LIZ: WE HOPE YOU HEARD THE
BREAKING NEWS JUST MOMENTS AGO
BUT IF YOU DIDN'T, PRESIDENT
TRUMP SAYS HE IS QUOTE,
TERMINATING THE INTERNATIONAL
NUCLEAR TREATY, SAYING THAT IT'S
MEANT TO SEND A SIGNAL TO RUSSIA
AND CHINA, ADDING THAT IT'S
QUOTE, A THREAT TO WHOEVER YOU
WANT, YOU CAN'T PLAY THAT GAME
WITH ME.
SAYS THE RUSSIANS HAVE BEEN
VIOLATING THIS TREATY AND THE
U.S. HAS TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT
IT.
OUR NEXT GUEST IS A LEADING
ANALYST OF POLITICS IN SOCIETY
IN RUSSIA AND THE UKRAINE AND
HAS EVEN ADVISED GOVERNMENTS ON
DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS ON EURASIAN
CONFLICTS.
MATTHEW ROJANSKY JOINS US LIVE.
DO YOU BELIEVE THE PRESIDENT?
ARE WE OUT?
IS HE TERMINATING THIS DEAL?
>> I BELIEVE HIM.
THE TIMING OF EXACTLY WHEN THE
DIPLOMATS WOULD SEND AN
INSTRUMENT INDICATING THAT
TECHNICALLY THE TREATY IS NOT IN
FORCE ANYMORE, WHO KNOWS.
BUT THE WHITE HOUSE HAS TAKEN
THE DECISION.
THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION
COMMUNICATED FOR MANY YEARS TO
THE RUSSIANS, CALLING THEIR
BLUFF, LOOK, WE KNOW YOU'RE IN
VIOLATION OF THIS TREATY, WE ARE
GOING TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT,
WE ARE GOING TO DO SOMETHING
ABOUT IT.
THIS IS NOW THE ADMINISTRATION
SAYING AND WHAT WE ARE GOING TO
DO IS, WE ARE GOING TO PULL OUT.
YOU CAN'T HAVE YOUR CAKE AND EAT
IT, TOO, ANYMORE.
I THINK THAT'S THE MESSAGE JOHN
BOLTON TOOK TO MOSCOW TODAY, AND
MY ASSESSMENT IS THE RUSSIANS
ARE NOT GOING TO JUST GO BACK
INTO COMPLIANCE.
THEY AREN'T GOING TO SAY OH,
YEAH, YOU CALLED US OUT, JUST
KIDDING, WE MEAN TO BE IN
COMPLIANCE, WE'RE BACK IN THE
TREATY.
FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES,
THE TREATY IS DEAD.
LIZ: THIS SURE LOOKS LIKE IT'S
RIGHT OUT OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S
M.O. AND HIS PLAYBOOK, AND
THAT'S NOT A BAD THING, BECAUSE
IT WAS PRESIDENT OBAMA BACK IN
2014 WHO FIRST FLAGGED THE
RUSSIANS AND SAID YOU'RE
VIOLATING THIS TREATY.
IT GOT WORSE AND WORSE, AND NO
ONE DID ANYTHING ABOUT IT.
AND NOW PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS TO
GET OUT THERE AND SAY OR HE
FEELS HE HAS TO GET OUT THERE
AND SAY WE'RE OUT.
HERE'S WHAT'S BANNED.
ANYTHING FROM ABOUT 500
KILOMETERS TO 5500 KILOMETERS IN
THESE GROUND-TO-AIR MISSILES.
WHO IS HURT MOST, IF THE U.S.
PULLS OUT OF THIS TREATY?
>> SO THE TREATY WAS DESIGNED
AND SIGNED IN THE CONTEXT OF THE
COLD WAR, WHICH MEANT THAT THE
UNITED STATES AND SOVIET UNION
WERE FACING EACH OTHER
PRINCIPALLY IN EUROPE.
THAT WAS GOING TO BE THE MAIN
BATTLEGROUND.
THE IDEA WAS LET'S PULL OUT ALL
THE WEAPONS THAT DON'T PROMOTE
STABILITY BETWEEN THE TWO
SUPERPOWERS AND STABILITY IS
BASICALLY, YOU KNOW, WE CAN HIT
MOSCOW, THEY CAN HIT WASHINGTON,
BUT NEITHER SIDE WANTS TO START
A NUCLEAR WAR.
