Sudan is in the midst of what could be its third civil war since independence.
In a country traditionally dominated by the military, fighting broke out in mid-April
to take control of Khartoum, the Sudanese capital.
The troops loyal to the general who presided over the country were facing the militia led
by the man who up until then had been his vice-president.
Four months later, the struggle continues.
Khartoum is being devastated and the violence has spread to other parts of Sudan, taking
on the overtones of an ethnic conflict that looks very bad.
The country is descending into chaos.
At the moment there are no reliable figures, but everything indicates that the number of
fatalities in these four months amounts to about 5,000 and that the fighting has caused
the displacement of more than 2 million people.
And many of you will think: I’m not that bothered about Sudan, I don't even know where
it is.
Well, Sudan matters much more than you think.
Similar in size to Mexico, Sudan is the third largest country in Africa, and was the largest
of all before South Sudan's independence.
It occupies a strategic location since its coastline has access to the Red Sea, through
which routes that account for about 10% of all world maritime trade pass.
In addition, it has significant natural resources: it has oil, it’s not exactly swimming in
dinosaur juice, but it does have modest crude oil production.
And above all it has gold.
So much gold as to attract the attention of Russia, or at least of the Wagner group, which
has links to one of the factions fighting in Sudan while cashing in on its gold holdings.
As if all this were not enough, in Sudan we also have a clash between two traditionally
allied countries.
We are talking about Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are supporting
different sides.
What’s more, you should care about Sudan because it could turn into an absolutely savage
war.
You know that conflicts in Africa tend to escalate into a bloodbath.
UN Secretary General António Guterres has already sounded the alarm bells.
Entire neighborhoods have no running water and limited electricity supplies, and more
than two-thirds of hospitals near areas of conflict cannot function.
I am particularly concerned by reports of gender-based and sexual violence, and by the
ethnic dimension of the violence in Geneina.
Targeted attacks against civilians based on their ethnic identities could amount to crimes
against humanity
So you see, even if it is purely out of humanitarian interest, you have to know what is going on
in Sudan.
So the question is: Why has such a brutal conflict broken out in Sudan?
What are the interests of the powers behind both sides?
What could happen in the coming months?
Today on VisualPolitik we are going to answer these questions, but first... let's look at
a bit of history.
(DEVILS ON HORSEBACK)
In the early 19th century, the rulers of Ottoman Egypt conquered what today corresponds to
most of the territory of Sudan.
It was not until 1899 that Sudan became a dominion of the British Empire.
This colony gained its independence in 1956.
And a lot of you will say: Well that’s great news!
How nice that the Sudanese could decide their future by becoming a democracy!
Well, it wasn’t to be the case.
Sudan is the African country that has suffered the most coups d'état.
Since its independence, 16 coups have taken place, six of which have been successful.
In this way the military have put an end to three attempts to establish democracy in the
country, the most recent in 2021.
Sudan has also experienced two civil wars, one of 17 years and the other of 22 years.
The conflict that broke out in April threatens to be the third Sudanese civil war.
You heard correctly: out of the 67 years of the Republic of Sudan, they have been fighting
for 39 years, more than half of them.
It was South Sudan's struggle to create an independent State with a majority Christian
population, while the rest of Sudan was essentially Muslim.
Finally, the South Sudanese won their independence in 2011.
They took 25% of the territory and 75% of its oil reserves.
[That's right, with an agreement to share this wealth].
However, these resources have been of little use to the world's youngest country because,
surprise, surprise, in their 12 years of independence they have already had their own 7-year civil
war.
But wait a minute, because the two civil wars are only part of the Sudanese tragedy.
Then there is also the Darfour conflict.
That's what the then UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, called it in 2006.
(Annan Calls Darfur 'World's Worst Humanitarian Crisis'.
– RFERL)
In 1989, General Omar al-Bashir came to power in Sudan.
He ruled the country for 30 years and established a dictatorship dominated from Khartoum by
an Islamist elite.
However, things were different in the peripheral regions of the country.
In the Darfur region, black African ethnic groups dedicated mainly to agriculture, such
as the Fur, the Zaghawa and the Masalit, coexisted with a population of Arab origin, dedicated
to pastoralism.
Cattle breeders and farmers regularly fought over territory.
In 2003, the African ethnic groups, fed up with the neglect to which they were subjected
by the central power in Khartoum, broke out in rebellion.
Bashir sent in the army.
Then he turned to the Janjaweed.
Janjaweed means demons on horseback and is the name of the militia used by the Government
of Sudan as a counterinsurgency force against ethnic Africans.
Faced with little progress by the armed forces, Bashir armed Arab nomadic cattle herders and
unleashed them on black African farmers.
Ethnic cleansing was brutal, with 300,000 killed and up to 2.7 million people driven
from their homes.
Sudan's military dictatorship already had a track record that speaks for itself.
