Is Russia going to start using nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
That's a question that a lot of people are asking right now after Russian President Vladimir
Putin announced that Russia would be suspending its nuclear weapons treaty with the US.
That may sound pretty ominous but what does it actually mean?
The New START treaty was signed by Russia and the US in 2010.
It's main purpose is to limit the number of nuclear warheads that each country is allowed
to deploy.
‘Deploy’ basically means having the warheads out in position and ready to go.
It's a sort of a successor treaty, a follow-on treaty, to a number of Cold War treaties,
that tried to put limits on the nuclear arms race.
More than 90% of the world's nuclear warheads are owned by Russia and the US but only a
small fraction of those are actually active and deployed.
The treaty caps deployed warheads at 1550, which might sound like a lot, but is actually
far fewer than what was active during the Cold War.
Another key part of the treaty is that it allows for 18 on-site inspections every year,
which basically allows both countries to keep an eye on the other to make sure they're following
the rules.
The thing is, this part of the treaty hadn't really been working as intended for the past
couple of years.
There hasn't been very close compliance with it over the last few years anyway.
The inspections that were supposed to happen weren't happening because of COVID and then
because the Russians wouldn't allow it.
Meanwhile, Russia said that it was being blocked from making inspections because various sanctions
were blocking its inspectors from getting visas and being able to travel to the US.
So, the suspension of this treaty didn’t exactly come as a big surprise to a lot of
experts.
In fact, some were actually expecting the US to be the first ones to pull out.
There was a strong indication that the Americans will be the first to pull the plug.
The question that a lot of people are asking now, is: Does this mean that Russia, or even
the US, are going to start using nuclear weapons?
According to a wide range of experts, at this stage, it is very, very unlikely and also
that’s not really what this move to suspend the treaty is trying to achieve.
I don't think the Russians announcing formally that they're no longer going to participate
in this treaty really makes much of a difference to whether Russia considers using nuclear
weapons in Ukraine or not.
Either there is an incentive to do so or there isn't.
And right now there really isn't an incentive for either side to start using nuclear weapons.
Both sides are well aware of the absolute devastation that would be caused by nuclear
war.
What Putin said about the agreement with the United States does not indicate at all that
nuclear weapons will be used.
Now, there are some people that argue that Putin is irrational or delusional and that
he might not care about the risks or impacts of nuclear war, but, the flip side to that
argument, is that there's a big difference pushing propaganda in public and genuinely
dismissing the reality of nuclear war.
The word that is often used, “he is irrational”, “he's is delusional,” and “he'll push
the red button just because he can”.
This is not the situation that I observe, and the majority of the Russians see.
He is fully aware of the horrific consequences of using nuclear weapons, even tactical, because
it can very easily escalate into an all-out nuclear confrontation, which will put an end
to the civilisation as we know it.
Even if we disregard all of that, using nuclear weapons would still be a huge strategic risk
from Russia's perspective because it could also easily turn its war in Ukraine into a
direct war with the entirety of NATO.
And despite the fact that Putin continues to tell the public that Russia is, pretty
much, already at war with NATO, Putin is aware that there's a big difference between NATO
supplying Ukraine with military aid and having to directly fight the combined military forces
of NATO.
The red button will be pushed only when the very existence of the country or the political
system of the country or thousands, upon thousands of Russian lives are at stake.
It will be the last resort.
That's one of the reasons why some of the military backing by the West, the backing
of Ukraine, has been limited in certain areas, because they've been trying to signal to Russia,
that they understand the risks, the escalation risks here, and that they are not trying to
sort of push the Russians into a corner where they feel like they have no other choice.
So, what is this treaty suspension actually about?
According to a lot of experts, it's basically just diplomatic negotiating tactics.
There is no expectation or interpretation inside Russia, among the military, political,
security intellectuals, that this is a challenge to the West, like a direct threat, that the
nuclear war is coming, or even that the new round of a nuclear arms race is now upon us.
No, it's just a pretty blunt tactic to force the United States to meet Russia halfway.
Both countries have signalled that they haven't been happy with how the other country has
been approaching the treaty.
So, suspending the deal is seen by some as a way to force both sides to come back to
the negotiating table.
There's also the argument that this is a way for Russia to give the United States another
reason to question its ongoing support of Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine is going very badly for Russia and he doesn't have many levers to
pull, he hasn't got much leverage, and he's looking for other ways to try and pressure
the United States into backing off over this conflict and basically saying, if you care
about the future of arms control, if you care about this treaty, you need to back off over
Ukraine.
The final question here, is: what happens next?
One of the big fears, if the treaty does end getting scrapped and not replaced, is that
both countries will start making and deploying more nuclear warheads.
The potential is for a new round of the nuclear arms race as a result of Russia's actions
But, again, that doesn't mean that that's what Russia wants, because if another arms
race did kick off, Russia simply wouldn't be able to financially keep up with the United
States.
Overall, this announcement obviously isn't great news for the future of nuclear arms
reduction, but that doesn't mean that we won't see the US and Russia come to another agreement.
I don't think either the Russian Federation or the United States wants to violate the
substantive terms of that treaty.
In the very same speech that he announced the suspension, Putin made a very big point
to emphasise that Russia didn't want to scrap the treaty, just temporarily put it on ice.
I repeat, we are not withdrawing from the pact.
No.
We are suspending our participation.
And pretty much immediately after the announcement, the US said it was willing to restart talks
with Russia at any time.