IF YOU HAVE STUFF THAT, FOR
EXAMPLE, WOULD ONLY BLOW UP
COUNTRIES IN BETWEEN, THERE
MIGHT BE A TEMPTATION FOR EITHER
MOSCOW OR WASHINGTON TO START A
WAR, THINKING THAT THE
CASUALTIES WOULDN'T BE BORNE BY
THEIR COUNTRY.
NOW, IT'S BAD IF THAT TREATY
GOES AWAY TODAY, BECAUSE
OBVIOUSLY, EUROPEANS WILL BE
MORE CONCERNED.
THEY MIGHT TAKE MATTERS INTO
THEIR OWN HANDS, MAYBE
DEVELOPING THEIR OWN NUCLEAR
WEAPONS OR WANTING TO HAVE MORE
WEAPONS ON THEIR TERRITORY.
THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A
DESTABILIZING FACTOR.
THE REAL ISSUE ON THE SIDELINE
IS CHINA.
THE RUSSIANS ARE DEVELOPING
THESE SYSTEMS NOT BECAUSE THEY
WANT TO THREATEN THE EUROPEANS
OR AMERICANS.
IT'S BECAUSE THEY WANT TO DETER
THE CHINESE, RIGHT.
THIS IS THEIR KIND OF FRENEMY OF
A PARTNER IN BEIJING.
CHINA, AS A MATTER OF GEOGRAPHY
IS IN INTERMEDIATE RANGE FROM
RUSSIAN TERRITORY.
LIZ: I JUST WANT TO SAY, BECAUSE
WE ARE SHOWING NUCLEAR WEAPONS
RELATED STOCKS HERE.
EVERYONE FROM RAYTHEON, BOEING
ANIE
IS IN THERE, CERTAINLY.
IT'S NOT LIKE THREE ARE CHARGING
HIGHER.
THEY ARE FALLING MORE THAN THEY
ARE RISING.
THAT'S THE QUESTION AT LEAST FOR
OUR BUSINESS AUDIENCE, IS THIS
SOMETHING WHERE YOU EVENTUALLY
SEE IT COMING TO AT LEAST A
CLOSE BUT RUSSIANS DON'T ADMIT
TO ANYTHING.
THEY DIDN'T ADMIT TO SMEARING A
NERVE AGENT ON SERGEI SKRIPAL'S
FACE IN THE UK.
THEY DON'T ADMIT ANYTHING.
>> YOU HAVE TWO SIDES HERE IN
WHAT HAS TO BE A NEGOTIATION AT
THE END OF THE DAY.
THERE MAY BE AN ARMS RACE
ELEMENT TO IT BUT AT THE END OF
THE DAY, NEITHER SIDE WANTS A
NUCLEAR WAR.
THE POSITION PRESIDENT TRUMP IS
STAKING OUT IS WE ARE WILLING TO
GO THERE TO AN ARMS RACE IF YOU
DON'T ADMIT THAT YOU ARE IN
VIOLATION OF THE TREATY AND GO
BACK INTO COMPLIANCE.
THE RUSSIAN POSITION IS EQUALLY
TOUGH.
THEY SAY NOTHING DOING, WE ARE
NOT IN VIOLATION.
WE ARE STARTING FROM TWO VERY
FAR APART POINTS IN THE
NEGOTIATION BUT THERE'S GOING TO
BE A NEGOTIATION.
I THINK WHAT MARKETS MAY BE
READING IN THIS IS THAT
ACTUALLY, THE BOLTON VISIT,
THOUGH THEY ARE NOT ANNOUNCING
IT PUBLICLY, MAY BE THE FIRST
STEP IN THAT NEGOTIATION.
THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT NEW START
WHICH DEALS WITH LONG RANGE
STRATEGIC CAPABILITY, AND THEY
ARE TALKING ABOUT THE GLOBAL
NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION TREATY,
THE ONE THAT DEALS WITH THE
IRANS AND NORTH KOREAS OF THE
WORLD.
LIZ: AS WE FINISH, YES OR NO, IS
THIS THE START OF A NEW COLD
WAR?
>> I THINK WE ARE ALREADY DEEP
IN SOMETHING THAT SMELLS A LOT
LIKE A NEW COLD WAR.