It had been one of the four countries in the world that supported Saddam Hussein when Iraq
invaded Kuwait.
It had also hosted Osama bin Laden, who ran al-Qaeda training camps in Sudan for a few
years prior to 9/11.
So when the Government of Sudan commissioned the Janjaweed to do the dirty work in Darfur,
Bashir became the target of all criticism culminating in this situation in 2010.
(International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for genocide against Bashir.
– Reuters)
Bashir became the first sitting Head of State with a warrant for his arrest by the International
Criminal Court.
It didn't do much good because Bashir continued to rule Sudan as if nothing happened.
And now I ask you: if you were the top ruler of Sudan, what do you think would be the only
way to lose power besides dropping dead.
Exactly, a coup d'état.
So to protect himself from his own armed forces, Bashir officially regularized the Janjawed
by turning them into the Rapid Support Forces, his own personal praetorian guard.
He placed his right-hand man in Darfur, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, a warlord who calls himself
Hemedti, at the helm.
But Bashir failed to see his ambition.
(No one likes to eat crumbs from a feast; everyone likes to sit at the table.
– Sudanese proverb).
Internationally isolated, the Sudanese economy was deteriorating and shortages were increasing.
Popular protests followed one after the other and in April 2019 they achieved their goal.
Even so, to overthrow Bashir it would take...
Yes, you guessed it, a coup d'état.
The armed forces gave Bashir the final push when he saw that his dictatorship was at death's
door and Hemedti supported the coup.
Bashir was expendable.
But losing their privileged position in Sudan was something neither the armed forces nor
Hemedti were willing to allow.
And as we say on VisualPolitik, no sooner said than done.
(Sudan's Top General Sworn In as Leader of New Ruling Body.
– New York Times)
General Burhan became the Head of State of Sudan by presiding over the new Sovereign
Council.
At his side he placed Hemedti as vice president.
Because of course, you can't let loose the guy who leads the Janjaweed, an armed force
of 100,000 soldiers.
Now, all this was not exactly a reason to celebrate for the Sudanese.
The people had not risen up against Bashir to keep things the same.
So the military made a pact with the civilian leadership: they would share power until elections
were held in 2022.
With these ingredients and Sudan's track record, what could go wrong in the transition to democracy?
Yes, you guessed it: basically everything.
Check it out.
(THE DEEP STATE VS.
THE AFRICAN PRIGOZHIN)
The 2019 power-sharing agreement between civilians and the military was very fragile.
Why?
Well basically because there are countries that may be much wealthier; but there are
very few in which you can get richer from power at the same level as in Sudan.
Former dictator Bashir had $130 million in cash found in his home.
Yes, yes, in cash.
He controlled the Sudanese economy through the military.
And, of course, the other generals do not have empty pockets either.
So when the new civilian government aspired to set a level of transparency and accountability
worthy of the future democracy they intended to bring to Sudan, General Burhan knew exactly
what he had to do.
And no, he was not alone.
(Sudan: Hemeti emerges from the shadows to support Burhan's coup.
– MiddleEastEye)
Western donors and multilateral banks had pledged billions of dollars to support the
democratic transition.
But this coup by General Burhan and Hemedti in October 2021 prevented much of that aid
from reaching Sudan.
The United States, the World Bank and the IMF stopped the flow of at least $1.4 billion
in aid and debt relief to Sudan.
The military junta then had to cut wheat and fuel subsidies.
The situation in Sudan became untenable and the military was forced to negotiate with
civilians again to advance the democratic transition.
Last December they reached an agreement.
(Sudan to establish new civilian-led transitional government on April 11.
– Africa News)
The problem with these agreements with the military is that they have a lot to hide.
General Burhan wants to protect what Sudanese democrats call the "deep state".
We are talking about a whole network of corporations: from banks and telecommunications companies,
owned by Islamists and intelligence officers, to companies owned by the armed forces itself
that dominate economic sectors such as arms manufacturing, construction, agriculture and
transportation.
Something similar could be said of Hemedti, who in recent years has become the African
Prigozhin.
Hemedti is much more than just a warlord.
Dictator Bashir let the Janjaweed take control of the country's illicit gold mines, particularly
in the Darfur region, making Hemedti one of the richest men in the country.
He has also gained even more money and allies by using his Rapid Support Forces as mercenaries
in the service of the United Arab Emirates to fight in Yemen against the Houthi rebels
and in Libya alongside General Khalifa Haftar.
The new transitional agreement put Sudan's two most powerful men on the ropes.
The terms were clear: Sudan would have one single army under the command of the civilian
government and the Rapid Support Forces would have to be integrated into it.
This clearly threatened the privileged position of both.
That of General Burhan, since the agreement set democratic elections for 2024.
And also that of Hemedti, since within two years he had to integrate his militia into
the Army, something that the African Prigozhin intended to delay for a decade.
