Hey, what's up, everyone?
Ajwritescrypto here.
And welcome to the Price Prediction Department!
This one's been coming for a long time.
And now it's finally here.
We're going to cover Algorand.
A lot of you probably know that despite the rocky road,
Algorand is one of my favorite cryptos.
I'm super excited to get into this one.
But, first, thank you to Stake for sponsoring this video.
Let's get it!
Algorand is one of the fastest layer 1s in all of crypto.
They're very energy efficient, scalable, secure and decentralized.
And considering that decentralization is a spectrum,
they're getting more and more decentralized as time goes by.
I know that every crypto project out there says that they figured out the blockchain trilemma,
but Algorand actually has a pretty honest case.
And if you're one of those people that says, "Algorand isn't really decentralized,"
we'll get to that later.
If you ever get a chance to read this book,
The Genius of Algorand by Anthony Scaramucci,
I highly recommend that you flip through this.
It's a very quick read.
One of my favorite things about this book is that when you open up to one of the first pages,
it says "For AJ."
"For AJ." Right there.
And he's definitely talking about me.
Not really, but I still pretend.
Okay.
Despite 2023 being a rocky road, at the end of the day,
Algorand is still a rock solid layer 1 and they're only getting better with time.
Unlike other blockchains such as Solana,
Algorand has had zero downtime since it went live in 2019.
And before Gary Gensler sold his soul to the devil,
he even like Algorand!
Watch this video!
Silvio Micali's Algorand
He's a Turing Award winner at MIT that I work with.
Silvio's got a great technology that has performance.
You could create Uber on top of it.
Hello?
Yeah, I told them.
But, Gary, you did sell your soul to the devil!
Sorry about that.
Let's talk about people that matter.
Algorand was founded by a world renowned mathematician and cryptographer Silvio Micalii.
Silvio Micali has even won a Turing Award,
which is the highest accolade you can receive in computer science.
It's like winning a Grammy for smart people.
Silvio Micali has pioneered so many amazing things that are used
not just in Algorand but in other blockchains every day.
He helped pioneer zero-knowledge proofs.
He helped pioneer verifiable random functions.
And VRFs are crucial
because that's how Algorand achieves consensus in a decentralized secure way.
So, how do VRFs work, you might ask?
In a recent interview,
Algorand CTO John Alan Woods did an amazing job elegantly
explaining how VRFs work in Algorand.
So, basically, if you think of Algorand as an entire decentralized swarm of bees
buzzing around, where each node is one bee,
so all the bees are buzzing around and doing their job,
and the VRFs give Algorand the ability to randomly pick one bee to create a block.
And then once a bunch of blocks are proposed, they narrow it down again to one single block.
And once they get that single block, the entire network agrees on it,
and then they verify it and add it to the chain.
And here's the crazy part.
That entire process happens in 3.3 seconds.
It used to be 3.8 seconds,
but thanks to the newest update,
now, it's 3.3.
I think the craziest part about all of this is that Algorand does this, the entire network,
it uses less than 80 kilowatts of energy.
When your neighbor charges their Tesla, that requires more than this entire network.
According to this article on your screen right here,
Algorand's digital transactions emit 150 million times less CO2 than Bitcoin.
I'm all for proof-of-work.
And I understand,
but this is a much more efficient way to go about doing things.
And while saving all of that energy,
they can process up to 10,000 transactions per second
at a 3.3-second time of finality.
If you want to send Bitcoin to someone, it's going to take like 30 minutes, 45 minutes,
for them to get the Bitcoin.
If I need to send crypto to someone, best believe they're getting Algorand.
So to be real with you,
since I got into Algorand, this entire thing has been a big learning experience for me.
I mean, even when I first was searching for Twitter spaces to learn about it,
it took me five or six times to find a Twitter space that was in English.
A lot of people refer to Algorand as the Cardano of Europe.
Anyway, Algorand is pretty tech-heavy,
and it will be sort of hard for you to understand some concepts
unless you're like an engineer or someone who knows how to code.
In this last year alone,
I've learned more about coding and those sorts of concepts
than I have in my entire life.
The thing is, Algorand was made from a computer science engineer
and it's made for computer science engineers.
If you want to learn how to build on Algorand,
you can take a virtual bootcamp that is for Algorand developers.
They have classes for beginners
or intermediate classes for more advanced people.
And they will help you every step of the way.
In March this year, Algorand released the AlgoKit,
which is the ultimate toolkit for builders to build on Algorand.
Regardless on if you're using Mac or Windows, you can have this up and running in 10 minutes.
Besides just the AlgoKit,
another bullish innovation on the tech side of Algorand
is the rollout of one-click nodes.
And what I mean by that is that if you want to run a participation node on Algorand,
you can literally do that with one click.
That's right. You can be a bee buzzing around in the Algorand ecosystem in just one click.
The version of the one-click nodes that is out right now is the beta version,
but the full version will be coming out in the near future.
My question is this.
Does the rollout of one-click nodes mean that there might be consensus rewards
coming in the future?
Stay tuned.
