In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest solutions in the
form of incoming players. We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture, we don’t
have inside information, and we’re not considering the brand value of players. Purely, their
on-field performance, and their suitability for the team in question.
Today’s team is Borussia Dortmund. Welcome to sensible transfers.
Ordinarily, these videos would suggest new players for a club. Borussia Dortmund, however,
appear to have finished their summer business extraordinarily early. So, this video, rather
than suggest new players, will investigate Dortmund’s recruitment rationale for those
already newly signed; to ask whether these players were sensible transfers.
Dortmund, coached by Lucien Favre, ran Bayern Munich close in last season’s Bundesliga.
They scored the second most goals, and conceded the fourth fewest, In Paco Alcacer, they had
the second highest scorer in the Bundesliga (18), while Jadon Sancho led the assist charts
with 14. They significantly exceeded their xG in actual goals, scoring those 81 from
an xG total of 60.9 using Wyscout’s model. They also enjoyed the third highest average
possession, made the most passes per minute, and conceded the third fewest shots. In short,
they were a very good team, outperforming their expected capacity for scoring, while
also keeping it tight defensively and hogging the ball.
Dortmund are a smart recruiting club, guided by the excellent Director of Football Michael
Zorc, a Dortmund legend who holds the club record for appearances as a player, but how
does one improve an already excellent team? Dortmund moved quickly this summer to secure
four big deals, but were they sensible transfers?
Full-backs who can get forwards, support attacks, overlap, and provide crosses are crucial for
most dynamic, modern footballing sides. In Favre’s preferred 4-2-3-1, where the front
four provide movement and the wide attackers often cut inside, attacking full-backs are
key.
Last season, Dortmund mostly used Lukasz Piszczek on the right and Achraf Hakimi on the left,
and they both played extremely well, but there are issues. Piszczek is 34 and Hakimi, naturally
right-footed, is halfway through a two year loan from Real Madrid and is almost certain
to return. Of the stand-ins, Raphael Guerreiro actually did very well playing higher up the
pitch, recording six assists, but is a defensive concern, while Marcel Schmelzer is good, but
not great.
Schulz is definitely a sensible transfer. He was one of the two best left-backs in the
Bundesliga last season, along with Bayern’s David Alaba. Of left-sided defenders in Europe’s
top five leagues, no-one contributed more expected assists than Schulz, both in total
and per 90. He also made 0.84 key passes per 90, fourth in Europe’s top five leagues
for left backs, while leading the Bundesliga for key passes overall, and his deep completions
numbers, showing how well he got the ball into dangerous areas in the box from wide,
are excellent.
He was also fourth in the Bundesliga overall for progressive runs, runs that move the ball
forwards 10 or more metres, or runs that end in the penalty area. In short, Dortmund have
secured one of the best attacking left backs in European football, one whose experience
playing as a wing back in Hoffenheim’s 3-1-4-2 shows his ability both to attack and secure
a whole flank defensively; indeed, Schulz could even be used as a left winger should
circumstances require it. This is move that secures Dortmund a top class left back entering
his peak years.
Dortmund’s style is predicated on quick shifts of the ball forwards, either from the
centre-backs or the full backs. The attacking front four then combine in a series of intricate
passes, often looking either to run onto through passes or get the ball wide into areas from
which low crosses can be generated for onrushing players. The front four are fluid – slightly
less so when Alcacer is the front man – but generally they move well in concert and create
problems by swapping positions, making runs from deep, and being able to carry and pass
at real pace.
Brandt and Hazard will both augment this. Both players are versatile: Hazard has played
on the left and right wings, as well as in deeper wide positions in a four man midfield,
and can play as a ten too; Brandt is probably a left winger by instinct, but played in a
hybrid 8/10 central midfield role this season for Bayer Leverkusen to great effect. This
season, Hazard led the Bundesliga for progressive runs (114) and was second for total dribbles
(230) while Brandt was second only to Sancho for total smart passes (62/67), passes that
take opposition players out of the game, and second only to Thomas Muller for total deep
completions.
It’s also worth noting that by acquiring Brandt and Hazard, Dortmund now have three
of the top five assist providers from last season’s Bundesliga [Sancho 13, Joshua Kimmich
and Brandt 11, Hazard and Filip Kostic 10] and, when one adds in Schulz, four of the
top seven players for expected assists.
Both Hazard and Brandt will add to Dortmund’s already bristling attacking options. They
are players who thrive on the sort of play that Dortmund try to create, quick bursts
of pace, rapid passing exchanges, driving to the by-line to pull back crosses, or carrying
the ball forwards. They will compliment players like Marco Reus, Mario Gotze, and Jadon Sancho,
creating a variety of attacking options that will be a serious headache for any opposition.
Perhaps the most arguable transfer of Dortmund’s summer business was the acquisition of centre
back Hummels, who moved to Dortmund in 2008 on loan from Bayern before making the move
permanent, only to return to Bayern in 2016. Back in the black and yellow of the club where
he made his name and won the World Cup with Germany, Hummels is still a good defender
despite the issues suffered by Bayern last season. Bayern’s centre back berths were
shared between Hummels, Jerome Boateng, and Niklas Sule, and, with Manuel Neuer having
a poor season, Bayern sometimes seemed to be playing a higher line than their defenders
could cope with. Hummels has declined physically a little, but is still an excellent reader
of the game. Crucially, he brings experience to a central defence of Manuel Akanji and
Dan-Axel Zagadou, both talented but not the finished article: Zagadou can be prone to
lapses in concentration, while Akanji is elegant and a good passer, but can suffer in the air.
Hummels will also augment Dortmund’s build up play. He was second overall in last season’s
Bundesliga for progressive passes per 90 (15.1); only Boateng had more. His 11.9 passes to
the final third per 90 will again help Dortmund’s progressive passing style from the back, and
among centre backs in Europe’s top five leagues, no player made more passes forwards
per 90 (32.6). Defensively, it’s quite hard to assess Hummels given that Bayern are so
dominant domestically and that many of their issues last season in this regard were due
to the goalkeeper; nonetheless, if Hummels plays alongside a younger, more athletic defender
such as Zagadou, this will likely benefit them both. So in some regards, this is a sensible
transfer – there will be questions over the cost – but the benefits may well outweigh
the negatives.
Dortmund’s transfer moves have been excellent. They have found players who will adapt easily
to their style and build on what they already do well. In Schulz, they’ve addressed an
area that needed strengthening, while in Hazard and Brandt, they’ve picked up two of the
most creative Bundesliga talents they did not already own. Hummels adds experience and
progressive passing from deep.
And here is what we think the team could look like:
While Dortmund have spent a lot of money, they’ve spent it well. Schulz, Brandt, and
Hazard are brilliant buys; Hummels is more questionable, but still makes sense. These
are
sensible transfers.