Laura: With all eyes on that
Georgia runoff race tomorrow,
that's where we begin with our
politics Monday team.
Amy Walter of the cook political
report with Amy Walter and
Tamara Keith of NPR.
Welcome to you both.
Let's pick up where Laura left
off.
Amy, the senate race, the
Georgia runoff is not going to
determine the balance of power
in the senate.
What is at stake, why does this
matter?
Amy: What is at stake for
Democrats is a couple of things.
The first is you are right, they
have the majority with or
without Georgia.
And you have 51 states instead
of 50, it changes the balance of
power in terms of what they are
able to do in committees they
have.
They don't have to power share
with Republicans.
That matters a lot in terms of
the agenda going forward.
The other important thing it
does is it helps to protect
Democrats going into 2024, gives
them a little bit more of a
cushion.
The 2024 senate map is as bad as
though 2022 senate map was good
for Democrats.
In 2024, Democrats have to
defend West Virginia, Ohio, and
Montana, all states that trump
won.
If they lose one of those
states, they can still have the
majority, assuming that the
president wins reelection.
Amna: How do you look at it?
Tamara: As president Biden put
it, as he was phone banking for
Raphael Warnock from
Massachusetts, late last week,
in a 50-50 senate, every senator
is a president.
This is a line he has used
before with some frustration.
Because just one senator could
derail his agenda.
And did.
And used that power to shape the
agenda for the president.
If there are 51, then that makes
it -- makes a difference for the
president and his agenda.
Not having the house means it is
of limited utility.
But the other thing is right
now, Democrats are one a
heartbeat away from losing the
majority.
And that extra buffer of one
more senator does make a
difference.
Amna: A little wiggle room.
We start talking about 2024 this
early, but that is where we are.
I want to ask about something
else, news from this weekend
forcing more tough questions for
Republicans.
These are comments president
made about the constitution.
Here is what he said for anyone
who missed it.
He said "A massive fraud of this
type and magnitude allows for
the termination of all rules,
regulations, and articles, even
those found in the
constitution."
That led to Republicans,
including congressman Dave
Joyce, being asked about that
statement.
Here is what he said on ABC
yesterday.
>> I can't be really chasing
every one of these crazy
statements that come out about -
-- about any of these
candidates.
>> But that's an extraordinary
statement.
You can't come out against
someone who's for suspending the
constitution?
>> Well, first off, he hasn't --
he has no ability to suspend the
constitution.
Secondly, I don't --
>> But he says he's for it.
>> Well, you know, he says a lot
of things that -- but that
doesn't mean that it's ever
going to happen.
Amna: He is talking about
terminating the constitution.
Should this be this hard to
answer?
Amy: This is this dance that
Republicans have to do almost
every day, is how to answer
these questions.
They know they don't have the
right answer for.
This is just becoming
overwhelming, and yet, they
continue to refuse to just call
out Donald Trump, say we don't
want you to run again, we would
like somebody else, we need
somebody who will focus on the
future, not somebody who wants
to continue to talk about things
like overturning the
constitution.
But they cannot, as long as
Donald Trump continues to have a
pretty solid hold on the party,
on the party's apparatus, and
has still approval ratings in
the 80's among Republican
voters, so they find themselves
in the place they have always
been.
Which is hoping that he either
goes away, which obviously is
not going to happen, or that
somebody finally beats him in a
primary, but they can't say that
out loud.
Amna: Our colleague, Lisa
Desjardins, has been chasing
members of the Republican
leadership ticket comment.
We heard back from a few.
Senator John Thain, the number
two Republican, had this to say.
"Of course I disagree with that.
I swear an oath to uphold the
constitution, the bedrock of our
country.
So I couldn't disagree more."
We heard from other Republican
lawmakers.
There are folks like senator
Rick Scott who dodged answering
the question, basically said, we
need to enforce all of our laws,
saying he believed Mr. Trump who
said he was misunderstood.
What do you make about the way
they are answering this?
Tamara: The former president did
put out another truth today, on
truth social, and sent it around
saying, I never said that,
that's not what I said.
Which this year's word of the
year from merriam-webster's gas
lighting.
That is what that is.
And that is what the former
president does constantly.
He says something that maybe is
a little unclear, but seems to
imply something then he said, I
never said that thing as soon as
people react.
That is the danger Republicans
find themselves in.
If they react too strongly for
he says wait, I never meant to
say that, but let's just be very
clear, that although in this
poster for the weekend, he
talked about terminating
articles of the constitution,
what he was arguing for on
January 6, what he has been
arguing for since, which is
either a rerunning of the 2020
election, or reinstating him as
president, all of those things
are out of line with the
constitution.
And just the other thing to note
is that as Amy points out, there
are a large number of people who
believe that -- they believe the
lie, they believe he should be
in office, they believe he
should be reinstated now, and
there are some subset of people
who believe that is possible.
Amna: We will continue to see
what Republican lawmakers have
to say.
I'm sure there will be another
round of questions.
I need to ask you about the
other big news on the democratic
side, the new proposed
presidential nominating calendar
that president Biden has put
forward.
Instead of Iowa going first,
South Carolina would be going
first.
Congressman from South Carolina,
Jim Clyburn, put out a statement
and said in part this: "I have
been asked what the potential of
South Carolina becoming the
first primary state means for
black voters.
My response is simply, we are
seen."
Black voters have long been the
backbone.
Amy: And yet the two first
states, Isla New Hampshire,
notoriously not diverse.
Every four years, a party
reevaluates the calendar.
And they try to readjust based
on what happened in the previous
years.
Sometimes it is fighting the
last war.
We had 2 -- we had a process
that was too dragged out.
It was too short, we need to
make it longer.
This benefits, first of all, Joe
Biden, who of course was
rehabilitated by South Carolina
after coming in fourth and fifth
in New Hampshire.
And Iowa.
But also, this has been
something that has been in the
works for years.
This is not just immediately
benefiting Joe Biden.
It is reflecting a frustration
among democratic voters that the
core as you pointed out, the
base of the party, black voters
don't get the representation
that they deserve as early in
the process and there is an
overwhelming focus on two
states, including Iowa, which is
no longer particularly
competitive.
It was Iowa that gave Barack
Obama his boost because it
allowed him to say, if a black
candidate for president can win
in a state like Iowa, than I can
win nationally.
Amna: Does it change the
nominating process?
Tamara: I think we will not
truly know whether south
Carolina is the new Iowa,
whether it can be that launching
point for several cycles,
especially if president Biden
runs for reelection.
It would be irrelevant this
cycle.
I think we are not going to know
the effect.
.
And Biden has said, maybe in
part to try to lessen the blow,
that he thinks it should be
revisited every four years.
It may -- if that really
happens, it would completely and
totally scramble the nominating
process.
The political professionals that
set up shop in the states and
know how to work the states, and
know each and every person who
must be spoken to and whose
backyard to go to, it would be
scrambled.
I will say, there are several of
the states that have moved up,
or given more prominence that
art swing states, purple states,
Nevada, Michigan, Georgia.
In is also a swing state.
Amna: You mentioned those
political professionals setting
up shop.
Any Walters had a knowing smile.
She knows that.
Amy: Where to go for dinner.
Amna: Amy Walter, Tamara Keith,
good to talk to you.