4-MILLION
4-MILLION PEOPLE ARE EXPECTED TO CALL THE AUSTIN METRO HOME.
SO WHAT WILL THE PEOPLE OF
TOMORROW'S A-T-X LOOK LIKE?
KVUE'S ASHLEY GOUDEAU SHOWS US.
FROM THE WATERLOO SETTLEMENT OF
1835 -- TO THE BUSTLING AUSTIN OF 2019
-- ONE FACT
RINGS TRUE ABOUT THE TEXAS
CAPITOL.
EVERY 20 YEARS -- THE METRO'S
POPULATION
DOUBLES.
POPULATION DOUBLES. "I'VE LONG SAID THAT PEOPLE MOVE
TO AUSTIN FROM ALL OVER THE
PLACE TO BECOME WHO THEY WANT TO
BECOME. AND I STILL SORT OF
BELIEVE THAT."
RYAN ROBINSON IS AUSTIN'S CITY
DEMOGRAPHER.
TASKED WITH STUDYING THE NUMBERS
OF THE PAST -- AND PREDICTING
THE FUTURE.
THE FUTURE.
SO
SO WHAT'S
SO WHAT'S IN STORE FOR AUSTIN IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS? SURPRISINGLY -- THE GROWTH RATE
WILL SLOW DOWN JUST A
BIT.
"WE ACTUALLY THINK WE'RE GOING
TO FALL OFF OF THAT 20-YEAR
DOUBLING RATE, BUT NOT BY MUCH.
SO INSTEAD OF DOUBLING EVERY
20 YEARS, IT MIGHT DOUBLE EVERY
25 OR 28."
SO BY 2040 -- THE POPULATION IN
THE AUSTIN METRO WILL BE
A COUPLE HUNDRED THOUSAND PEOPLE
SHY OF
SHY OF
4-MILLION. AND THE KEY WORD IS METRO. AUSTIN'S IS MADE UP OF FIVE
COUNTIES --
TRAVIS -- WILLIAMSON -- HAYS --
BASTROP AND CALDWELL.
"BY 2040, IT WON'T JUST BE
DOWNTOWN AND THE DOMAIN, BUT
YOU'LL HAVE EIGHT OR NINE BIG,
VIBRANT, SORT OF SATELLITE
CENTERS AROUND THE REGION."
INSTEAD OF JUST A-T-X --
ROBINSON THINKS IT WILL
BE
BE --
BE -- A-T-X-S-A. "BY 2040, WE'LL BE KIND OF ONE BIG INDISTINGUISHABLE, URBAN
MASS."
MASS."
AND
AND WHAT
AND WHAT ABOUT THE PEOPLE? WHAT WILL THE PEOPLE LIVING IN THIS URBAN MASS LOOK
LIKE?
IF WE BREAK IT DOWN BY RACE AND
ETHNICITY -- ROBINSON
PREDICTS THE METRO WILL BE MORE
DIVERSE.
CURRENTLY -- IT'S ABOUT 50-
PERCENT WHITE
34-PERCENT HISPANIC -- 7-
PERCENT BLACK -- 7-PERCENT
ASIAN AND 2-PERCENT MULTI
RACIAL.
BY 2040 -- IT'S EXPECTED TO BE
35-PERCENT WHITE -- 30
PERCENT HISPANIC -- 15 PERCENT
BLACK -- 15 PERCENT
ASIAN AND 5 PERCENT MULTI
RACIAL.
BUT THAT'S NOT THE CASE FOR THE
AUSTIN CITY LIMITS -- AND
THE 15 ZIP CODES THAT MAKE UP
THE CITY'S URBAN
CORE.
"THAT'S BECOMING LESS DIVERSE.
AND THAT'S BECAUSE ITS BECOME SO
MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE."
"EVEN THOUGH THE CITY IS VERY
INTERESTED IN CRAFTING NEW
HOUSING POLICY AND INCREASING
OUR HOUSING CAPACITY AND
BRINGING PEOPLE BACK IN , WE ARE
COMPETING WITH LAND VALUE. AND
LAND INSIDE THE CITY OF AUSTIN
IS GOING TO BE MORE EXPENSIVE
THAN IT
IS IN KYLE OR BUDA OR EAST ROUND
ROCK OR LEANDER."
THE
THE PEOPLE LIVING IN THE MORE EXPENSIVE AUSTIN OF 2040 WILL BE OLDER --
COMPARED TO TODAY'S YOUNGER
POPULATION.
"MEDIAN AGE IS ABOUT 32, 32 AND
A HALF. AND BOY IS THAT GOING TO
CHANGE!"
YOUNGER BABY BOOMERS AND OLDER
GEN X'ERS ARE
MOVING TO AUSTIN.
IN FACT -- RECENT STUDIES SHOW
ALMOST ONE
THIRD OF DOWNTOWN HOUSEHOLDS ARE
OCCUPIED BY BOOMERS AND X'ERS.
"BY 2040, I THINK THAT WE COULD
HAVE 20 PERCENT OF OUR
POPULATION OLDER THAN 65."
A TREND CALLED THE "SILVER
TSUNAMI".
"I THINK THAT WHAT IT MEANS TO
RETIRE IS CHANGING. I DON'T
THINK THAT PEOPLE WILL BE ABLE
TO A-AFFORD OR EVEN BE
INTERESTED IN
FULLY RETIRING. THEY'RE GOING TO
WANT TO SORT OF STAY IN THE
GAME.
AND IF THAT'S TRUE, PLACES LIKE
AUSTIN WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ATTRACTIVE FOR
RETIREES." AND A BIT LESS ATTRACTIVE FOR FAMILIES. MORE FAMILIES ARE ALREADY
CHOOSING TO LIVE IN THE
SUBURBS --
THERE ARE ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS
IN AUSTIN
WITH FEW -- TO NO KIDS.
AND EXPERTS PREDICT THAT TREND
WILL CONTINUE.
BUT THERE IS A FACTOR THAT COULD
CHANGE THAT.
"MILLENNIALS. MILLENNIALS HAVE
SHOWN IN STUDY AFTER STUDY TO
GREATLY PREFER AN URBAN
LOCATION, RIGHT. WILL THEY STILL
DO
DO
THAT
THAT WHEN
THAT WHEN THEY BEGIN TO HAVE CHILDREN? I THINK THAT, I THINK YOU'LL SEE SOME OF THAT. BUT I
ALSO THINK SOME MILLENNIALS WILL
GO TO THE SUBURBS AS WELL."
THE NEXT 20 YEARS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY BRING CHANGE
TO AUSTIN.
BUT ROBINSON BELIEVES THE THING
THAT'S MADE THE
CAPITOL CITY SPECIAL FOR THE 60
YEARS HE'S BEEN HERE
-- IS WHAT WILL KEEP IT SPECIAL
IN 2040 AND BEYOND.
THE PEOPLE.
"IT'S A PLACE WHERE PEOPLE FEEL
FREE TO BE CREATIVE, FEEL,
THEY FEEL FREE TO FOLLOW THEIR
OWN RELIGION, TO LOVE WHO THEY
WANT TO LOVE AND THAT MIGHT
SOUND KIND OF CORNY BUT I, I
REALLY
THINK AUSTIN IS THAT PLACE."
THE PLACE SO MANY PROUD TO CALL
HOME.
HOME.