? Do
you see a revival of Catholicism in Europe or a revival in South America? Could the
struggle between Catholicism and Islam in Africa have more serious consequences? Will
we ever see an African Pope? You can leave me your answer in the comments. As always,
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