Therefore, the only way out for both was armed combat to see which of the two would prevail
in deciding the future of Sudan.
And so the country's capital is taking the brunt of it.
(Streets of Khartoum are devastated by military conflict.
– Sky)
The problem with this conflict is that it is a balanced fight.
It will be difficult for either side to prevail.
The Sudanese armed forces is not worth much, but it has aviation.
The Rapid Support Forces are better armed and more skilled in combat thanks to their
experience as mercenaries.
Their soldiers have had no qualms about taking over homes, schools and even hospitals to
fortify themselves in Khartoum and to take the fight one street at a time.
Now, the armed forces have intensively bombarded the capital.
And as if this were not enough, the fighting has spread to the rest of Sudan, resurrecting
old ghosts from the past that threaten to lead to another ethnic conflict.
Check it out.
(Darfur: Aid workers witness hundreds of murdered bodies including children abandoned in streets.
– Reliefweb)
The Janjaweed ride again and the risk of further genocide gains momentum as the conflict drags
on.
Hemedti stands as the rebel force that has risen up against the legitimate government
of Sudan.
But the latter is also questionable given the coup record of General Burhan, who is
not exactly the best friend of Sudanese democrats.
The support of foreign powers could tip the balance one way or the other, and there are
many interests at stake.
What interests are we talking about?
We are going to take a look at that right now.
(THE TREASURE OF THE RED SEA)
The main powers in the Red Sea are Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
It is therefore in their interest to maintain the status quo in the area.
That means in Sudan as well.
Especially after the fall of the Bashir dictatorship, which had moved very close to its rivals Turkey
and Qatar.
Saudi Arabia and Egypt were comfortable with the military junta of Burhan and Hemedti.
Their main objective in Sudan was to prevent a democratic revolution in the Arab world.
That is why they supported post-Bashir Sudan.
Saudi Arabia pledged to invest $3 billion.
But wait a minute, because the United Arab Emirates doubled the bet.
Why so much interest?
The Red Sea holds the answer:
(UAE to build port in Sudan as part of $6bn investment package . – AGBI)
Despite being traditional allies, as you can imagine, this Emirate port is of no interest
to either Saudi Arabia or Egypt.
What’s more, Riyadh's favorite is General Burhan, who is also General Al-Sisi's favorite
because of the close ties between the Sudanese and Egyptian armies.
However, VisualPolitik community, I have already told you that the UAE's man in Sudan is Hemedti.
So all these crossed interests tie in with Abu Dhabi's growing strategy to deploy its
full economic potential to rival Saudi Arabia as the Arab world's benchmark.
While Prince Bin Salman fell out of favor in the West after Khashoggi's murder, the
United Arab Emirates has tried to portray itself as the friendly face of the region.
In the end they have shown different interests in Yemen and in Washington, where Abu Dhabi
has tried to replace Riyadh as America's favorite military ally in the Gulf.
Bin Salman has not shied away from the rivalry and is now trying to make up lost ground.
We can see it at the sporting level.
The Emirates buy Manchester City, so the Saudis buy Newcastle.
There's Formula 1 in Abu Dhabi, so there's Formula 1 in Saudi Arabia.
And so on.
Therefore, returning to the war in Sudan, right now the priority of the regional powers
is not so much peace, but rather that the side they support prevails.
Even more so if we add the Wagner Group into the equation.
The gold that Hemedti gets in Sudan is being smuggled to Russia through the Emirates.
It has taken the White House a while, but it finally made a move against Abu Dhabi.
Look:
(Two arms companies linked to the Sudanese army, have been sanctioned by the US.
Meanwhile, Al Junaid, a gold trading operation controlled by Hemeti and his brother, and
UAE-based Tradive, have also been sanctioned – Middle East Eye)
The Wagner group's links to Hemedti date back to 2017.
In principle, Wagner would have given weapons and military training to the Rapid Support
Forces in exchange for access to Sudan's gold.
If we had made this video months ago, we would now be telling you about how Russia is spreading
its influence across Africa.
But after the Prigozhin mutiny the scenario has changed.
Or maybe not so much.
If the Kremlin wants to maintain the alliances achieved by Wagner, as staged at the summit
with African countries recently held in St. Petersburg, it needs Prigozhin.
And his finances even more.
(Russia's economy is being propped up by Wagner Group's gold-smuggling operations, UK government
report says.
– BusinessInsider)
Sudan's gold is too attractive for the Kremlin and Wagner to drop Hemedti.
Burhan also has good support with Saudi Arabia, which in 2022 was the world's fifth largest
military spender, behind only the United States, China, Russia and India.
So all indications are that the war in Sudan is going to drag on.
We will be watching closely as these conflicts tend to unleash enormous amounts of violence.
In the meantime, the question is over to you: How do you think the situation in Sudan will
evolve?
Will any of the foreign powers be directly involved?
You can leave me your answer in the comments.
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