In my opinion, it is so hard to not be bullish on Algorand,
especially when you realize how big the ecosystem is
and how well-oiled that machine is.
Here on the Algorand website,
you can look into how intricate the ecosystem actually is.
First of all, Algorand DeFi is awesome.
Algorand has its own memecoins.
Shout-out to COOP.
I'm not making this video without shouting out to COOP.
You guys are awesome.
It has its own lending and borrowing sites like Folks Finance.
It has trading protocols and marketplaces like Tinyman.
Continuing through here,
they have art, music and NFTs.
I know Rand Gallery is very popular.
EXA Market isn't listed here, but I know that one's up and coming as well.
Algorand has gaming.
They have oracles and bridges.
They have infrastructure.
I think one of my favorite things about the Algorand ecosystem
is that they listen to their holders.
And this is why governance is so important.
Governance works for Algorand a little bit different than it does for other coins.
Instead of just staking your coins forever and letting them sit in there,
with Algorand, you lock your coins up for three months at a time.
When you lock your coins up,
during that time is when you can vote on proposals
and have your voice heard in the Algorand network.
Since you're watching this on Sunday,
you still have three days left to lock up your coins for the next three-month period.
There's a number of places you can do this,
but personally, I'm doing it on Folks Finance.
They have everything you could possibly ask from a layer 1 crypto.
And they are doing a really great job of building it out.
And I am proud to be a part of this ecosystem.
And a part of that ecosystem is the Algorand family.
The Algorand family is full of the nicest, most intellectual people
you will ever meet in your life.
This past year, I have gotten to know so many people from this ecosystem.
And I'm just so grateful to be a part of this community.
Along the way, I became friends with Algorand CTO John Alan Woods.
John and I talk every now and again.
And I asked him before I made this video,
"If you could say two things to 100,000 people about Algorand,
what would it be?"
John told me that Algorand is completely different to other chains
because it empowers use cases that are not possible on other chains
because as Algorand boasts instant finality, without the possibility of rollbacks.
This is absolutely huge.
The second thing he told me is that, "We are evolving the chain,
both in terms of decentralization with regard to part node to part node gossip,
and increasing the number of part nodes with solutions that make it easier to run a node."
Like, just a moment ago,
I told you about one-click nodes and how important that is.
Before I get into the price prediction, I want to explain what this is
because there are people out there that don't think that Algorand is actually decentralized.
And I want to clear this up for everybody.
Remember when I talked about the nodes being bees in the beehive
and they're all buzzing around?
Well, those are participation nodes.
Now, with one click, you can run your own participation node.
The participation nodes do not speak to each other.
The participation nodes talk only to the relay nodes.
And the relay nodes are just that.
Relays.
They relay the information around the network.
They do a lot of the heavy lifting.
So some people think that not anyone can run a relay node.
That's actually not true.
Anyone can run a relay node.
It's just expensive and hard to set up.
But ultimately, in the long run, it won't matter anyway.
Like John said in his second message, Algorand is evolving as a chain.
Over time, Algorand is going to move away from relay nodes,
and they're going to move towards a more gossip whisper style network
between the participation nodes, between the bees and the beehive.
For effect, this is going to make the network more interconnected
and more decentralized.
By moving away from the relay nodes,
they are going to put a lot of that noise to rest.
And I have to give Algorand props for rolling with the punches
and changing and evolving over time.
This concept will come into play again when we talk about their tokenomics.
Before we get into the price prediction,
first, we have to talk about Algorand's vesting or emission schedule.
Like I said, how Algorand evolves over time,
the way they are vesting or emitting tokens into the circulating supply,
that has changed over time as well.
If you look back to the charts in June of 2019,
you will see that Algorand, you know, the coin basically went live
and fell directly downhill.
It actually plummeted about 92% in its first 100 days of existing.
Not exactly the start they were looking for.
That sharp drop in price action happened, because at the time,
they were vesting about 3.2 million Algorand every day.
The supply just continued going up and up and up and up,
which caused the price of the coin to go down and down and down and down.
And they realized,
"Hey, this isn't working.
We have to change.
We have to do something else"
That obviously wasn't working for them or for their early backers,
so they had to stop aggressively vesting so hard and change course.
So Algorand plan to actually be 100% vested, have all of the coins in the supply by 2024.
Since then, they have changed that to 2030.
And since then, they have changed it again.
And 2030 acts as a benchmark,
but it's not exactly clear exactly when Algorand will be 100% fully vested.
So, as of right now, Algorand has about 76% of its max supply in circulation.
Understand that the Algorand Foundation holds that other 24%,
and they use those coins to help build and support the community over time.
Think of giving out grants, the governance, building new projects.
That all costs money.
And the Algorand Foundation wants to help that happen.
So once all the coins are vested, Algorand will generate money for itself.
Because the emission schedule isn't exactly clear cut like other coins,
some people think that it's going to be aggressively vested
and it will be out in a number of years.
I personally think the last 24% is going to go into the supply slower
because the Algorand Foundation wants to continue to be able to help
and support the community.
