>> Nam: Debates often matter.
With us for a quick read object how this one landed we're joined by Erin Kelly.
She is the CEO of Advanced Symbolics Inc. and helps translate what the artificial
intelligence nope as "polly."
Sees Ontario voters talking about.
And Erin joins us now from Washington, D.C.
Hi, Erin.
>> Erin: Hi, Nam.
>> Nam: It's great to see you.
When it comes to the winner of the debate who does polly see as the winner?
>> Erin: I can tell you that polly is seeing that of the people who want to replace Doug
Ford, they all felt that Doug Ford won this debate.
>> Nam: Well, then who lost?
>> Erin: It's interesting.
That's how people felt.
We definitely saw.
This was almost like watching the leafs in game 7.
The people who wanted to see Doug Ford replaced wanted to see either Andrea Horwath or Steven
Del Duca or perhaps Mike Schreiner score that gotcha goal.
And there just wasn't that moment in the debate.
So Doug Ford won almost by default.
Now, we did see at the end Steven Del Duca definitely did better than Andrea Horwath.
And if we were to look just at the likability of the leaders, Mike Schreiner was a clear
favourite.
Especially in his performance in the health care section when he said Mr. Ford, have you talked
to a nurse lately?
How disrespected they feel.
We saw a huge bump for Mike Schreiner at that moment and it stayed with him.
So he did really well permanently.
But, of course, people feel they don't want to split the vote and you saw at the end Doug Ford
very cleverly started to promote Mr. Schreiner and say that he could work with him because, of
course, that would split that vote.
So the progressive people watching tonight really felt that their team didn't come out
as the clear winner and, in fact, might have split the vote and that is what polly is seeing
that Doug Ford won by default.
>> Nam: Well, just following up what you just said on how Mr. Schreiner performed, which
moments from the debate generated the most conversation on social media?
>> Erin: Well, so there were a few moments.
When Doug Ford and Andrea Horwath were both criticizing Del Duca for his past
performance under Kathleen Wynne's government, he tried to skate past that and that didn't
work for him.
People saw that.
When he kept saying Andrea Horwath you're living in the past and then he and Horwath
argued against each other, that was a low point.
And that brought up Doug Ford.
And Doug Ford also played that against Mike Schreiner.
You know, when he said you were a disaster you left me without any PPE when you took over.
A lot of the highlights were, in fact, low lights, if you will.
Whether it was Horwath and Del Duca arguing against each other, they all seemed to favour
Mr. Ford in the end.
>> Nam: You mentioned that Mr. Ford essentially won the debate by default.
Right now is the debate translating into a loss of support for any of the parties
by vote switchers or other Ontarians?
>> Erin: I think what it did is the people who want to see Mr. Ford replaced we saw
toward the end of the debate they were moving their vote toward Mr. Del Duca and away
from Andrea Horwath.
And by the way, this debate had twice the engagement on the election as anything in the
previous week.
So people were tuned in.
So it was a good night for Mr. Del Duca in that respect that we saw people saying okay,
we know who we're going to put our vote toward because people were wondering if they should go
with Horwath or Del Duca and Del Duca did come in second place in that sense.
>> Nam: The issues that have been coming up in this election are affordability and the cost
of living.
Who had the most convincing talking point on addressing those issues?
>> Erin: In the economy it was clearly Mr. Ford.
So none of the -- Mr. Del Duca spoke a lot about his 19-point plan.
But Mr. Ford did a good job of saying, look, you had that opportunity when you were in
government before, you didn't do it right.
And people believe that.
And so when it came to the economy and affordability, people felt that Mr. Ford had
the best plan, despite the $10 billion 413 we didn't see that that really got any points for
Mr. Del Duca or Ms. Horwath.
>> Nam: Over the past two years as we've navigated the pandemic it's something that has come up
a lot.
After this debate who do voters believe can meet the needs of teachers and families on the
education front.
>> Erin: We found Del Duca got a bit of an edge in the education front.
But it, again, it wasn't a slam dunk.
I would say in education Mr. Ford held his own and kept his own supporters.
And Mr. Del Duca probably took some from Ms. Horwath.
>> Nam: What about health care?
Who came out on top on that?
>> Erin: Mike Schreiner.
Interestingly enough.
Andrea Horwath really missed an opportunity there because that was her -- she's been promoting
health care a lot.
But she got into too much of an argument with Del Duca on that topic and Mike Schreiner came up
the middle looking like the reasonable person.
