ALWAYS MOVE IN THE SAME
DIRECTION, IT'S HARD TO BE
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT WHAT WILL GET
THROUGH TO THE PUBLIC WHO ARE
NO BETTER INFORMED.
>> A LOT OF PEOPLE THOUGHT
THIS EMPLOYMENT REPORT WOULD
BE SHOWING THAT WITH THE TAX
CUTS AND EVERY THING ELSE
BUSINESSES WOULD BE HIRING
MORE WORKERS.
IT TURNS OUT THEY HIRED FEWER
THAN THOUGHT.
I KNOW THERE'S VARIATIONS TO
THIS.
I THINK THAT MIGHT'VE SHOWN
SOMETHING ELSE.
WE ADDED 164,000 JOBS IN
APRIL.
A LOT OF PEOPLE THOUGHT IT
WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
THAN THAT AND SOME ARE GETTING
A LITTLE IMPATIENT, FRUSTRATED
THAT THE TAX-CUT GAIN HASN'T
BEEN BIGGER.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> SHORT-TERM STATISTICS ARE
HARD TO PUT A LOT OF RELIANCE
ON ESPECIALLY SINCE MANY OF
THESE ARE REVISED MONTHS AFTER
THEY COME OUT.
>> YOU MENTION OUR ECONOMIST
THAT SAID IT'S A NOTHING
BURGER.
NANCY PELOSI SAID IT HASN'T
AMOUNTED TO BE NEARLY AS
ADVANTAGEOUS.
MARCO RUBIO SAYING HE WISHES
INDIVIDUALS GOT MORE OUT OF
THIS.
WHAT ARE THEY SAYING?
>> I'M NOT AT ALL SURE WHAT
THEY'RE SAYING.
THE SHORT-TERM NUMBERS DON'T
USUALLY TELL YOU A LOT.
IF I LOOK BACK AT THE PRIOR
STATEMENT OF NANCY PELOSI, I
DO NOT HAVE AN AWFUL LOT OF
CONFIDENCE.
THEY HAVE BEEN WRONG BIG TIME
BEFORE.
>> WHAT ABOUT PAUL KRUGMAN?
ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT THAT ONE
ADDING TO THE DEFICIT OR THE
$9 TRILLION IN ADDED SPENDING
THAT WILL BE ADDED TO THE
DEFICIT AND DEBT OVER THE
YEARS.
WHAT YOU MAKE OF IT.
>> AGAIN, YOU'RE RIGHT BUT
HE'S TAKEN A LOT OF POSITIONS
THAT ARE INDEFENSIBLE SO I'M
NOT THE LEAST BIT SURPRISED
IT'S TAKEN ANOTHER ONE.
NEIL: DO YOU THINK TAX CUTS
SHOULD BE PAID FOR, WE LOOK AT
IT AS THE SAME AS SPENDING,
YOU OFFER A TAX-CUT PAY FOR
IT, MAKE SURE IT BALANCES OUT.
>> YOU CAN BE SURE OF
ANYTHING.
ALL THE GOVERNMENT CAN DO IS
CHANGE THE TAX RATE AND HOW
THE ECONOMY WILL RESPOND
DEPENDS ON A LOT OF OTHER
THINGS.
IN A NUMBER OF DEMOCRATIC AND
REPUBLICAN IN MINISTRATIONS OF
THE YEARS, MY COLLEAGUES LIKE
ALL THE ADMINISTRATIONS, TAX
RATES WERE CUT AND TAX REVENUE
ROSE.
YOU CAN'T JUST GO WITH A
ONE-TO-ONE CORRELATION.
THE OTHER THING IS PEOPLE WHO
ARGUE AGAINST TAX CUTS SAY THE
DEFICITS ROSE.
THERE'S NO AMOUNT OF MONEY
THAT CONGRESS CANNOT
OUTSPEND.
NEIL: UNDER EITHER PARTY.
>> RIGHT.
THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION
COLLECTED MORE TAX REVENUE
THAN ANY PREVIOUS A
MINISTRATION IN THE HISTORY OF
THE COUNTRY.
THERE IS A DEFICIT BECAUSE
CONGRESS SPENT EVEN MORE THAN
THAT.
THE DEFICIT IS NOT VERY MUCH
OF A GUIDE.
YOU FIRST HAVE TO KNOW DID THE
REVENUE GO UP OR DIDN'T.
>> MONEY COMES IN BUT IT GOES
OUT MUCH FASTER.
NEIL: IF THE HOUSE WERE TO
CHANGE HANDS, I KNOW YOU DON'T
LIKE GETTING INTO POLITICS BUT
ALREADY THEY HAVE PROMISED TO
REWORK THAT TAX-CUT AND START
FROM SCRATCH.
THEN WHAT?
WHAT WOULD YOU ENVISION?
>> I WOULD ENVISION IF THEY
CUT THE TAX RATE, IF THEY
RAISE THE TAX RATE UNDER
CURRENT CONDITIONS, YOU WOULD
HAVE A SLOWDOWN IN THE
ECONOMY.
SOME PEOPLE WHO HAVE JOBS NOW
PROBABLY WOULDN'T HAVE THEM
YEAR FROM NOW.
NEIL: SO THE FEDERAL RESERVE
LOOKS AT THIS, IF YOU'RE
WORRIED ABOUT THE ECONOMY
OVERHEATING OR UNEMPLOYMENT
GOING TO LOW OR BUSINESSES
RUNNING OUT OF POTENTIAL
WORKERS OR POOL OF WORKERS,
THAT WOULD SIGNAL A LOT OF
RATE INCREASES WHICH WOULD
OFFSET WHATEVER YOU DO TAX
CUTS.
>> I ASSUME SO.
NEIL: THAT WOULD PROBABLY BE A
GOOD PROBLEM TO HAVE.
>> YES, BUT PREDICTING WHAT
THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL DO
AND TRYING TO PREDICT WHAT THE
CONSEQUENCES WILL BE IS REALLY
A HAZARDOUS GAME.
NEIL: HOW DO YOU THINK
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS DOING?
>> OTHER THAN I EXPECTED AND
BETTER THAN A LOT OF OTHER
PEOPLE EXPECTED.
I THINK THE PEOPLE AROUND HIM,
MANY OF THEM ARE VERY GOOD
PEOPLE.
IT'S AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF
ADMINISTRATIONS.
IT'S NOT CLEAR JUST WHY THINGS
ARE THE WAY THEY ARE BUT THEY
ARE WHAT THEY ARE AND WHAT
THEY ARE IS BY AND LARGE
BETTER.
NEIL: HE'S TOUGH ON TRADE,
TOUGH WITH THE CHINESE, OUR
DELEGATION IS COMING BACK TO
BEIJING AND THEY WEREN'T
EXPECTING HIM TO COME UP WITH
SOMETHING SO SOON.
WERE YOU WORRIED ABOUT A TRADE
WAR.
>> YES.
I HAVE LONG BELIEVED THAT THE
TARIFF OF 1930 HAVE A LOT MORE
TO DO WITH THE GREAT
DEPRESSION THAN THE STOCK
MARKET THAT'S BEEN BLAMED.
IN THE 12 MONTHS THAT FOLLOWED
THE STOCK MARKET CRASH IN
1929, UNEMPLOYMENT NEVER
REACHED 10%.
WITHIN 10%.
THE TARIFF DIDN'T DO ALL OF
THAT.
CONGRATULATIONS ON WINNING THE
ATTENTION OF KANYE WEST.