Amna: Finland's president and
prime minister announced today
the country would end its
decades-long neutral status and
seek to join nato.
The full government will make a
formal declaration Sunday.
And its neighbor, Sweden, is
expected to take similar steps
next week.
For many years, Finland has
opted out of defense pacts, even
when the cold war divided east
and west.
In 2017, 22% of finns backed
nato membership.
But Russia's unprovoked war in
Ukraine pushed public support
for the u.s.-led alliance up to
76% this month.
If accepted, Finland and Sweden
would join a cluster of new nato
members in eastern Europe since
1997, just what president Putin
had sought to prevent when he
invaded Ukraine.
Russia has vowed to retaliate,
saying Finland's decision,
quote, definitely posed a threat
to its security.
For more on all of this, we turn
to Eric Edelman, who served as
American ambassador to Finland
during the Clinton
administration.
He was also under secretary of
defense for policy during the
George W. Bush administration.
Welcome to the newshour.
Thank you for joining us.
In terms of strengthening this
defense alliance, tell us about
Finland and Sweden's militaries.
What do they bring to the table?
Eric: Finland and streaming --
Sweden bring geostrategic and
military capability to the
alliance.
Unlike some other of the recent
additions to nato, it is a very
serious law Terry give ability.
They provide strategic
hinterland for the baltic
states, making it easier to
defend them with conventional
means.
And they also provide the
ability to close the Danish
staits, and with Swedish
possession in the baltic, in
case of a conflict with Russia,
to bottle up the Russian baltic
fleet.
In terms of capability, Finland
is able to bring, when fully
mobilized, an army of 280,000 or
so into the field.
It also has a commitment to
total national territorial
defense and can mobilize up to
900,000 if necessary in
extrema's.
And it also brings capability in
the air.
It is flying currently 62 U.S.
F-18 aircraft.
But it has agreed to purchase
f-35 as a 5th generation fighter
as the f-18's age out.
And it has about 1500 auxiliary
pieces.
If we learn anything from the
war in Ukraine, artillery
matters.
Amna: Russian leaders have said
this would inflict serious
damage to the Russian, Finnish
relationship, and pressure would
be forced to take what they call
retaliatory steps if this moves
forward.
What does this mean to you?
Eric: I think so far, it is
really mostly bluster, frankly.
There's certainly an issue here
of imposing costs on Russia by
having Finland and Sweden joined
nato.
But we've had nato troops in the
baltic states, for instance, and
it hasn't led to any particular
military outbreak.
I think this is mostly
jawboning.
Right now the Russians have
their hands full in Ukraine.
Amna: What about that Finnish
defense?
Basically since the cold war
they have had this policy of
nonalignment.
What has there defense strategy
look like?
They have an eight mile -- they
have an 800 mile border with
Russia.
If Russia were to attack, what
would they do?
Eric: Finland is not a signatory
to the landmine convention, and
I think their plan is to cede
that 830-mile border with mines
at the outset of any conflict to
impede any Russian advance, as
with the forests that provide
Finland from Russia.
That is something the Russians
learned about in 1939 in the
winter war when they had a lot
of difficulty moving forces into
Finland.
But Finland operated on the
basis of very close cooperation
with nato since the cold war
ended, maintaining the option
for membership, and now Russia's
actions have led them to seek
that memory ship.
Amna: Officials seem to say this
would happen quickly within a
matter of weeks.
The big question is what kind of
impact, if any, would Sweden and
Finland joining nato have on the
war in Ukraine?
Eric: Well, again, it is kind of
cost imposition for president
Putin, who has said a stance of
late one of the reasons he went
into Ukraine is he did not want
nato military coming closer to
Russia's borders.
Now will be a long an 830-mile
border.
Finland has also supplied it --
also provided military support
for Ukraine.
I would expect that to continue.
Other than that I do not think
there will be an immediate
impact on the war.
Amna: Doesn't mean anything for
Ukraine's future potential
membership in nato?
Eric: I think the fact that a
country that went through the
kind of unprovoked premeditated
aggression that pressure today
has inflicted on Ukraine in the
past, which is Finland in 1939,
1940, and 1944, has the ability
to join nato, should hold out
hope in the long run that
depending on the outcome of the
conflict, at some point in the
future Ukraine might be able to
aspire to nato membership.
Particularly given the military
account they have given
themselves in this fight against
Russia.
Amna: Former U.S. Ambassador to
Finland Eric Edelman joining us
tonight.
Thank you so much.