Today on VisualPolitik we are going to present the most 2021 story of the year 2021. It goes
like this: thousands of Iraqi asylum seekers on the border shared by Poland and Belarus.
And what's so special about that? Let's see... take a look at the map.Iraq is here, Belarus
is here and Poland is here. You're thinking what I'm thinking, aren't you? What are Iraqis
doing crossing the border between Belarus and Poland? Well, that's what we're going
to tell you in this video.
What we have is this. On the Belarusian side, up to seven thousand Iraqis, but also Syrians,
Iranians, Afghans, Lebanese... They are on the border, and what they want is to enter
the European Union. Which way? Through the three EU countries that have the immense good
fortune of being Belarus' neighbours.
We are talking about Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. As you can imagine, none of them are
happy to suddenly see all these people on their border. And, to top it all off, it's
not like anyone’s being welcomed with open arms. Check it out:
(Violence erupts on Poland-Belarus border as Polish guards fire water cannon on migrants
throwing rocks. CNN)
Exactly, a hail of stones on one side, water cannons and tear gas on the other, migrants
trying to break down border posts, Poland reinforcing the border, Lithuania starting
to build a wall, NATO considering intervening... and all this has happened in less than a month.
The almost 7,500 miles or 1200 kilometres of border between Belarus and the European
Union have seen so much action that even the latest James Bond film would pale in comparison.
And you'll probably say, let's see, [host], you're painting it as a gargantuan crisis,
but seven thousand people between three countries is not that big a deal, is it? After all,
in 2015 the EU received more than a million asylum seekers and continues to do so. Well,
tell that to the prime minister of Poland. As you can see, for Poland, what is happening
on its border is a full-blown declaration of war. And if Mr Morawiecki was saying two
months ago that the EU is blackmailing him, here he is appealing to Brussels and to common
values. Now, in any case, Poland would not be the only victim in this story. Because
at the time of making this video, at least thirteen migrants have lost their lives. Remember
that we are also talking about families, we are also talking about children – even newborns
– and above all we are talking about winter.
(Boy, 14, 'dies from cold' on Belarus border as migrants 'weaponised' in escalating crisis
– Daily Mirror)
And the questions you might be pondering are, one: used as weapons by whom? Who is the bad
guy in this story, the evil mastermind behind it all? Two: what on earth are Iraqis doing
crossing the border between Poland and Belarus? Three, and where are they now? What was the
outcome of all this? Was it one of those stories we won't even remember tomorrow, or should
we really be worried? Today we are going to answer these questions, but first let's look
at a bit of history.
(THE MAN WHO WANTED TO BE A SUPERVILLAIN)
I know what some of you are thinking: surely Russia must be involved here. Because, of
course, we are talking about Belarus–Russia, a country that doesn't typically pull the
strings of international politics on its own.
And, indeed, there are people who say that everything that's happening now on the Belarusian
border is part of Putin's grand plan to destabilize Europe, in order to make Russia great again
and dominate the world.
But the truth is that, at least technically, it doesn't make much sense that this Belarusian
crisis is being orchestrated from Moscow. What’s more, it wouldn’t be the first
time that Belarus has imposed itself on the interests of its Russian big brother.
In this story it looks like Mr. Lukashenko is the sole author. And who is Lukashenko?
For those of you who are new to VisualPolitik and haven't yet seen all the videos we've
made about Belarus, I'm going to give you a spoiler: Belarus is a dictatorship.
What’s more, it is the last great dictatorship in Europe. And on top of that, it doesn't
try to disguise it at all, in fact it does the opposite. If a "dictator pride day" is
ever invented, Lukashenko would be the queen of the parade. Check it out.
(It's better to be a dictator than gay, declares Belarus President. The Times)
Yes, that’s right. Meet Aleksandr Lukashenko. Some kids want to be astronauts, or YouTubers.
He wanted to be a dictator. You heard the man. Let me make it even clearer:
Aleksandr Lukashenko is a man who wanted to be a supervillain.
And as far as that plan goes, he hasn’t done too badly: he has become the dictator
of a country of nine million inhabitants. He came to power 27 years ago, and he has
enjoyed it so much that he has decided to stay, if possible, forever.
And of course, as there is a growing part of the population that is not happy to live
under a dictatorship, the Belarusian regime has been gradually tightening its fist in
recent years.
Firstly, by banning protests, with fines, arrests, police charges and various repressions.
