India, one of the largest countries in the world,
with a highly skilled population that the west
just can't hire fast enough, with a history of toppling empires.
And now it has an economy many
think will topple one more - China.
It said that India's economy won't just
equal China, it'll blow past them, taking
China's spot in the global hierarchy.
But is this actually true?
Because this would flip the economy of
the world, impacting you directly, maybe making
you rich in the process.
And more importantly, will China let this happen?
Well, the answer to these questions starts
with BRICS, not the red kind.
About 20 years ago, a Goldman Sachs
economist invented the word BRIC, which stands for
Brazil, Russia, India and China.
This might sound like a list of holiday destinations
but it's actually something much more exciting.
It's a prophecy.
You see, BRIC, or the more modern BRICS, after
the inclusion of South Africa, refers to the developing
countries that were believed to become the dominant suppliers
of manufactured goods, services and raw materials by 2050.
Countries like Brazil and Russia
would become powerhouses of raw materials.
But in particular, China would become the world's
dominant supplier of manufactured goods and services.
They would do this alongside one other major country,
the only one that could rival it - India.
But when you have two growing economies racing
through stages of development, both fueled by the
same industry, there's going to be ruthless competition
and only one can win.
Could it be India?
It actually might.
Let's go back in time for a second.
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India, to put it lightly, has a crazy history.
One of the oldest inhabited regions on earth, going
back to tribes that are over 250,000 years old.
The ancient civilization spent centuries
divided between states and kingdoms.
This lasted until around 600 BC, when
it became engulfed by the Persian empire.
At the time, this was one of
the most dominant empires in the world.
Even the Greeks knew they were no joke.
So India stayed under Persian rule for quite a while.
And that is until a 25 year old came
walking along and he wanted to change everything.
Alexander the Great cut a path through the Persian empire,
making his way to India, where he tried
to make it part of his empire.
But it wasn't as easy as he thought.
Alexander's men were sick of
conquering the entire world.
And the Indian armies he fought had a secret
weapon nobody was ready for - big f***ng elephants.
So he's like, I'm not dealing with those elephants.
Packed up, left for home, and left India to become
part of the Mauryan Empire, which lasted until 1498.
That's when this Portuguese guy showed up.
He's kind of a big deal because
he initiated trade between India and Europe.
But most importantly, the British Empire got involved.
They dominated India's trade and economy for years, profiting
off of the back of its enormous resources and
manpower, where they sat back and played cricket.
Now, India's story could end here, but if you
know your history, then you know what happens next.
Gandhi happened.
Gandhi helped to nonviolently slap the British
Empire out of India and the country
finally gained its independence in 1947.
Free from empires and conquerors, free from kings,
free to run itself and seize its destiny.
A free, democratic country.
And with this fertile ground for
economic growth, the story ends.
OK, not exactly.
You see, just as India has a crazy history,
it's also a bit of a crazy place.
It's a melting pot of religions.
It's home over 1.3 billion people, bursting
the country at its seams with population.
The only country that compares is, you guessed it, China.
But India will take that crown pretty soon as well.
But all these factors: population, diverse religion
and a relatively young democracy come with
problems that still need to be solved.
For example, the country is
rampant with widespread inequality.
The IMF actually reported that a quarter of the
population lives on less than $3.2 a day.
Violent religious tensions explode all over the country and
it has growing rivalries with its bordering nations,
one of which, you guessed it again, China.
So, while India has escaped its history and seems poised
to explode in growth, is it actually safe to invest?
Or are there too many problems holding it back
from turning it into the true China slayer?
Every investment has its risks.
And when investing in a country, there
are a lot of factors to consider.
A stable government, a population that isn't rioting
and avoiding open warfare are always pretty good
things to take a look at.
This is why Iran and Russia and Kanye
are being avoided like the plague right now.
They operate in a way that's perceived as untrustworthy for
investment and that's just kind of bad for growth.
For a country to reach its potential,
it needs to be a place that companies can
just do business freely in, which really comes
down to two factors - politics and economics.
When it comes to politics, you really want your
country to have a clean bill of health.
But when it comes to India,
you run into a few problems.
Until 1991, India had what's called a
command economy, which is kind of a
nice way of saying the government controlled everything,
all investment, all means of production.
It was far from ideal.
However, in 1991, India started
a process of liberalization.
This meant having more private enterprises,
innovating and competing in the market.
And that's when things really took off.
And this is great, but many think it could be better.
If it were better, it
would attract even more investment dollars, they say.
But what exactly is wrong with India's politics today?
We'll take the current Prime Minister Modi.
In 2016, he decided overnight to just cancel
their highest paper value currencies, these 500 and 1000 rupee bills
were simply taken out of circulation.
Poof. Gone.
The idea was to fight black markets and counterfeits.
And it's important to note that if an average
citizen legally held this currency, they were able to
go to the bank and swap them out.
The value wasn't totally gone.
But the trust issue still harmed the
economy and cut growth for a while. And there's more.
India has big corruption problems, and
the government is blamed for it.
It's so bad that, according to the Economist, the
democratic status of the country is actually decreasing.
Not ideal if your country is
trying to beat big, bad China.
Now let's see the other factor, the economy.
Economically, India is like Ronaldo at
the beginning of his career.
In fact, we got bad news for King Charles,
because India just replaced Great Britain as
the fifth largest economy in the world.
India's GDP grew by 40% in the past seven years.
They're simply titans when it comes
to pharmaceutical, chemical and electrical manufacturing.
