>> THIS IS A 3500 TON FRIGATE.
THAT WAS THE FLAGSHIP VESSEL OF
UKRAINE'S RELATIVELY SMALL NAVY,
UNTIL IT WAS SUNK NOT BY
RUSSIAN FORCES ACTUALLY BUT BY
UKRAINE ITSELF.
THE SHIP HAD BEEN DOCKED FOR
REPAIRS IN THE PORTS CITY OF
MIKE LEE OFF AND ON THE BLACK
SEA COAST WHEN THE WAR BROKE
OUT LAST WEEK.
AND THE CAPTAIN OF THE SHIP
ACTUALLY FEARED THAT THOSE
REPAIRS WOULD NOT BE FINISHED
IN TIME TO PREVENT THE CROWN
JEWEL OF UKRAINE'S NAVY FROM
FALLING INTO RUSSIAN HANDS.
HE DID NOT WANT TO TAKE THAT
RISK.
SO HE BASICALLY CARRIED OUT
ORDERS TO SINK THE SHIP.
UKRAINE'S DEFENSE MINISTER
DESCRIBED THE CAPTAINS
PREDICTING IT THIS WAY, SAYING,
IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE A MORE
DIFFICULT DECISION FOR A
COURAGEOUS MAN AND HIS CREW,
BUT WE WILL BUILD A NEW FLEET.
RUSSIAN FORCES ARE WAGING AS WE
HEARD AN ALL OUT ASSAULT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN REGION OF UKRAINE,
WHICH IS THE ONLY REGION OF
UKRAINE THAT ACTUALLY HAS
ACCESS TO THE SEA.
HERE SOME THE FIRST UKRAINIAN
CITY TO BE CAPTURED BY RUSSIAN
FORCES IS QUICKLY RUNNING OUT
OF MEDICAL SUPPLIES.
MARIO POLL ALSO IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN
UNDER SIEGE CUT OFF FROM ACCESS
TO THE WATER, POWER, FOOD
SUPPLIES.
NOW IT'S GOING ON FOR DAYS.
IN THE SOUTHERN CITY OF ODESSA
WHERE WE JUST GOT THAT LIVE
REPORT, THE POPULATION THERE IS
ACTUALLY GETTING READY TO MOUNT
A DEFENSIVE OF THEIR CITY AFTER
UNVERIFIED REPORTS SUGGESTING A
FLEET OF WASHINGTON WARSHIPS
HEADING INTO THEIR DIRECTION.
THAT IS THE SITUATION RIGHT NOW
IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE.
BUT THE ASSAULT BY PUTIN'S ARMY
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WHILE HORRIFYING IN ITS
OWN RIGHT, IS ACTUALLY MOVING
MUCH MUCH LOWER.
A 40-MILE CONVOY OF RUSSIAN
TROOPS REMAIN STALLED OUTSIDE
THE CAPITAL CITY OF KYIV.
AND DESPITE THE HELLISH
SHELLING THAT THE CAPITOL IN
KHARKIV THAT WE HAVE SEEN NIGHT
AFTER NIGHT, SOME U.S.
OFFICIALS ARE ACTUALLY
REPORTEDLY SURPRISED BY THE
RISK AVERSE OR PROTESTS THAT
RUSSIA HAS TAKEN WITH ITS VAST
AIR POWER AGAINST UKRAINE'S
MUCH MUELLER AIR FORCE I.
AS ONE RETIRED THREE STAR
GENERAL TOLD VOID OR'S, THE
RUSSIANS ARE DISCOVERING THAT
COORDINATING MULTI DOMAIN
OPERATIONS IS NOT EASY, AND
THAT THEY ARE NOT AS GOOD AS
THEY PRESUME THEY WERE.
WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT TO SEE IN
THE COMING DAYS IS PUTIN
CONTINUES HIS SIEGE AGAINST THE
PEOPLE OF UKRAINE.
JOINING US NOW FOR MORE ON THAT
PROBABLY, FORMER MARINE CORPS
--
AND SENIOR FELLOW AT THE
FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH
INSTITUTE.
ROB, IT'S GOOD TO SEE YOU
AGAIN.
THANKS FOR JOINING US.
LET'S ASSESS THIS.
WHAT DO YOU THINK IT IS THAT
RUSSIAN FORCES THEY ARE DOING
BETTER IN THE SOUTH IT SEEMS
AND THEY ARE IN THE NORTH.
I'M CURIOUS TO GET YOUR
THOUGHTS ON WHY THAT MIGHT BE.
AND IS THAT A SIGN OF RUSSIA
AND IF IT'S AN'S CASE OF
FACILITIES IN THE SOUTH?
OR A SIGN OF BETTER UKRAINIAN
FORCES AND POSTURE IN THE NORTH?
I >> WELL THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
I THINK IT'S A COMBINATION OF
THINGS.
BUT I THINK ONE OF THEM IS THAT
UKRAINIAN FORCES DECIDED --
WHAT WHATEVER IS TO THEY HAVE
TO DEFEND AND WHAT AREAS CAN
THEY TRADE TIME FOR SPACE.
AND SO I THINK THAT'S WITH THE
DOING IN THE SOUTH.
YOU GET A VERY GOOD BRIEFING OF
WHAT'S GOING ON.