Secondly, by restricting freedom of the press. As of today, there are several media outlets
that have either had to be shut down or are inaccessible from Belarus. We are talking
about a full–blown offensive:
(Belarus journalists jailed for two years for live–streaming protest – SKY)
(Tut.by, a news site read by more than 40% of Belarusian internet users, has been blocked
and its editors questioned after their offices and houses were raided by authorities – The
Guardian)
Given all this, it should come as no surprise that Belarus is the country with the least
press freedom in all of Europe. Yes, it's even worse off than Turkey. And you can probably
imagine how politics works in this country: the last presidential elections were held
in August last year.
At first, things looked surprisingly good: Lukashenko was obviously the main candidate,
but there were also several opposition names on the provisional ballot that had popular
support. And there were even analysts who said: look, maybe it's time for a transition,
a new president, and maybe even a little bit of democracy.
If you've been following VisualPolitik for a while, you already know what happened because
we dedicated an entire video to it at the time. By the way, this is a great moment to
remind you to subscribe to this channel and to take a look at our Patreon page.
If you support us on Patreon, you will not only be collaborating with this project, you
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grow. It's a win-win.
But let's get back to today’s story. In case you don't remember what happened in the
latest Belarusian elections, here's a summary in three news items.
(Belarus bans two opposition candidates from running in elections – The Guardian)
(Belarus opposition figures detained before presidential vote – France24)
(Belarus election: Opposition leader Tikhanovskaya left 'for sake of her children' – BBC)
As you can imagine, when election day came, neither protests nor international pressure
were enough to guarantee even a minimum level of transparency. And with that, Lukashenko
began his sixth term in office more dictatorial than ever.
To make it clear, there are up to 800 political prisoners in Belarusian jails today. And no
one is safe, because Lukashenko's regime has very long arms. Just check out one of the
most surreal news stories of this year:
(Ryanair Flight Carrying An Opposition Journalist Is Forced To Land In Belarus – NPR)
That’s right: under the guise of a fake bomb threat, Belarus hijacked a Ryanair plane
that was flying from Greece to Lithuania, all to bring down an opposition journalist
and take him to prison.
Yes, a Ryanair plane! So, you know, next time you fly with a low-cost airline, don't complain
if the seat isn't comfortable, or if they don't let you take your suitcase on board.
Just be thankful that Belarus hasn't hijacked your flight!
Come on, if Lukashenko doesn't deserve a supervillain of the year award for that alone, I don't
know what else to tell you. Or, hang on, yes, what about this ultimate evil plan, the strategy
nominated for "2021 dictatorial screwballs" awards? We're going to look at that right
now.
(MORE MAXWELL SMART THAN SMART)
Before I talk about this idea of the century, I have to tell you one thing. Obviously, Lukashenko's
trickery does not only have an impact on Belarus. Remember that Ryanair flight: until May of
this year, no one thought that a country, however dictatorial, could hijack a commercial
airliner flying over its airspace in this way.
Of course, the European Union and others haven’t stood idly by. What they are doing is imposing
sanctions and other such measures. We are talking, for example, about an embargo on
arms and other goods that could be used for repression.
But above all, we are talking about sanctions with a name and a surname, against 166 representatives
of the regime. Their assets are frozen, and they cannot travel to or through the EU. Obviously,
Aleksandr Lukashenko himself is one of those sanctioned, and the EU does not recognize
his government.
Well, I think you can imagine what the dynamic is: Belarus takes one more step towards a
perfect dictatorship, the EU responds with a sanctions package. Belarus represses journalists,
another sanctions package.
Falsify elections, another. Hijack a plane, more sanctions. And here we have Mr Lukashenko
doing whatever he wants for decades even if his people have to suffer the consequences.
If you think being a dictator is easy, you are wrong. Then again, maybe if the EU is
your neighbour… you aren’t..
On the one hand, he wants to have the last word because he needs to project a strong
image, both to the population that still supports him and to the outside world. On the other
hand, tell me, what can Belarus do to fight against the EU?
And that's when this man, in his eagerness to be an evil genius, said, okay, how can
I attack the EU to get some revenge for these trade sanctions and, if possible, force them
to sit down at the table with me and recognize me as president? Can I attack them with my
army? Obviously not. Can I send terrorists there? No. Can I wage a trade war like Putin
once did with natural gas? No. Well, we're getting close to the climax of this thought
process.
I don't know whether Lukashenko has seen The Queen's Gambit and thinks he's a strategist,
or whether he just dreamed it up. But what you are about to see has happened in real
life. Check it out:
(Belarus dictator threatens to 'flood EU with drugs and migrants'. The Week)
Come on, doesn't that sound like a supervillain movie idea? Besides, it may seem surprising,
but when Lukashenko wants something, nothing is impossible. Let’s recap the moves.