Tech giants are flooding to India.
Even Apple is shifting its production
of iPhones from China to India.
A clear sign that the country is growing and desirable.
So, despite some political tensions and a lot
of corruption work that needs cleaning up, India
seems to be a pretty solid investment.
And real quick, I want to touch on
the pros and cons for a second, because
you might hear me say solid investment.
How could you say that when there's obvious issues?
And here's the thing.
When there's zero risk, the investment returns
are priced down to essentially zero.
Everyone wants zero risk.
Any investment with the potential for a
high return is going to have risk.
The key is finding areas where
the returns outweigh the risks.
And this brings us to the crux of this video.
India is growing.
But is it growing enough to overthrow China?
China's the only state that's
managed to beat India's growth.
It's a country built on an economy and ideology
that's so strong, even easygoing dudes like Putin would
back off, and its ruler just solidified his power,
which puts China's economy in a pretty firm place.
But tensions are growing between the two
nations, and moves are being made to
protect and establish key trade routes.
More on that later.
But right now, based on their current
foundation, will China stay in the lead?
Or will India seize the opportunity and win?
The answer, again, lies in two key elements.
To expand quickly, a country
needs a healthy, growing population.
And from the outside, it looks like China
has India beat. China's number one in the world, with
over 1.4 billion people, a tad more than India.
Now, numbers matter a lot when you think about
industrial firepower, but it's not the most important thing.
What matters even more is the age of population.
The Chinese population is declining
and getting older quickly.
This is something that happens
in industrialized countries, especially ones
that institute insane reproduction policies.
And here's where India takes a decisive lead.
You see, in India, almost half the
population is under 25 years old.
It's one of the youngest in the world.
Not only that, but it's part of India's culture to
get into tech, which means the country has a young,
energetic workforce that's trained to do work in one of
the most demanded industries in the world, where China is
kind of stuck with a bunch of elderly people, meaning
slower growth and higher costs.
And the story doesn't end there.
China has invested since the '80s at a speed that
no one saw coming, and managed to
build an amazing system of infrastructure cities,
public transport, airports, factories, everything.
In a weird way, that's probably been
helped by China's political system, which dominates
pretty much everything in the country, right
down to people's day to day behavior.
Now, I'm not supporting that level of control, but
they did get things done pretty quickly and lifted
hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.
Meanwhile, India is a whole different story.
While India isn't on China's manufacturing level, the country
managed to build a sort of invisible infrastructure, particularly
its investments made in IT and tech.
To give you an idea, India has 100 unicorns.
These are startups that are worth more than $1 billion.
This is third only to the US and China.
Not only that, the IT sector is so strong that
a lot of Indians are becoming CEOs of the most
advanced companies in the world - Google, Microsoft, IBM, Twitter-
Well, you get the point.
If I was China, I'd be pretty scared,
because while they've got manufacturing on lock,
which is an incredible economic foundation, their population doesn't
have the youth and drive of India's.
And India's loving embrace of the tech industry is
only going to propel their growth, further cementing their
name as a titan of the future.
Which is probably why China wants
to stop them at all costs.
Now, if you're a degenerate, and I say pearl necklace,
then you probably have a particular image in your head.
But when it comes to India and China,
pearl necklace means something much more threatening.
The string of pearls theory suggests
that China is encircling India.
Like a python in its prey, china is
taking control of ports across the Indian Ocean
and key waterways like the Strait of Mandeb.
Combine this with the development of the China
Pakistan Economic Corridor, connecting trade in the region
and China's Belt and Road initiative.
This effectively allows China to form
a trade circle around India.
This means control of India's power, trade and freedom.
And like a string of pearls, when titan
strangles the victim, this all suggests that China
is taking India's power very, very seriously.
But India isn't about to take this lying down.
They actually have a strategy of their own.
Because you know what's better than a pearl necklace?
A diamond necklace.
Countering China's move.
India is expanding its naval bases to key
locations around the world and improving relationships with
strategic countries, even going so far as building
relationships with Mongolia, north of China.
This allows India to counter China's string of pearls
by encircling the country on an even grander scale.
This ambitious plan puts India
in an incredible defensive position.
They actually gain crucial control over
the Malacca Strait, limiting China's trade
across the Indian Ocean and Africa.
So, in short, if China wants
to fight India's game, India's ready.
There's a lot of unknowns when it comes
to India versus China, but if I had
to bet, I'd say India comes out ahead.
They're younger, hungrier, and have
great relationships with Western countries.
From here, you might be wondering how to invest in India,
and the easiest way to do it is to
buy an index fund that tracks top performing Indian stocks.
The first ticker is INDY.
This is a fund that tracks the 50
largest companies in India, giving you exposure to
the safest assets in the country.
If you're interested, simply go on a
stock brokerage search, INDY, click Buy, and
the number of shares that you'd like.
By the way, I'm doing this on
Weeble, which I'll have linked down below.
If you want to try them out,
yu'll actually receive up to twelve stocks free
just for joining and making a trade.
How's that for a passive income hack?
Or if you're looking for slightly more risk
in India, you can look at Ticker SMIN.
This index tracks a portfolio of 240 small cap
Indian stocks in a wide variety of industries.
Again, you can type SMIN your favorite brokerage app
and buy some if you want to.
Just make sure only to invest at the
level of risk that you're personally comfortable.
None of this is financial advice.
Please do your own research as well.
So what do you think?
Is India going to take over China?
Hit the subscribe button while you think
about it, and have a profitable day.