He kept firing home that you can't invest in the infrastructure but not invest in
the staff.
So that moment really went to Mr. Schreiner.
>> Nam: And polly can pick up emotion.
What emotion did polly pick up on those conversations?
>> Erin: The emotion was really interesting.
That one is a bit nuanced.
People didn't like the negativity between Del Duca and Horwath.
So I would say it would have been a more -- a clearer win for Mr. Del Duca had he been less
argumentative, perhaps.
That's where Mr. Ford did very well.
He didn't interrupt people.
He looked into the camera.
He waited for his turn.
Whereas the other two were a little bit more argumentative that way.
So that emotion was negative.
But the facts of the debate did not stir people's emotions too much.
And that was the problem.
I mean nobody was feeling, yeah, this person has got a great plan.
Yes, I'm putting my faith in this person.
It was more, okay, if I don't want Mr. Ford to win, where do I put my vote and I'm just going
to go with whoever seems to be less bad, almost.
You know, there wasn't that inspiring portion in this debate.
>> Nam: We saw anti racism take centre stage in the last quarter of the debate which focused on
leadership.
How are Ontarians responding to that section of the debate?
>> Erin: That section -- so this is where Mr. Del Duca actually started to make up some ground.
They felt that -- now, again, not a lot.
There's a feeling among people that not enough is being done and that there was a lot of
frustration at that time.
Especially with what's going on in the space right now.
And the London family.
But, again, we didn't see come out ahead on that debate.
It was almost like a missed opportunity.
>> Nam: You mentioned earlier on a Mr. Ford won the debate by default.
Did he do what he needed to do in this debate to maintain his lead?
>> Erin: Yes.
Because that's all he had to do.
He had to look reasonable.
He had to look like he was -- he had a good plan.
That you could trust him to be competent.
He was running on competence.
You know, I got you through COVID.
I'm opening up the economy.
I got the vaccines out early.
Especially for the third wave.
You know, health care is a mess but he can blame that on Del Duca's previous government and
say I'm now investing.
I know what needs to be done because I've just lived through it.
I was dealing with the health care system every day.
And so that's what he is running on.
And he maintained that today.
Tonight.
There was no reason for people to feel that -- there was no gotcha there.
The other three who are attacking him did not make any leeway.
>> Nam: What about the New Democratic Parties leader, Andrea Horwath?
What should she focus on moving forward?
>> Erin: (Sigh).
>> Nam: That was a deep sigh.
>> Erin: Yeah, we're just seeing throughout this campaign, she's losing momentum.
She needs to have a very more forward-looking platform is what I would say.
People were saying she was spending too much time attacking Mr. Ford and attacking
Mr. Del Duca from 2018.
That did work in some parts.
It was more effective when Mr. Ford did it.
She needs to spend more time saying what she, Andrea Horwath would do.
What is her plan?
Can she pay for it?
Because that's always the criticism of the NDP.
But she's been in opposition for several years now.
So she's had enough time to observe the government and to have a forward-looking plan.
And that's the frustration people have is that she's not focusing on -- she doesn't have
that 19-point plan for affordability, for example, that Del Duca was able to talk about
tonight and people really liked that.
>> Nam: Speaking of Steven Del Duca, how did he perform tonight?
>> Erin: He didn't perform -- he wasn't a star.
That's for sure.
But, again, for people who are frustrated with the Ford government and just want change,
we saw that some of those votes tonight seemed to be going from Horwath to Del Duca.
And it's really just more of a who's less bad.
It wasn't like a, you know, this guy's got the right plan.
>> Nam: Finally, how should Mike Schreiner position the Ontario greens to move their vision
forward?
>> Erin: Well, Mike Schreiner, like I said, he came across very well tonight.
People really liked him.
Definitely saw people saying why can't he be the leader of... you know.
They liked him as a person.
To position himself, I think he needs to talk about affordability.
He can't just be about climate change.
Because right now, people are really, really concerned.
And he wasn't just go that tonight.
He did talk about affordability.
But I think a lot of his plan -- the greens are obviously people associate him almost exclusively
with climate change.
And people don't have confidence that they can form government.
So people, unfortunately, were we're seeing don't want to put their vote there when it looks
to be so close when Doug Ford is close to getting a majority government.
>> Nam: Erin, thank you so much for your time.
We'll see you back on the show next week.
Really do appreciate your insights.
>> Erin: Thanks, Nam.
>> Nam: Travel well.
>> Erin: Thanks.