Step one: to organize a migration crisis, the first thing you need are the migrants
themselves, right? And if you don't have them at hand, you have to bring them to you. How?
By organising a whole publicity campaign in countries where people have many reasons to
want to leave: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan and other hot spots. To convince them, promises
like this are enough:
(Common misinformation spread in the past included "every refugee receives a welcome
payment of 2,000 euros" – Euroactiv)
A welcome payment in Germany, a guaranteed job in the EU... These are some of the promises
behind this migration crisis.
Step two, let's get down to the logistics: how do we bring all these people to the EU's
doorstep? Very easily, by issuing Belarusian tourist visas like there's no tomorrow. Once
we have them, we put these "tourists" on Irish planes operated by a Belarusian airline. When
they arrive in Belarus, we bring them to the border and tell them where they need to go
to cross the border into Poland and get to Germany. Et voilà, the magic trick of pulling
a migration crisis out of the bag is done. And you're going to ask me: do we have any
certainty that Belarus is helping the migrants get to the border? Well, let’s see:
Come on, repeat what Mr Lukashenko said: to dissemble is for the weak. Now that you know
what this master plan consists of, tell me: what could go wrong? Well, that is what we
are going to look at right now.
(THE NEW HYBRID WAR)
Sure, maybe Lukashenko was convinced that Brussels would insist on accepting and distributing
migrants and asylum seekers, Poland would oppose it, as it did in 2016, and that, with
this, the EU's eastern and western blocs would enter into a civil war to the death.
But the truth is that the EU has shown itself to be rather more cohesive than Lukashenko
expected. The European Commission has earmarked $792,000 for humanitarian aid and the Red
Cross is operating in the area.
Poland and Lithuania are reinforcing their borders, there is a lot of room for improvement,
but, at least for the moment, the situation is de–escalating. And this is because the
first thing the EU did was to turn off the migration tap.
Firstly, they talked to the countries of origin and transit, pressuring them, for example,
with the possibility of taking away development aid. Secondly, they also put pressure on airlines
by threatening them with sanctions.
As a result, transit countries such as Uzbekistan, Turkey or the United Arab Emirates began to
restrict flights to Belarus. In addition, the Iraqi government has allocated planes
to start bringing its people back.
(Hundreds of migrants arrive back in Iraq on flight from Belarus – France24)
And you may say: so that's it, isn't it? This is a very specific story that happened in
Belarus, and it has no repercussions for the rest of the world? Well, surprising as it
may seem, this is not the first time that migrants and asylum seekers have been used
as a political weapon.
We saw this with Turkey in 2015 and more recently with Morocco. Turkey was in the path of one
of the main migration routes after the Syrian war, and that is precisely why it was able
to impose its conditions in the 2016 migration agreement.
Basically, Ankara received European funds in exchange for controlling the access of
migrants and asylum seekers to the EU.
Today, the country remains a key gatekeeper, so whether it likes it or not, Brussels has
to rely on Erdogan. And this year, in Spain, we saw a migration crisis organised by Morocco,
another country that acts as a migration filter for Europe.
After a Sahrawi leader was hospitalized in the northern Spanish city of Logroño – what
a coincidence – thousands of migrants suddenly started arriving in Ceuta [The-oo-ta].
As you can see, migrants and asylum seekers are indeed used to lobby in international
politics. And okay, Belarus is also a country that borders the EU. But unlike Turkey and
Morocco, Belarus is not in the middle of a migration flow.
If there is one thing the Polish prime minister and Ursula Von Der Leyen agree on, it is that
Lukashenko is trying to orchestrate a hybrid war with a completely artificial migration
crisis.
So the question is: was it worth it? Well, it certainly wasn't. OK, Lukashenko has managed
to get everyone's attention. He has even spoken twice with Angela Merkel. But that's where
the advantages end.
Besides, let's see what he does with the migrants who don't make it to Poland, but don't return
to Iraq either. If they stay in Minsk, Lukashenko will most likely "flood" himself with all
those asylum seekers.
Of course, this is not necessarily bad for Belarus, but it could lead to political problems.
Remember that, unlike Europe, Belarus does not have sufficient resources to integrate
all these migrants.
Nor does it have a labour market that can absorb them. We’ll be keeping an eye on
how events unfold in the coming months. But everything indicates that Lukashenko wanted
to be a supervillain from a Bond movie and he has indeed become a kind of Doctor Evil.
But now the question is over to you: what do you think of Lukashenko's plan, do you
know of any other cases where migrants are used as weapons? And how would you act in
this case if you were Brussels? You can leave your answers in the comments.
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