Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Vietnam and acted all buddy buddy.
But even the Vietnamese communists aren’t stupid enough to trust China.
Welcome to China Uncensored, I’m Chris Chappell.
The US and China are competing for influence over Vietnam .
A cold war of influence where the US is getting involved with Vietnam? Why
*does* that sound so familiar? Ah, well I’m sure it’ll wind up working out just fine.
Vietnam is playing a larger role in global manufacturing, competing with China.
And so Xi Jinping came to Vietnam for two whole days.
This was the first time Xi has visited Vietnam since 2017.
And it just so happened to be hot on the heels of a visit to Vietnam by President Joe Biden…
…and a visit to Japan by Vietnam’s leader Vo Van Thuong.
Xi does not want Vietnam turning against China. And he has reason to worry.
Vietnam knows that it stands to gain a lot from playing both sides in
the US-China competition through its flexible “bamboo diplomacy”.
Biden’s trip ended in Vietnam inking comprehensive
strategic partnerships with the US… The Japanese trip did as well.
Ah yes, the old, “Wine, dine, and sign.” The classic “Wham, Bam, Thank you Viet-’nam.”
It can’t be emphasized enough how big those deals are. A Comprehensive
Strategic Partnership is the highest level of diplomatic relations Vietnam can offer. The
US and Japan are trying to oust China and Russia’s role in the Vietnamese economy.
Currently, China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner and foreign director investor.
But with billions of dollars in semiconductor and AI deal with the US,
And military agreements with Japan to
counter China’s growing territorial aggression in the South China Sea,
China might be on the way out.
This would be devastating for China.
For one, Vietnam is estimated to have the world's
second largest total deposits of rare earths, after China.
This is huge because China essentially has a monopoly over the rare earth minerals
supply chain, which is vital for things like cell phones, electric vehicles, and advanced weapons.
The thing is, according to Asia Times, “Rare earth deposits in Vietnam have
remained largely untapped, due to the low prices that are effectively set by China”
But the US is offering to help Vietnam develop its mining industry.
Now the US and Vietnam are working together to put a dent in China’s rare earth dominance.
This includes auctioning off the rights to its
biggest rare earths mine and restarting operations there.
That’s why Xi came in to woo Vietnam with a new
railway to transport rare earth minerals to China for refinement.
Xi also sought to expand security cooperation with Vietnam to keep out Western influence,
especially when it comes to conflict over the South China Sea.
He’s desperate to keep Vietnam from leaning towards the US and its allies, but there’s
reason to believe that Xi’s visit wasn’t all that successful. I'll tell you why after the break.
Welcome back.
Xi Jinping is desperately trying to win back Vietnam.
And on the surface, it seems like Xi’s trip may have been successful,
with Vietnam agreeing to what China calls a “community with shared future”.
Because in communist nations, even your future has to be shared.
The two countries signed 36 agreements covering all sorts of things,
from transportation to green development.
Yes, green development. Because China has such a great track record with environmental issues.
But here’s something interesting. China and Vietnam agreed “to enhance high-level
exchanges between law-enforcement agencies… [and] establish… deputy
ministerial-level dialogue on political security”
To prevent “peaceful evolutions” and “color revolutions” of “hostile and reactionary forces.”
Which is another way of saying that they’ll cooperate to crush
pro-democracy movements. Not surprising, since both countries are run by communists
China and Vietnam also agreed to set up “a hotline on unexpected incidents in fishery
activities at sea,” since the two countries have conflicting interests in the South China Sea.
I love that their answer to conflicting interest in the South China Sea is a
hotline. Just dial 1-888-WATER-CANNON and a Chinese Coast Guard ship will be right there.
Chinese state-run media has gone hard on painting the meeting in a positive light, claiming that
Xi’s state visit to Vietnam was the successful culmination of China’s diplomatic efforts in 2023.
But half the agreements signed were non-binding. A lot of it was just talk.
There’s no mention in these agreements on what
to do about Vietnam’s rare earth minerals, which Xi really wants.
At most, the two countries merely said that they’d actively seek to
just maybe strengthen cooperation on key minerals.
It’s a lot of fancy jargon, but not a lot of real substance.
One expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies described Xi’s
visit to Vietnam as "a face-saving trip ... that results in a lot of rhetoric but little concrete."
Even though Vietnam made security agreements with China,
including an agreement to set up a South China Sea hotline, chances are they’ll do very little.
It’s not like China’s going to respect Vietnam, and Vietnam ain’t stupid enough to blindly trust
China to follow through with its agreements, much less respect its security concerns.
It’s wary of accepting Chinese infrastructure investment,
especially from China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
There’s also a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment in Vietnam, thanks in part to China screwing
over their economy and its threats to Vietnamese national security.
In fact that whole shared future thing is bunk.
That was just Chinese state-run media replacing CCP propaganda terms like “community of common
destiny” with “community with shared future”, because the one is so toxic in Vietnam.
On the other hand, According to ASEAN’s State of Southeast Asia survey, if push comes to shove,
Vietnamese people would prefer aligning with the US over China.
It’s easy to see why.
Vietnamese people still remember how China tried to invade them in 1979 and how the
two countries clashed over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in 1988.
They also remember the 2014 stand-off between Vietnamese and Chinese ships…
…after China positioned an oil rig in Vietnamese-claimed waters.
Vietnam and China to this day still butt heads over the South China Sea.
In fact just recently, this drone was found washed up on Vietnamese shores…
…with Mandarin writing.
Hmm. I guess if anything like the 2014 stand-off happens again,
Vietnam can just call the hotline: 1-888-WATER-CANNON.
Now, have you ever wondered how to survive in a Communist regime. I’ve
got a video I want to show you about that, but first, it’s time to show love to the
people who make this show possible, the China Uncensored 50 Cent Army—
Fans who support the show on patreon.com/chinauncensored.
As my way of thanks, I answer their questions at the end of these episodes.
Today’s question comes from Eric Larsen “Who would be most likely
to replace Xi today if a coup or Xi's arrest or death were to take place?”
That’s a very important question. One that might need answering sooner than a lot of people think.
There have been coup attempts against Xi.
And as I talked about in this episode I believe a lot of Xi’s recent actions
have been the result of him dodging assassination attempts. I’ll put a
link in the description to that episode if you’re interested.
So one possibility is that Xi will just be replaced with just another Communist official,
likely someone from the Jiang Zemin clique.That’s Xi’s biggest rival political faction. What would
happen in that case is all the horrible things the CCP does would just be less in your face,
they would lure back Western companies and investment with the lie that things were
deescalating, and the West would be lured into a false sense of
security that would ultimately lead the West’s destruction. That’s the worst case scenario.
It could also be that the Chinese people rise up and cast off the shackles of Communism,
creating a better, freer China in the process. That’s the best case scenario.
One thing is certain—the danger of the
same CCP with just a different frontman cannot be overlooked.
Thanks for your question and your support Eric.
And now I want to show you a video about how to survive Communism. They don’t teach you
much about Communism in school. You hardly ever hear about the Holodomor. And that’s something
YouTube considers way too sensitive. Which is why I’ve hidden this topic in gaming content,
so I don’t flag the YouTube algorithm. Click on this video here about how the game Fear and
Hunger teaches you to survive under Communism. And let me know what you think of new format.
And if you want to support China Uncensored on Patreon, click that orange button.
Once again, I’m Chris Chappell. See you next time.