Lecture 21, this is called the 20th century, a new phase.
A theme to keep in mind here as we talk about this time period, is as a world historian
– can we maintain contact with these earlier patterns that we’ve been discussing throughout
the class?
Some challenges for us – The 20th century is a time of – in the words of one historian
– a social catastrophe.
How do we deal with this?
World Wars, ethnic cleansing, genocide – these things are going to be discussed over the
next few lectures.
Another challenge – Western influence remains strong but it’s now contested around the
world.
Another – Modernization continues at its own pace in different regions.
We’ve already seen how the world does not move at the same pace.
Two key issues – We don’t know the end of the story, so it’s hard to know just
how these patterns are going to develop.
Another issue – We still live with the consequences of the past century.
Of course, we have the World Wars of 1914 to 1945; we had the Great Depression; a number
of significant revolutions; we had the Cold War from 1945 to 1990; we had the emergence
of the United States as the only world superpower.
These thirty- or forty-year chunks of time are not really sufficient for a world historian;
it doesn’t allow us to really view long-term developing patterns, does it?
The World Wars signaled a decline of European influence.
The Cold War framework has crumbled as well – the nuclear arms race, the bipolar world
– by bipolar we mean one axis revolving around the communist world and the other axis
revolving around the capitalist world.
The competition between capitalism and communism, that’s finished.
Are there new patterns, new themes, that we can identify?
How long does the long 19th century last?
Is it over?
Are we still living with the consequences of it?
Let’s look at some big patterns here, socially.
I think we should point out that aristocracy and its power is now mostly gone except for
ceremonial purposes.
The aristocracy, the traditional ruling class, is now replaced by a rising class of professionals
– in government; business; media; academia.
We live increasingly in an urban, as opposed to an agricultural, world – industry over
farming.
In the 20th century, political regimes go from monarchies to republics; but of course,
we also see the rise of authoritarian regimes in the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany, and we
see the rise of communist systems as well.
Let’s stick with this, the big patterns, where we discuss social issues.
Gender relationships and gender expectations are obviously changing as well.
The traditional patriarchy is increasingly replaced by reforms that try to provide equal
rights for women, among others.
Clearly this change is not worldwide, nor is it complete by any means.
We have cultural changes, obviously, taking root in the 20th century – communism; nationalism;
consumerism; the faith and science – but these have not replaced the traditional world
religions.
No new and obvious pattern of faith or belief has emerged from the chaos of the 20th century.
Another long-running theme here is the decline of the West.
It’s a relative decline.
It’s not absolute.
The United States remains the world’s most powerful country.
The loss of colonies by the great powers, this has not crippled European culture or
European economies.
How did we deal with World War I and World War II?
Did we look at this as an ongoing civil war in the West?
The West is no longer simply able to impose its will on the rest of the world.
Western-military dominance is no longer decisive.
Why?
Well we have the rise of a number of factors that limit Western power.
Guerilla warfare is one that comes to mind immediately.
Remember Mao Tse Tung’s famous quote, “The guerilla must move among the people as a fish
swims in the sea.”
Guerilla warfare makes it difficult for Western armies to pick out the enemy.
If the enemy would dress appropriately so we would know he’s the enemy, then Western
armies are generally very effective at killing.
But when the enemy and the civilians look the same, then there’s a certain iron logic
here that to win, you have to kill everybody, and of course, Western armies are not prepared
to do that either.
Colonial resistance in urban areas is difficult for the West to contend with.
Think of Algeria, think of Iraq.
This urban fighting is very different because again, you’re mixing in civilians with enemy
combatants.
Western military power is often nullified by these factors.
Let’s face it, what does victory in Afghanistan or Iraq look like?
The average American would have an extremely difficult time answering that question.
Western military power is now successfully contested.
Again, Vietnam, with the withdrawal of the United States – Afghanistan, more recently
– again, with ongoing withdrawal of U.S. forces.
Post World War II decolonization takes place in this Cold War context of a competition
between the Soviet Union and its allies and the United States and its allies.
The Western powers now impose a less-formal influence in the world.
I’ve heard some people refer to it as a soft empire.