As you can see on your screen here,
more recently, Algorand partnered with DWF in a $50 million deal.
DWF is a Web3 investment firm.
And they made this deal to supercharge the ecosystem.
This deal was pretty controversial to some people,
but personally, I think it's more bullish in the long run.
You have to understand that that $50 million from DWF Labs is 500 million Algorand.
And that Algorand they're buying isn't Algorand that's already in the supply.
That's Algorand that was locked from the foundation.
Because of that, as of recently,
Algorand has been emitting millions of Algorand coins into the supply every day.
But of course, once DWF gets that 5% of the supply,
it's going to stop leaking into the circulating supply.
And with all that being said, let's get to the price prediction.
A lot of websites will tell you that Algorand hit its all-time high of $3.24
on June 21, 2019.
I don't consider that the all- time high because that was right after the coin launch
and it fell, you know, 92% after that and then went on to the next bull run.
I consider Algorand's all-time high to be $2.82, which it reached in November of 2021.
When it hit that all-time high of $2.82, its market cap was a little over $13 billion.
According to the CoinMarketCap screenshot a couple of days before the all-time high,
Algorand had 6,249,000,000 coins in its supply.
As of right now, Algorand is a little bit above 11¢
with a market cap of $860 million.
Out of its max supply of 10 billion coins,
Algorand currently has a little over 7,573,000,000 coins in circulation.
So, like I said, as of today, Algorand is about 76% vested.
So, look. I understand that Algorand has went down a lot in price
since its all-time high.
I understand that it has lost over $12 billion from its market cap
and over a million coins went into the circulating supply since that time.
But I also know this.
Algorand is building.
And it's not like Algorand doesn't know how to pump.
In the first 42 days of 2021, Algorand pumped about 450%.
Between July to September of 2021, Algorand pumped 280%.
This coin knows how to pump once the momentum is going.
It's just a matter of getting the wheels spinning again.
So I scanned the internet and looked at what other websites were saying
for Algorand price predictions.
And I saw everything between 51¢, 70¢, 89¢, and honestly, I'm a little offended.
I think Algorand is going to do much better than that.
So I thought to myself,
"Why don't I do a poll on Twitter and see what my audience has to say?"
As you can see here on the poll,
it was actually pretty even between the four options.
But I look at it like this.
Over 75% of people at least think Algorand is going to $1.50.
And over 22% of the voters think it's going past $6.
So let's look into it.
Remember, the equation for price predictions is price
equals market cap divided by circulating supply.
So, what will the supply be for Algorand's next all-time high?
Well, it really depends how much the Algorand Foundation's puts into other projects.
Like I said, 2030 is a benchmark for when Algorand could be fully vested,
but it's not exactly clear that they will all be released by then.
Like I said, they want to hold on to some Algorand
so they can continue to build and grow the ecosystem.
Since there's not a clear cut vesting schedule like other coins that say,
"By this date, we'll have this many coins."
That currently does not exist for Algorand.
But Algorand does put out transparency reports filling us in every couple of months.
So myself and a couple other people from the Algorand family,
we put our heads together,
and we estimate that there will be roughly 8.5 billion coins in the circulating supply
by the time we get to November 2025,
which is projected to be the top of the next bull run.
So if we take Algorand's market cap from November of 2021
when it was at all-time high, it was a little over $13 billion.
If we use that as the numerator
and then put that with the heightened supply of 8.5 billion coins,
that would spit us out at about $1.54 per Algorand.
And that pretty much lines up with the Twitter poll that I took
because at least 75% of the voters think Algorand is getting to at least $1.50.
And if Algorand did go to $1.54, from its current price point,
that is still a 13X.
But personally, I think it's going to do better than that.
With the heightened supply in mind,
if Algorand went to a $20 billion market cap,
it would come out at about $2.35 per Algorand.
And if the market cap really caught on fire and went to $50 billion,
Algorand would be worth about $5.85.
So for the top of the next bull run,
my Algorand price prediction is somewhere between $2.35 and $5.85.
I've given a lot of price predictions,
and I understand that this one is somewhat of a larger range between the price points.
But there's a reason for that.
First of all, there's the regulation we don't know about.
We don't know what is going to happen in the future
and what that looks like moving forward.
There is always that to deal with anytime looking at price predictions.
And I do have faith that Algorand will reclaim that market cap
and pick up with the numbers as the excitement of the bull run picks back up.
Right now, things are still pretty sad for not just Algorand but all of altcoins.
We're still basically in an altcoin bear market.
And until the excitement turns around,
a lot of people, they might not see the light at the end of the road,
but it's important that you have faith and you have conviction
with the coins that you pick.
And I think that Algorand is a winner.
So boom! There you go.
There's my Algorand price prediction.
Was my prediction too bullish? Too bearish?
Let me know in the comments below.
Also, just yesterday, me and my good friend Cassius Cuvée put out an Algorand music video
on the BitBoy Crypto YouTube page.
The link is in the description if you haven't heard it yet.
Have yourself a great weekend.