ULTIMATELY, THEY'RE CONTINUING
TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE SOUTH --
THEY TOOK THE SAUDI OF ARAB
HOEVEN YESTERDAY.
WHERE THE NUCLEAR PLANT IS,
PUSHING TOWARDS AREVA.
--
MORALISTIC SURROUNDED IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
BUT AS WE'VE SEEN IN THE LAST
FEW DAYS, HAVE THE BIG CITIES
IN THE NORTHEAST HAVE NOT
FALLEN.
SO KHARKIV, SUMY, TOONIE GULF,
AND OBVIOUSLY CAVE.
UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE STILL
HOLDING THOSE.
--
IT'S DIFFICULT FOR UKRAINE'S
MILITARY TO FIGHT A CONDITIONAL
FIGHT WITH RUSSIAN MILITARY.
--
IT NEGATES A LOT OF THE
STRENGTH FOR RUSSIAN MILITARY
AND I THINK THAT'S WHAT THEY'RE
BEST REGGIE'S.
>> DO YOU HAVE A SENSE OF HOW
AT THIS CURRENT MOMENT THE
UKRAINIAN MILITARY IS MANAGING
ITS SUPPLY LINES?
I MEAN, WHAT HAPPENS TO
UKRAINE'S MILITARY IF RUSSIA
DOES MANAGE TO CUT OFF THEIR
ACCESS TO THE SEA?
WE KNOW THAT THE U.S. AND
WESTERN COUNTRIES ARE TRYING TO
RESUPPLY VARIOUS UKRAINIAN
POSITIONS.
DO WE KNOW IF THAT'S HAPPENING
BY AIRLIFT, LANDRIEU, TO I.C.E.?
>> SO, I'M NOT SURE.
AND ONE THING THAT'S GOING TO
--
THERE'S MUCH MORE INFORMATION
ON WHAT'S RUSSIA'S DOING THAT
THERE IS WITH UKRAINE MILITARY.
AND THERE'S A VARIETY OF
REASONS FOR THAT.
AS LONG AS THE WESTERN BORDER
OF UKRAINE IS OPEN TO THESE
NATO MEMBERS, BALL HOPEFULLY
NATO CAN CONTINUE TO SUPPLY.
IT EVEN IF THE NAVAL ACCESS IS
CUT OFF, THAT LAND BORDER WILL
STILL BE VERY SIGNIFICANT.
AND ULTIMATELY RUSSIAN --
THERE'S NO EASY WAY TO CUT THEM
OFF IN THE TIME BEING IN THAT
THE LAND --
IN ADDITION, UKRAINIANS AIR
DEFENSES ARE STILL CAPABLE.
THEIR AIR FORCE IS STILL
OPERATING.
AND SO RUSSIA --
IN WESTERN UKRAINE BECAUSE IT
INTERDICT NATO'S FLOODLIGHTS.
>> THAT BRINGS UP A REALLY
INTERESTING QUESTIONING ABOUT
THE AIRSPACE OF UKRAINE.
--
IN SYRIA, I THINK IT TIP THE
BALANCE IN THAT FIGHT BETWEEN
THE SYRIANS AND THE OPPOSITION.
BUT UKRAINE'S AIRSPACE, AS YOU
SAID, REMAINS CONTESTED.
AND I THINK IT HAS A LOT OF
PEOPLE SCRATCHING THEIR HEADS.
WHY DO YOU THINK WE ARE NOT
SEEING EVEN MORE AGGRESSION
FROM RUSSIA'S MUCH LARGER AND
PRESUMABLY AT ONE POINT A
PRETTY SOPHISTICATED AIR FORCE?
>> SO, IT'S STILL VERY
SURPRISING.
I THINK AT THIS POINT WE, HAVE
TO KIND OF LOOK AT THE
CAPABILITIES OF THE RUSSIAN AIR
FORCE AND START QUESTIONING
WHETHER OR NOT THEY'RE CAPABLE
OF DOING CERTAIN OPERATIONS.
THAT THE U.S. AIR FORCE IS
CAPABLE OF.
--
THEIR ABILITY TO SUPPRESS --
HAS STRUGGLED TO DO SO, THEY
STRUGGLE TO KNOCK OUT THE
UKRAINIAN FORCE.
THE UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE
CONTINUES TO WRECK HAVOC ON
THEIR SUPPLY LINES INCLUDING --
AND SO, IT APPEARS THAT RUSSIAN
AIR FORCES --
AND I THINK ONE OF THE
IMPORTANT THINGS, IN PREVIOUS
CONFLICTS IN 2014, 2015 --
MOSTLY BECAUSE OF --
IT IN SYRIA, IT HAS PLAYED A
KEY ROLE BUT THEY HAVEN'T GONE
AGAINST A CAPABLE AIR TO FOREST
FENCE AND SOME.
AND SO IT'S BASICALLY BEEN
OPERATING WITH RELATIVE
IMPUNITY --
AND THEN JUST WORKING ON TARGET
PROCESSES.
BUT RIGHT NOW THIS OPERATION IS
MUCH MUCH MORE COMPLEX.
IT'S MUCH LARGER.
ANY OF MUCH LARGER RUSSIAN
GROUND FORCES ON THE GROUND
THAT NEED AERIAL SUPPORT.
AND SO ALL THOSE FACTORS ARE