Western power is now often exercised through consumerism and through cultural artifacts
– films; music; clothing; celebrity.
In fact, cultural imperialism has become a topic among historians, where we look at the
influence of Hollywood movies, hip hop, DVDs, clothing, McDonald’s, Levi’s, etcetera,
etcetera – a softer empire.
Some new themes that we need to at least keep in mind – Will the East rise as the West
declines?
Will a new dominant historical actor appear?
How about Islam?
Has Islam awakened from a long slumber, and now we’re all going to have to deal with
its awakening for the next century?
Think of the conquest of outer space.
This has had a dramatic scientific and technological impact.
It does not seem to have had a deep impact on society as yet.
Think of how we wage war today, total war, where the state has access to propaganda;
great economic resources; atomic weapons; smart weapons; and more recently, of course,
if you watch the news you’ll see that we have been decapitating Isis and Al-Qaeda with
drones in the Middle East.
This is a new and dangerous time to be alive.
Global population increase – Well from two to six billion, over the past century, new
patterns of immigration with this vast population – from Latin America; Africa; Asia to Western
Europe; Canada; Australia; the United States; Japan.
Increasingly heterogeneous populations, increasingly sophisticated cosmopolitan populations.
Now will this hinder old-fashioned nationalism, this mixing of all these different types of
people?
What about global environmental change?
This has become a highly-politicized topic; we’re talking here mainly about the melting
of glaciers and the icecaps, rising sea levels.
A potential for future conflict here, of course, is over water rights.
Environmental change could potentially impact agriculture and how to feed and ever-growing
population.
India and China are now rapidly moving into the consumer culture long enjoyed by the West;
this is going to put increasing demands on resources – on food and water, consumer
goods, energy resources.
Of course, increasing demand usually means prices go up.
It creates scarcity.
These are long-term problems that we’re going to have to grapple with as a species.
Technology – Well, we have an explosion in communication and transportation technology.
This creates a shrinking world.
The earth is much smaller today than it was a hundred years ago.
It’s smaller than it was thirty years ago, with radio; television; the internet; air
travel.
Species are now being delivered via ship and planes to new areas where they often destroy
the indigenous lifeforms.
This is sometimes referred to as the Anthropocene Extinction Event, man-made and usually inadvertent,
whereby species hitch rides on our ships and planes and go to places where they don’t
belong, creating havoc in that environment.
Let’s draw some conclusions here, on this 20th century.
Human brutality – We seem to have crossed the line in the 20th century, so that civilians
become targets just as much as enemy combatants.
We have large-scale slaughter of select peoples in the 20th century – think of the Turks
and the genocide against the Armenians in the First World War; Stalin and the Collectivization
of Agriculture in Ukraine in the early 30s.
I still haven’t seen a final figure.
It seems like the last one I saw was seven- to ten-million people starved to death in
the Collectivization of Agriculture.
Think about the Japanese rape of Nanking in 1937, where the Japanese army loses its mind
and acts in the most bestial fashion.
Think of Stalin and the Polish Officer Corps, the slaughter at Katyn in 1940; Hitler and
the Holocaust in the 1940s.
Think about Rwanda, the Hutus and the slaughter of the Tutsi’s in 1994.
The Bosnian Muslims in the Yugoslav civil war in the mid-90s; the Sudanese civil war
that continues today.
Will this sort of large-scale destruction of the historical ‘other’ – will it
continue?
Think about the impact of technology here in conclusion – I mentioned a moment ago,
we have a shrinking planet due to communications and transportation.
This increasingly mixes people together.
They begin to tolerate differences.
Is this going to increase or lessen nationalism?
Is it going to enhance chances for war or lessen chances for war as globalization continues,
and we may in time, in the distance future, form a truly global society; although, as
you can see from our recent election, this is highly contested.
And finally, impact of medicine – Increasingly effective medical regimes will extend human
life.
Much larger populations combined with larger life spans, or longer life spans, will put
great pressure on the earth’s resources.
Will this competition for scarce resources provoke war, or encourage cooperation?
Big questions.
Thank you for your attention.